janetjanet998
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Posts posted by janetjanet998
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1032 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2022
A WINTER STORM WARNING AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN EFFECT
UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CHICAGO METRO WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE SNOW BAND DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY DRIFT
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST
AND HELP CONFINE THE BAND TO LAKE MICHIGAN. BECAUSE OF THIS RISK
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COOK COUNTY AND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUPAGE, NORTHERN WILL, AND
SOUTHERN COOK COUNTIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FOR LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE COUNTY, IL HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN THAT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE COUNTY. SIMILARLY, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE
COUNTY, IN HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO CURRENT WEBCAMS SHOWING THE
MAJOR HIGHWAYS ARE CLEAR.
AN ADDITIONAL POCKET OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DE KALB, GRUNDY, KANE, KENDALL, AND LA SALLE
COUNTIES WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE SNOW COVERED
ROADS. THIS POCKET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA DUE TO
THE OBSERVED IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.-
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0800 AM SNOW 1 W WILMETTE 42.08N 87.74W
01/28/2022 M7.5 INCH COOK IL PUBLIC
REPORT OF 7.5 INCHES RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA.
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cloud tops are even cool on the infrared
12z HRRR seems too weak inland for the 13z time stamp and likely beyond
need to watch out for any meso lows later that may keep the band going on its west flank
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4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:
Still snowing at the lakefront
18z GFS has NE wind off of lake for 36 hours with lake enhancement then pure lake effect with delta T's falling from about 6 to almost 20 towards the end
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NWS Storm Prediction Center
@NWSSPC
Today (12/15) has set the record for the most number of hurricane force (75+ mph) thunderstorm wind gusts in a day (55, and counting) since 2004. The previous record was from August 10, 2020 with 53.
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Mike Seidel
@mikeseidel
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9m
DSM gusted to 74 MPH, higher than with the squall line.
@NWSDesMoines
says that's the highest non-thunderstorm #wind gust in 51 years!-
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wind advisory for me upgraded to high wind warning for gusts up to 65MPH
so will they issue a severe thunderstorm warning later for a line of light showers that may mix down the highest winds????
should that be thunderstorm wind damage or non thunderstorm wind damage??
let the debate begin
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19 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:
Mods, please feel free to delete if it's too ranty or off-topic, but...
If indeed the tornado is "only" rated an EF4, on the grounds that it didn't impact a structure of sufficient build material to award the "5" rating, I think the system could be very problematic.
Yes, it's true, families don't care about ratings. But we, as scientists, should. The entire purpose of the rating system is for future safety.
If the rating system is built such that the only way to award a 5 rating is for the tornado to hit a modern, metropolitan area with structures that are brand new and built to the most rigid standards, it could actually be a relatively discriminatory system regarding less well off communities.
I do not believe the best solution for the Fujita scale is to say, "Sorry, your community wasn't wealthy enough to have a a building to meet our (increasingly stringent) standards." That is, IMO, not the best application of the reason we have rating systems.
At that point, assessors are essentially saying it's impossible for an EF5 tornado to go through a rural town like the ones I grew up in, because we have absolutely nothing close to a modern medical center like in Joplin, or anything of the like. Most of the homes in the area where I grew up were constructed closer to the civil war than present day. The idea that an EF5 can't hit where my parents live because it's a small old town is a blind spot in our science, IMO. We can and should do better to get more data.
I sincerely believe that we have more than enough technology in 2021 to be far less narrow with what constitutes EF5 level damage, and that the public (who DOES pay a lot of attention to these ratings) is not served well by being overly stingy with the "5" designation. I'm deeply frustrated by the idea that the EF5 has suddenly become some kind of unattainable rating, unless it strikes a town center or an area where wealthy people who can afford to have extremely well-built homes live.
Imagine telling someone that their town is just too poor to convince the assessors that the tornado was strong enough to damage a rich person's home in a similar manner. Unacceptable. Completely unacceptable in my view.
tl;dr: there should be a way to discover whether or not a tornado was of sufficient strength regardless of where it strikes, with the one potential exception of it striking a completely open relatively barren field. If it hits where people live, we should do EVERYTHING in our power to know how strong it was, even if it only strikes a single home.
