janetjanet998

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
335 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
ALC019-252100-  
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-210325T2100Z/  
CHEROKEE AL-  
335 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY...  
      
AT 335 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER FORNEY, MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0229 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 251929Z - 252130Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL  
INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PERSIST THROUGH  
THE EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY 21Z.  
  
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT INTO FAR  
SOUTHWESTERN TN EXTENDING EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN AL.  
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE  
LOW FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO CENTRAL KY.  
  
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS, GRADUAL WARMING IS TAKING PLACE, WITH  
TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE LOW 70S F. MUCAPE CURRENTLY REMAINS BELOW  
1000 J/KG AS A RESULT OF DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F.  
  
STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY SHOULD  
AID MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF MS INTO MIDDLE TN, WITH AREAS OF  
HEATING HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AS WELL. SHEAR WILL BECOME  
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN THE 21-03Z TIME  
FRAME, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE MID 60S F  
DEWPOINTS ARRIVE LATER TODAY. WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE,  
EFFECTIVE SRH MAY REACH 400-500 M2/S2.  
  
..JEWELL/HART.. 03/25/2021  

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0233 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO  
RIVER VALLEY REGION  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 251933Z - 252130Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE COMING HOURS AS A SURFACE  
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE  
LATE AFTERNOON.  
  
DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE  
SHOWN 2-3 MB SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHEAST AR INTO THE LOWER  
OH RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST AR  
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT  
LIFTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE  
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW A HIGHER THETA-E AIR  
MASS (NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) TO OVERSPREAD  
THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY REGIONS AND ALLOW  
MLCAPE TO INCREASE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS ARE FORECAST  
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE LOW, AND SOUTHWESTERLY 60-70 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK  
SHEAR WILL HELP SUPPORT DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE STORM MODES. ALONG  
WITH A HAIL/WIND THREAT, BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE OPEN WARM  
SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ESRH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 AND A  
TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. RECENT  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION WITHIN THIS REGION MAY OCCUR  
WITHIN THE 22-00 UTC TIME FRAME. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED IN THE COMING HOURS TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.  
  
..MOORE/HART.. 03/25/2021  

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
220 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
ALC115-121-251945-  
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-210325T1945Z/  
TALLADEGA AL-ST. CLAIR AL-  
220 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR NORTH  
CENTRAL TALLADEGA AND NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES...  
          
AT 220 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RIVERSIDE, OR  
NEAR PELL CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
146 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTH CENTRAL TALLADEGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
  NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
  ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
  
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 145 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER MOUNT LAUREL, OR NEAR CHELSEA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
  45 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NO

hopefully it stays south  of highway 119..more rural

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
133 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
ALC073-117-251900-  
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210325T1900Z/  
SHELBY AL-JEFFERSON AL-  
133 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...  
          
AT 133 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED OVER OAK MOUNTAIN AMPHITHEATER, OR OVER PELHAM, MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

MS

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
103 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
  SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
  NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
  NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
  
* UNTIL 200 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 103 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER PRENTISS, OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF PINOLA, MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  

Clearing out nicely TN into central KY

ACUS11 KWNS 251728  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 251728   
ALZ000-251930-  
  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1228 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50...  
  
VALID 251728Z - 251930Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 50 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...A TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER NORTHERN HALE COUNTY MAY PERSIST  
WITH TORNADO THREAT EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  
  
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL, NOW TORNADIC AND LIKELY  
PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO, CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS  
NORTHERN HALE COUNTY, AND HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING.  
  
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS CELL IS UNSTABLE AND WARMING AS THE WARM  
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NORTHEAST OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA.  
LATEST VWP OUT OF BMX SHOWS 0-1 SRH OF 329 M2/S2 GIVEN A MOTION OF  
245/38 KT, WHICH SUPPORTS A STRONG TORNADO.  
  
GIVEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EAST OF THE CELL, THE TORNADO THREAT MAY  
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS SEVERAL  
COUNTIES IN ALABAMA.  
  
..JEWELL.. 03/25/2021  

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
1227 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
ALC007-125-251815-  
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-210325T1815Z/  
TUSCALOOSA AL-BIBB AL-  
1227 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA AND CENTRAL BIBB COUNTIES...  
          
AT 1227 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED NEAR LOW GAP, OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUSCALOOSA, MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
ALC007-125-251815-  
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-210325T1815Z/  
TUSCALOOSA AL-BIBB AL-  
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA AND CENTRAL BIBB COUNTIES...  
          
AT 1221 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNDVILLE, OR  
16 MILES SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 49   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   950 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2021     THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS     * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM   UNTIL 400 AM CDT.     * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  

A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80   MPH POSSIBLE   SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5   INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE    

SUMMARY...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST   THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE INTENSE CLUSTERS   SHOULD EMANATE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TOWARDS THE   I-35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL TEXAS.  

Cell TOR warned now

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 23 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA...AND FAR WESTERN  
ILLINOIS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY   
  
VALID 231744Z - 231945Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WINDS  
AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THOUGH A TORNADO THREAT MAY  
EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
  
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND  
EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN PARTIAL CLEARING WITHIN A MID-LEVEL DRY  
SLOT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STACKED SURFACE/UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  
THIS CLEARING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE  
LOW TO MID 60S AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. DESPITE A MARGINAL  
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE  
LOW/MID 50S), RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AROUND 500 J/KG  
MLCAPE IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO. DEEPENING CUMULUS AND  
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SUPPORT THIS IDEA AND INDICATE BUOYANCY IS  
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST TRANSIENT UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY  
SHOULD INCREASE TO SOME DEGREE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.   
  
