janetjanet998
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Posts posted by janetjanet998
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HIGH risk still
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES CONTINUES TONIGHT. MUCH OF
THE GREATEST RISK IS OVER ALABAMA.
..01Z UPDATE
LLJ IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGRESSING
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ELONGATED MCS THAT IS GROWING UPSCALE FROM
EASTERN MS INTO SOUTHEASTERN LA. WHILE THIS MCS IS GRADUALLY
MATURING, NUMEROUS EMBEDDED MESOS ARE NOTED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE DISCRETE STORMS THAT CONTINUE
AHEAD OF THE MCS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW SUPERCELLS.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS FAVOR TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE
PRIMARY CHANGES AT 01Z ARE TO LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THE WAKE
OF THE EVOLVING MCS.
..DARROW.. 03/18/2021 -
one lone tornado warning at this time
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8-10 active TOR warnings but nothing insane right now or TDS
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21 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
ALC021-172300-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210317T2300Z/
CHILTON AL-
521 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
CHILTON COUNTY...
AT 521 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER POOLES CROSSROADS, OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLANTON,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
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LLJ will be ramping up from here on out
Instability perhaps not as much as forecast but still 1000-1800 CAPE (vs 1500-2200)
winds backing over N MS now too
tons of discrete storms from MS into AL in two east-west lines
if storms can remain that way when LLJ ramps up..look out
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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BLOUNT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.
* AT 515 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER KIMBERLY, OR 7
MILES NORTH OF GARDENDALE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
ALC021-172300-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210317T2300Z/
CHILTON AL-
516 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
CHILTON COUNTY...
AT 516 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER POOLES
CROSSROADS, OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLANTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. -
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
455 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
ALC073-172230-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-210317T2230Z/
JEFFERSON AL-
455 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...
AT 454 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BROOKSIDE, OR
NEAR GARDENDALE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...
CORRECTED TO CHANGE I-80 TO HIGHWAY-80
..SUMMARY
A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS STRONG AND
A FEW LONG-TRACK, POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES. THE INITIAL ROUND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE SWATH SHOULD
EMANATE FROM FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE
FIRST CHANGE IS TO MOVE THE HIGH RISK AREA SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MORE
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE 45 PERCENT
CONTOUR HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD, TO ENCOMPASS THE FIRST
PHASE OF THE TORNADO OUTBREAK ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE
NEWEST TORNADO OUTBREAK MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST THREAT
ALONG A CORRIDOR EAST-NORTHEAST FROM NEAR JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY-80 CORRIDOR INTO THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA.
THE SECOND IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE,
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
THE THIRD CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE ENHANCED RISK FROM SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND IT APPEARS, THAT THE DISTRIBUTION OF REPORTS WILL BE OVER A
BROADER AREA AND MORE ISOLATED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. -
SE AR
DESHA AR-
439 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
DESHA COUNTY...
AT 438 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MCGEHEE, OR 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF DERMOTT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. -
2 minutes ago, mob1 said:
The storm near Gilbertown is going nuts
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
417 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT.
* AT 416 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF GILBERTOWN, OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF
BUTLER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. -
Just now, Macintosh said:
Tons of convection and rain all over Alabama at present. Hard to believe there could be this much activity now and still have a risk for later tonight. Would think the atmosphere is getting worked over pretty well at this point, but not seeing any indication of that.
storms hanging up the front over AL..winds remain backed and it will be that way for a while...unstable air just to the south and will help sustain storms as they hit the front
any storm hitting that front will really spin up
like they have been
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3
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a worst case would be a NE tornado moving just south of the interstate because it would tear up dense urban areas for many miles due to the shape of the urban layout
the big ones seem to go just north of that area north of downtown
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1 minute ago, Calderon said:
Likely about to get a sizeable tornado NW of Birmingham if it's not down just yet. Velocity continues to strengthen & tighten.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
226 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
ALC073-127-172015-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210317T2015Z/
WALKER AL-JEFFERSON AL-
226 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...
AT 226 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST JEFFERSON,
OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF DORA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. -
Oh boy
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 220 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT. * AT 220 PM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KNOXVILLE, OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF EUTAW, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
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CELL NW of birmingham now warned..
now 6 warned cells in that line
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don't forget this area
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 171818Z - 171915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ARCING LINE OF SUPERCELLS/LINE SEGMENTS IS LIKELY FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH HAS ALLOWED SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE 18Z KLZK RAOB HAD A STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER, BUT MODIFYING THIS SOUNDING FOR LOW 70S TEMPERATURES AND LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA YIELDS AROUND 500 TO 750 J/KG MLCAPE AND A NEARLY UNCAPPED PROFILE. EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUGGESTS THIS REMAINING INHIBITION HAS LIKELY ERODED AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVERHEAD. THEREFORE, SEVERAL LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE HOUR. OVERALL, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 150 TO 200 M2/S2 PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW MAY LEAD TO A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO/LANDSPOUT THREAT. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
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Lots of storms over SE MS now with non-warned weaker couplets
the key word is LOTS...as in maybe too many for this to get really out of hand if storms have spacing issues
time will tell
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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1207 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 100 PM CDT.
* AT 1207 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MILL CREEK, OR
13 MILES WEST OF WAYNESBORO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CRANDALL AROUND 1255 PM CDT. -
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1 minute ago, Upper Level LOL said:
Wonder how high the probabilities on that watch will be
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
High (90%)-
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2
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RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2021
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
CENTRAL TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SUMMARY...NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES. -
Just now, ATDoel said:
Those cells just west of Birmingham look to already have some broad rotation, the event wasn't supposed to start until 1...
yep..already getting that look and are discrete
may really start to spin when they hit that warm front
right around the time they are over a major Metro area too
March 17-18 Severe Weather Event
in Southeastern States
Posted
MLCAPE a little better.....but early convection really prevented instability from reaching its potential