janetjanet998

LOT has been dealing wth LES somewhere in their CWA for over 36 hours,..impressive for that side of the lake

edit: you can make out the mesolow on short wave IR over central LM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1004 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
955 PM CST  
  
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN HIGHER  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES INTO PORTER COUNTY, IN THROUGH EARLY  
OVERNIGHT, AS WELL AS EXTENDING CLOUDS OVER SOME PARTS OF   
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LONGER AND BUMPING UP FORECAST LOWS THERE.  
  
WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (FOR THIS EVENT) IS NEARING THE END, IT HAS   
FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HAD A CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE SNOW   
SHOWERS INTO PORTER COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN WELL ESTABLISHED ON LOW-  
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A PRESUMED MESO-LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART   
OF THE LAKE PER ANALYZED WIND STREAMLINES ON HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. AS  
HAS BEEN THE CASE, THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE NOT THROUGH THE  
ROOF (FOR INSTANCE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF ONLY 6,000 FT), BUT   
BECAUSE OF THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVELS, THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS   
OVERLAPPED BY THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD DEPTHS. WE SUSPECT   
SOME PARTS OF PORTER COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED AROUND TO A LITTLE OVER   
2 INCHES THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR AND WEBCAM IMAGERY, AND COULD  
FINISH WITH SOME NIGHTTIME TOTALS OF 3-4 IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF   
NORTHERN PORTER. EVEN IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN, FEEL THE NATURE OF   
THIS AFTER THE PROLONGED EVENT IS BEST HANDLED WITH G-NOWS, A   
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, AND OTHER MESSAGING.  

  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
931 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
926 AM CST  
  
WHILE OUR MAIN SYSTEM SNOW HAS ENDED, LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES  
BOTH ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS   
MORNING. AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WAUKEGAN HAVE BEEN   
REPORTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER ONE MILE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW  
IS ONSHORE BOTH IN NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING,   
BUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES THE FOCUS SHOULD REALLY BE IN NORTHWEST   
IN. RADAR DEPICTIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY FLURRIES   
ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER TODAY BUT THERE   
ARE SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT   
NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH MOST OF THE TODAY. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL  
CONTINUE AT IN SPOTS.   
  
KMD  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
910 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
(ISSUED 910 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021)  
  
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE   
SNOWFALL WITH LAKE BAND PERSISTING. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO MOVE IT  
OFFSHORE PRETTY QUICK HERE THIS MORNING BUT RADAR TRENDS ARE   
SUPPORTING MORE PERSISTENCE THAN PROGRESSION AT THIS POINT. SPC  
MESO PAGE SHOWS THE IMPRESSIVE CONVERGENCE AND THERMODYNAMICS AT  
PLAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND.  
  
WILL LEAVE END TIMES TO HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW AND PONDER ANY SORT  
OF EXTENSION BASED ON TRENDS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.   
  
COLLAR  

LES still decent and over SE WI with lake county IL getting light snow Waukegan now at 3/4 mile Vis

Racine had SN+ at 14z and both Racine and MKE have 1/2 mile vis with SN at 15z

HRRR seems slightly too far east with the band...RAP better and brings 1-3 more for eastern Cook county later

  
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
850 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0849 AM     SNOW             1 WNW WIND POINT        42.79N 87.79W  
02/16/2021  M14.8 INCH       RACINE             WI   PUBLIC 

band now east of Midway 

you can tell on the I-55 west of Central Ave IDOT cam just NW of them Vis is up 

and nothing in obs this hour about snow depth and vis up to 1/2mile

meanwhile:

0930 PM     HEAVY SNOW       EVANSTON                42.04N 87.69W  
02/15/2021  M12.0 INCH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            GETTING UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. 22 INCH   
            SNOW DEPTH.   
  

8 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This thing just parked over the northside

can't ever quite make it to ORD though with the pushes

0 for 3 now

the storm total difference between ORD and MDW will be LOL X 10 

due to the above plus  *  snow measurements early on at ORD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL  
928 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0926 PM     HEAVY SNOW       3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT     41.74N 87.78W  
02/15/2021  M11.9 INCH       COOK               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER     
  
            3 INCHES FROM 7:45 PM TO 8:55 PM; SD 23   
            INCHES.   
 

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

KMDW 160253Z 34015KT 1/4SM R31C/2400V2800FT +SN BLSN VV003 M13/M16 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP202 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 3/24 P0002 60005 T11331161 58002 $

radar showing the insane rates may be slipping east a tad of them now... between them and the loop..and shifting west across northern Cook

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

KMDW 160153Z 34014KT 1/4SM R31C/1400V3500FT +SN BLSN VV005 M12/M16 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP212 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 3/22 P0002 T11221156 $

Midway saying 30 inch depth or bust

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Cook Co crusher...




