janetjanet998

OOZ is seems to throw back more precip a little more NW with 2nd wave although the overall system may even be a hair SE

OOZ HRRR is a baby step more NW then the 18z run with 2nd system 

 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0720 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2022  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL  
ILLINOIS  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW   
  
VALID 020120Z - 020515Z  
  
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS  
EVENING.  THIS MAY INCLUDE A DEVELOPING BAND WITH PEAK HOURLY RATES  
ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.  
  
DISCUSSION...AS THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY BROAD AND DEEP SURFACE  
CYCLONE MIGRATES INTO AND ACROSS THE JAMES BAY VICINITY THIS  
EVENING, COLD SURFACE RIDGING IS IN THE PROCESS OF NOSING SOUTHWARD  
TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER INTO MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE DEEPENING LEADING EDGE OF SUB-FREEZING  
SURFACE-BASED AIR (INCLUDING THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 850 MB) IS  
IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, LIKELY INCLUDING THE  
CARROLLTON/BRUNSWICK/MOBERLY MO AND QUINCY IL AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS.  
  
LATEST RAPID REFRESH INDICATES THAT THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH  
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING,  
INCLUDING THROUGH THE 700-500 MB LAYER, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE  
CONDUCIVE TO LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH.  AIDED BY FORCING  
FOR ASCENT BENEATH AT LEAST BROADLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW, FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT MAY BECOME MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE  
DENDRITIC GROWTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 02-03Z, BEFORE  
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH  
06-07Z.  
  
IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE GRADIENT OF A  
PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, WHERE  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND .5-.75 INCHES.  AS THE  
SURFACE-BASED SUB-FREEZING LAYER DEEPENS, A PERIOD OF SLEET MAY  
PRECEDE THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO SNOW, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH, SUPPORTED BY OUTPUT FROM THE  
21Z NCEP SREF, SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH 1-2 INCH  
PER HOUR SNOW RATES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 03-06Z.  

Light snow mixing in now on the NW side of Peoria city as of 0040Z

snowing now in Princeville NW part of Peoria county as of 030Z

Looks like Galesburg now at freezing 

KGBG 012315Z AUTO 34011KT 10SM SCT042 BKN048 OVC055 00/M02 A3005 RMK AO2
     T00001019

what is the deal with all the missing obs?

2 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Not sure where to check, are there any reports of snow hitting the ground on the NW side of precip shield? Radarscope shows it both ILX and DVN radars. Thicknesses support it.

 

 

 

Galesburg had a light snow symbol on the cod surface map at 22z

for some reason most of the obs are missing at 23z

34 and snow mixing in at Galesburg as of 22z

ILX saying 7-12 storm total for PIA in new zones with 3-5 overnight

might have 5-9 by 12z if HRRR is correct

18Z NAM in line with 18z HRRR with increased amounts 

intense band  overnight setting up from UIN to PIA to Will county

18Z HRRR has really increased total precip amounts from UIN to PIA with the first event when compared with 12z but for some reason it doesn't continue NE from PIA

1.06 to 1.59 at PIA due to a slightly  more NW placement of an intense band and has 20 inches right over the city

looks like the 18Z RAP may be doing the best with the current rain band?

it adjusted a hair ( a few miles) NW and slightly increased precip amounts overnight thru 07Z compared with 15Z from UIN to PIA

2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Getting dryer/less snow with each run in the heaviest bands in illinois and indiana too.

Is it increasing the precip south of the snow area perhaps robbing a portion of the moisture? (haven't seen the run yet)

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Hoping that isn't just a tease. Hrrr/rap are good at luring you in then tear out your heart strings. Lol

ILX cut snowfall totals in latest winter weather statement from 8-16 to 7-15 area wide since  the 3am one

I suspect its because of the more SE 2nd system and less overlap with the first band

right now my winter storm warning is until 00z Friday

I suspect after 00z  or 06z Thursday it may get downgraded to a winter weather advisory for another 1-2 inches and some blowing and drifting

interesting dilemma for ILX for the NW zones for part 2 keep the warning all the way or downgrade for the later parts

4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

12z nam still a decent hit here with 1st wave but it ends it early compared to other guidance. Nam also misses my area with 2nd wave which honestly wouldn't shock me. Hrrr/rap are being consistently more aggressive with 1st wave lasing longer here and also getting me more into 2nd wave. Million dollar question is would you trust it? I'm definitely skeptical. 

Looks like the 15z RAP has an intense band right up the river valley overnight into the morning over the city

2nd wave more south

this also means less over lapping from the first wave and max snow amounts down some

Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

These kind of discrepancies on the eve of a major storm bring back memories of the 90s and 00s. 

NGM all the way!!!  (had a north Bias)

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

That's an everyday occurrence now.

oh

I only thought east coast weenies could overload model pages 

I guess we don't have that power yet 

we did it !

COD has crashed??

as some have mentioned 21z RAP good north bump 

also seems to be rather north with part 2 at the end, at least some overlap possible with round 2 for me too if this pans out

Looking at total snow 10-1 

12z CMC seems to bump NW compared to 00z? 

edit: never mind looking back already posted

12 minutes ago, IMADreamer said:

I have never seen model's put out this much snow for my neck of the woods. This is exciting. 

and there hasn't ever been this much snow from a storm before (outside of thin meso bands) around here

edit: expect for the record snowstorm in march of (100 years ago?) 

So I'm reducing the max by 20%  in my head

16 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

yep the folks in Central IL are due and as currently modeled they get buried into Northern IN.

 

I'm living on the edge of the monster band

I am going to shift that map 15 miles SE plus reduce it by 20%  and that would put the far NW Peoria Metro around 8 but the SE about 16 and even more just SE

The surface low isn't that strong therefore the winds will be rather only moderate

This may mean the final total may closer to the Kuchera then if we have 50+ MPH wind gusts tearing the dendrites apart