RECENT ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL MARGINAL, BUT SUFFICIENT, EFFECTIVE BULK  
WIND SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SUPPORT DISCRETE,  
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEP VIA  
DIURNAL HEATING, A WIND AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE. GIVEN  
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR (PER  
REGIONAL VWPS), A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE  
ROBUST STORMS. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN  
MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY  
REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FURTHER EAST INTO IL. HOWEVER, THIS  
LOCATION MAY SEE THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET AUGMENTS EFFECTIVE  
SRH. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.  
  
..MOORE/HART.. 03/23/2021  
   

temps already 60ish in MO with dewpoints 50-53

nice clearing out

update

..MO/IA/IL  
  
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN KS.  THIS LOW  
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST IA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A  
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA AND WESTERN IL.   
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING/HEATING OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN MO,  
WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F WILL COMBINE  
WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 400-800  
J/KG.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS  
CAPABLE OF HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.  12Z CAM  
GUIDANCE VARIES ON CORRIDOR OF MAX POTENTIAL, AND LOW CAPE VALUES  
LIMIT THE CONFIDENCE OF A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.  NEVERTHELESS,  
AN UPGRADE TO SLGT IS POSSIBLE AT 20Z IF A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF  
CONCERN DEVELOPS.  

MO/IA/IL  
  
AN ARC OF CONVECTION, INCLUDING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,  
SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY IN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED  
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT, JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE STACKED LOW, AND  
ON THE EASTERN RIM OF ITS COLD-CORE REGION ALOFT.  THIS ACTIVITY --  
INITIALLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN  
MO AND PERHAPS INTO WESTERN IL -- SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TO  
NORTHWESTWARD IN STEP WITH THE PREVAILING CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD.  AT  
LEAST MARGINAL TORNADO AND WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXISTS THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON, DECREASING THIS EVENING OVER IA AND NORTHWESTERN IL.  
  
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE NOTCH OF  
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THAT WILL  
TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, EAST-NORTHEAST OF AND  
IN STEP WITH THE LOW.  MIDLEVEL DCVA/COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO  
STEEPENING LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY  
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION, EVEN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE  
LOW/MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH WARMER.  THE MAIN CONCERN/  
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY-LAYER  
DESTABILIZATION AVAILABLE TO THE CONVECTIVE ARC, AND IN TURN, THE  
MAGNITUDE AND WIDTH OF BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE  
LONGEVITY.  BASELINE MLCAPE VALUES OF 300-700 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN A  
NARROW PLUME IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE ARC -- HIGHER WITH ANY  
SUSTAINED SLOTS OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE INFLOW  
REGION.  
  
MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND IF THEY BECOME MORE  
FAVORABLE, A SMALL CORRIDOR OF GREATER UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES  
COULD BE ADDED WITHIN THE EXPANDED "MARGINAL" AREA IN A LATER  
UPDATE.  

4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Day 2 marginal introduced...for the far southern MS valley, lol.

   
..MIDDLE MS VALLEY  
  
SURFACE HEATING WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS  
NORTHERN MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL AND EASTERN IA. HOWEVER, STEEPENING  
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG  
MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT  
COULD AID IN A FEW ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CELLS NEAR THE SURFACE  
LOW/TRIPLE POINT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY  
REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN LIMITED HEATING. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY  
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO  
LOW/CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE PROBABILITIES.  

5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Cells in NE AL beginning to show more signs of developing, embedded mesocyclones. 

2 TOR warned now

LLJ working its magic as usual starting this time at night in the SE

20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Would you say that the probability of no tornados per unit area in a high risk area is the same as a tornado per unit area in the slight risk area?  

Areas in the high risk had tornados.  A majority of the tornado reports (as of that graphic) were in the high area.  What percentage of the high risk area needs to have a tornado for it not to be considered a bust?  

You could argue that sliver of the slight was also a bust since it had numerous warnings and a tornado report... or could you?

 

I think that some people think it "busted" because those Tornadoes happened rather early and were not part of a second "main event" of long tracked tornadoes moving from MS into AL in the evening that never materialized

just for the record as I have said before  over the years, I don't think there is sucha  thing as a "bust" since its a RISK factor...but then again I'm old fashioned

A high probability,   or risk,  of something happing doesn't mean it will happen every time 

5 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

What is it with the past 7 years and the primary modes of severe weather occurring outside the high risk area? Is there something seriously wrong with our understanding of tornadogenesis, or is it just small n and "bad" luck?

Data overload

I liked the old days better (ie 1990s) .broad brush of general , slight. moderate.  or high 

not trying to narrow it down into small corridors using silly percentages

There are no active Tornado Or Severe thunderstorm warnings at this time _0230z

Just now, ATDoel said:

yeah I see that....I wonder how realistic it is. 

you can see the front on the JAN radar just west of jackson but Jackson only 68/64

The MCS ate away most of the instability that the front was supposed to use for the original "2am' event

The cells over central AL are running into stable air

and the storms over SW AL seem to be in a line now which is mostly outflow dominated

HRRR tries to redevelop stuff just behind the current line in a couple of hours..not sure how much juice will be left for true surface based stuff

4 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

 it just me or is the main show moving ahead of schedule? 

MCS pushing things along 

18z NAM NEST  still had the line back in central MS at 02z and 18z HRR to