.

triple team??

1)system snow

2)old main band almost north-south

3)smaller bands moving in from the east?

no wonder Aleking getting 3+ inch per hour rates

still cranking

KMDW 160053Z 35014G20KT 1/4SM R31C/3000V5000FT +SN BLSN VV006 M11/M14 A3007
     RMK AO2 SLP208 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 2/19 P0001 T11111144 $

there still appears to be a main band of LES coming ashore Lake./Cook but south east of that several multi-bands moving into central cook with heavier system snow overlap and even yellow pixels on COD (32 dBZ) radar which is very impressive for dry fluffy snow

0600 PM     SNOW             3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT     41.75N 87.79W  
02/15/2021  M6.0 INCH        COOK               IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS   
  
            EVENT TOTAL AS OF 6 PM CST. 

nice long fetch on MKE radar coming ashore Lake IL/Cook border and extending SSW through central Cook county

enhanced snows also coming up I-55 from central IL

KMDW 152353Z 35016KT 1/4SM R31C/2800V4000FT +SN BLSN VV005 M11/M14 A3006
     RMK AO2 SLP204 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 2/17 4/017 P0001 60002 T11111139
     11078 21128 58034 $

huge west push of the lake bands..(main band and weaker band to the south)really booking it west...in fact may "overshoot" where it was expected to stall 

edit: same thing with the bands off of the WI shore per MKE radar

KMDW 152253Z 02016G23KT 1/4SM R31C/1400V2600FT +SN BLSN VV008 M08/M12 A3009
     RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP211 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 1/16 P0001 T10831117 $

Midway is that band for now before it snakes back north

KMDW 152223Z 03011G21KT 1/4SM R31C/1600V3500FT +SN 

looks like a western (north) shift starting in the LES band off shore again so it may snake back north again here soon

Wrigleville cam back in the band

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyville/?cam=wrigleyville

This will only grow with todays system and Thursday..keep in mind even if it warms up for a brief time a lot of the melting and any rainfall will just get absorbed into the snowpack at first priming for a big release

getting very worried about IL river  flooding here and upstream with the upper basin and tributaries with deep snowpack

even the LES isn't helping, eastern cook county used to drain into the lake, now every drop flows this way 

models showing a decent system next weekend

ORD just NW of band which had drifted a couple miles south recently

1200 PM     SNOW             OHARE AIRPORT           41.98N 87.90W  
02/15/2021  M1.6 INCH        COOK               IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS   
  
            SNOW TOTAL AS OF 12 PM.   

1200 PM SNOW 3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.75N 87.79W   02/15/2021

M2.4 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS     SNOW TOTAL AS OF 12 PM.

"SMACK DAB BETWEEN O'HARE AND MIDWAY" = does not exist in official climate records

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1221 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021  
   
UPDATE...1215 PM CST  
  
TWO DOMINANT BANDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE COOK COUNTY AND LAKE  
COUNTY IL. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVERGENCE WITH A  
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE CHICAGO CRIB AND NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND,  
AND A SEPARATE AREA OF WEAKER CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH SIDE   
OF CHICAGO AND INTO LAKE COUNTY IL. REPORTS FROM WILMETTE AND   
EVANSTON WERE 4" IN 2 HOURS FROM THIS SNOW.   
  
RAP FORECAST OF CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THIS BAND WILL SHIFT TO  
CENTRAL COOK COUNTY, POSSIBLY SMACK DAB BETWEEN O'HARE AND MIDWAY  
(LIKELY TO INCLUDE MIDWAY AIRPORT) AND WILL LIKELY BECOME THE   
AREA OF FOCUS OF THE LAKE BAND THIS AFTERNOON.  
  
MEANWHILE, SYNOPTIC SNOW IS CRUISING ON IN, AND EXPECT A FASTER  
START TO SNOW TODAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE  
FOR A MESSY AFTERNOON COMMUTE AREA WIDE.   
  
KMD