Exactly, strong signal in that time period for a gradual cool down followed by another blocking regime, albeit weaker than this one and another above average rainfall period.
Nothing run of the mill about a baroclinc forced SLP in mid May.
If nothing else it's pretty cool to see a well developed CCB.
This same run in January produces a blizzard.
NAM is a soaker for most.
Luckily for most of New England the heaviest rains fall overnight into Sunday morning.
As the ULL closes off the NYC area gets plenty of wrap around moisture on Sunday afternoon.
18z GFS is very wet for Southern and Eastern New England with a stripe of 3"+ over Eastern MA.
The mid-level centers close off in a really good spot for New England. Reminds of a typical miller B.
Also if you just wanted to compare the 00z GEFS mean to the 06z mean, the 06z was clearly wetter, which tells me that it most likely had fewer progressive members.
I think we've seen too much flip flopping to have confidence in any particular evolution. I've noticed with the last few systems that the 00z runs seem to trend progressive while the 12z runs have trended slower so we'll have to see if the seesaw continues today.
It's not a phantom operational run.
The ensembles continue to show a brief 1-3 day warm up around the 20th followed by a return to normal or slightly below normal. It's all a matter of how far East the building trough sets up.
The 12z EPS mean looks mainly below normal temperature wise throughout the period. Even though a ridge does try to move East around the 20th it gets mostly shunted Southwest of NYC with a backdoor moving in for places East of the Hudson River.
It's amazing how each time it appears the ULL is getting ready to move out on the EPS it just keeps reloading.
In any event, temperatures look well below normal for at least the next ten days, possibly longer.