For some reason the developing convection in MO that the meso was issued for turned into a moderate rain blob

what a waste of a 60kt 500mb speed max so far

sometimes mini discrete storms can develop within this but so far nothing

you can see that black smoke coming from Rockton chemical plant fire  on the visible

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1049 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 1049 AM CDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING IS ONGOING   
  ACROSS OKMULGEE COUNTY WITH NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADWAYS. BETWEEN 3   
  AND 7 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN   
  SINCE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING.  
  
  HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING.  
  
  SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.  
  
  IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS,  
           URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.  

another wet day in this area and another MCS over DFW

pattern looks drier after this however

but models hinting at tropical system 8-10 days out in the western gulf

“This is the highest all of the lakes have been all year,” said Greg Waller, a service coordination hydrologist at the Weather Service. “We’re in a persistent rain pattern, and we’re to a point that a thunderstorm that produces an inch of rain is producing flooding.”

He said he has been referring to the recent rainfall as “May 2015-lite.’”

During the 2015 storms, the rainfall was greater and the affected areas were larger.

“We’re getting enough breaks for some of the water to drain downstream,” he said.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/2021/06/02/persistent-tstorms-showers-across-north-texas-prompt-flood-warnings-lake-closures/

After the wettest May on record for some areas, parts of Texas and Louisiana prepare for more

Between May 16-22, a weather reporting station south of Lake Charles, Louisiana, tallied over 21 inches of precipitation, while Baton Rouge saw a staggering 15 inches during the same period. Victoria, Texas, received 20.28 inches of rain during the month of May, eclipsing the previous record of 14.66 inches in 1993. With even more rain in the forecast for these hard-hit areas, the same locations will once again face the threat of flooding.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/06/03/weather/texas-flooding-louisiana-weekend-rainfall/index.html

Slow moving MCS with a WAA arm soaking  NW DFW metro

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 454 PM CDT, TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED BETWEEN 2 AND 4   
  INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR NEAR WEATHERFORD.   
  THESE RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING THAT IS   
  EITHER ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. 

nothing extreme the past 10 days or so ..but above normal precip continued in  east TX up into KS/MO

soil moisture wet

no death ridges

more flash flood watches up today

Lakes in DFW  area running high and some in flood and parts of the areas closed

any slow tropical systems this summer moving around the SE ridge into the area could be trouble

More heavy rain over eastern Texas and LA

Rivers and  bayous high

tropical disturbance over Gulf should move into TX with high PW values on its NE flank moving into the area

pattern has has been looked in all spring

soil very wet

any summer tropical systems could mean major flooding'

updated Soil Moisture

\

at least the Lakes are dropping

Water levels drop in Great Lakes after record-breaking highs in 2020, years of steady increases

New data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Detroit office show that all of the lakes have lower levels, with Lake Michigan and Lake Huron showing a drop of 14 inches from the same time last year, while Lake Superior is down about six inches. Lake Ontario experienced the largest drop of 28 inches, while Lake Erie fell 17 inches.

But those numbers don't mean that things have returned to normal, said Deanna Apps, a physical scientist with the Corps. Lake Michigan is still 22 inches above its average level, while Lake Superior is eight inches above average. 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/wisconsin/2021/05/17/great-lakes-water-levels-drop-after-record-breaking-highs-2020/5061171001/

After 3/4 of an inch yesterday 1.5 inches so far at PIA today

month 5.30 +2.54

since Mar 1 13.26 +3.82

with 8.53 of that since 4-28

3 weeks ago

a far cry form ORDs totals just 160 miles NE

southern LA has been extremely wet so far this year

Lake Charles had over a foot yesterday

12.49

New Orleans has been insane this spring

May 11.96 +8.81

Since March 1 34.59  +21.86

updated total precip map

NW sections got the most rains apst 24 hours

MCS moving into the area

it has been raining nonstop , mostly light to semi-moderate at times , non stop since around 3am here

15 hours straight 

About 8/10ths at PIA airport

Chicago Metro once again has it's precip shields up 

with respectable amounts southwest 

and heavy rains of 1-3 inches downstate 

models say this should continue

about 1/3 of an inch here so far but more south

new 7 day ...10 inch pixel again

in the short term a small MCS is SE of Dallas and south of the heavy rain yesterday 

DFW getting moderate rains maybe 1/3 to /12 inch this morning but will likely have to wait under tonight for next round of heavy rain based on trends

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Pretty impressive swath of 3"+ rain across NW Dallas County.

I'm interested to see what the rainfaill total will be out of Love Field (maybe upwards of 7"?). It seems to be the bullseye.

5.11 at Love

New 7 day...10 inch pixel over TX

keep in mind this doesn't start until after 00z so it doesn't include the rain falling now

3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Welp, this might not have aged well...

DFW airport has gotten the gaps so far this spring

More north and much more southeast metro

have .86 so far today and the band  set up SE a few miles

Not off to the best start in the multi day event

..Upper Trinity river basin getting hit hard..

Lake lewisville basin also got a good soaking (1-2 inches)

  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  WESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 122 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING   
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS   
  ALREADY FALLEN NEAR I-30 AND LOOP 12. SOME ROADS ARE ALREADY   
  EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN. 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0181  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1216 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTH TEXAS  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
  
VALID 161615Z - 162115Z  
  
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH-FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A  
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO  
EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  
  
DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH  
CENTRAL OK WITH AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXTENDING NORTH  
FROM SOUTH TX AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
DEVELOPED IN THIS AXIS OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH RECENT MAX ONE HOUR  
RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM KFWS OF 1.5 TO LOCALLY 2" OVER THE I-35  
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE DALLAS METRO. PWS OF 1.6" TO 1.7" WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED BY 25KT SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW WITH SBCAPE  
OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 1HR FFG IS LOWER THROUGH THE DALLAS  
METRO/ALONG I-35E (BETWEEN 2.0" AND 2.5"/HR) WHERE THE GREATER  
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. FARTHER NORTH IN EAST-CENTRAL OK ARE PWS  
AROUND 1.5" AND 1HR FFG IS GENERALLY JUST ABOVE 2.5"/HR. HOWEVER,  
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SOME LONGER  
RESIDENCE TIME FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, MAKING FOR A SIMILAR  
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OK TO NORTH TX THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
  
JACKSON  

12 model runs next 10 days

43 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

Trinity river will be one to watch. If DFW gets flooding rains,  the area around the Trinity river typically will have big problems. 

started a new thread about heavy rain/flooding so this thread can focus on tornadoes, hail, wind, etc

Tropical fire house into eastern/central  TX then and north 

Flash Flood watches up for the next 3 days in places including DFW

Most of the drought is west of this area and some places have already been wet this spring 

Soil Moisture neutral/slightly above average but well above NE Texas

7 day precip

3 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

Trinity river will be one to watch. If DFW gets flooding rains,  the area around the Trinity river typically will have big problems. 

will depend on meso features of course and luck with overlapping events

but it Looks like a mini train is setting up for Dallas county and SE Metro for round 1

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

I've never seen the Day 3 outlook feature a Moderate risk of Flooding that does NOT feature a Tropical Cyclone!



The WPC QPF is going crazy! 
 

How about 3 day Flash Flood watch

Dallas

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH   
WEDNESDAY MORNING...  

This might need it's own thread

more rainfall after the 3 day map you posted

2015 redux?

Lake Lewisville Dam problems if Denton County gets hit bad??