I actually had a similar long comment earlier but lost it and didn't fell like retying it with all the IA stuff going on
short version:
What percent of homes are "well built" it can't be that many.
We had a couple $300,000 homes reduced to clean slabs here in the Washington IL Tornado...high end F4
so not only does a tornado have to have winds of 200+MPH it has to magically hit the small percent of structures that are "well built" to get an EF5 rating in that respect
no way many of the F5s in the 1970's in a different era would be EF5's today
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NWS Twin Cities
@NWSTwinCities
There's 10 of us here working. No one has seen a tornado watch for Minnesota or Wisconsin during December....Until now....
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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CASS...SOUTHWESTERN GUTHRIE...AUDUBON AND NORTHWESTERN
ADAIR COUNTIES...
AT 502 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ATLANTIC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO CROSSING INTERSTATE 80
NORTH OF ATLANTIC. -
The part of the line in NE KS into Nw MO better stop trying to break up into discrete cells
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Just noticed this ....a Tornado warning is South Dakota....in December....I didn't have that on my Bingo card
SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
it's just the "finger" of the state but still,,,,,
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several currently on the ground, also storms in NE kansas look better then expected tornado potential wise
HURSTON NE-
358 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR THURSTON
COUNTY...
AT 358 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PENDER, OR 29
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
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Valley , radar site, in the path
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
349 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021
NEC055-155-152230-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-211215T2230Z/
DOUGLAS NE-SAUNDERS NE-
349 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR WESTERN
DOUGLAS AND EASTERN SAUNDERS COUNTIES...
AT 348 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF MEAD,
OR 25 MILES WEST OF OMAHA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VALLEY -
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
342 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021
NEC025-053-055-067-097-109-131-133-153-155-177-152215-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-211215T2215Z/
SARPY NE-WASHINGTON NE-LANCASTER NE-DODGE NE-JOHNSON NE-OTOE NE-
DOUGLAS NE-PAWNEE NE-SAUNDERS NE-GAGE NE-CASS NE-
342 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST
FOR WESTERN SARPY...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...LANCASTER...
SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...WESTERN JOHNSON...WESTERN OTOE...WESTERN
DOUGLAS...WESTERN PAWNEE...SAUNDERS...GAGE AND WESTERN CASS
COUNTIES...
AT 341 PM CST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CEDAR BLUFFS TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLUE
SPRINGS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS.
HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.
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2 hours ago, madwx said:
Monthly all time high temp records are going to start falling. Des Moines is first
And Cedar Rapids is next
19z
DES MOINES CLOUDY 74
CEDAR RAPIDS PTSUNNY 72
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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR WEST
CENTRAL CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...
AT 147 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AYR, OR 14 MILES
SOUTH OF HASTINGS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. -
couplet heading for Hastings
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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:
Can someone explain why they create a box, but then include counties that lie entirely outside the box?
Last event it was the opposite for me for the first watch
I was inside the Box but Peoria county wasn't included as a county
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first of the day
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 145 PM CST.
* AT 130 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMPBELL, OR 32 MILES SOUTHWEST O -
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 563 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 120 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA NORTHEASTERN KANSAS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI EASTERM NEBRASKA EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 800 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 90 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ACROSS IOWA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA AND MISSOURI THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 90 MPH POSSIBLE. A MIX OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES, WITH A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.
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TOR warning Memphis
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still
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1251 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
* UNTIL 130 AM EST/1230 AM CST/.
* AT 1250 AM EST/1150 PM CST/, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF HARDINSBURG, MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
Feb 1 -3 GHD III
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
I could tell it was a tad north without even looking just by the dozens of new replies since I checked a couple of hours ago LOL
A few more ticks north, me and the heart of Chicago will be in the middle of the insane model output band instead of the northern edge