Thanatos_I_Am

At 72, 0z ICON is slower and a little deeper than the GFS. FWIW. 

48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well two things. I like snow without a breath of wind. I also love watching it ... in the daylight. So no, there won’t be any 1am snow party for me.

I always root against a windy mess. Let me watch the fatties float down in the daylight, not some pixie wind driven crap at 3am. 

Since it's an off time, didn't see anyone comment, but the 18z RGEM looks much more "Euroish" than "GFSish". On 500 Vort. 

Gotta think some of that coastal precip on the 18z ICON would be frozen, around DCA. Surface goes north of 32 for 1/2 panels. 

Surface depiction alone ( that's all I see out right now ), the 18z NAM looks a lot more Euro like than the GFS at 84. 

ETA: Looking similar with the 500 Vort as well. 

Just now, Deck Pic said:

lol... wow. Stormvista always seemed to be conservative with the snowfall.. but wow. 

Just now, stormtracker said:

I think that most of my fellow DC'ers would take the gamble on sleet to get something like this?

Absolutely. Cant speak for others, but I’d risk sleet for 12-18 then an easy 4-8.

Just now, stormtracker said:

you on pivotal?

Tropical. 

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Probably the most important hour of our lives coming up.    

The most important Euro run of all time is always the next one. 

Just now, WVclimo said:

This is QPF on the GGEM after the coastal takes over.  For us “westerners” this is all snow.

Man, this panel tells a lot. This is an incredibly tight set up as is. Transfer a little later... most of us are outside looking in for costal action. Transfer a little earlier... might be double digits region wide. This is going to come down to the wire for the coastal stuff. Exciting and terrifying. 

Because the CMC is showing a better result IMBY, I now have to ask... it scores better than GFS recently, no? Thought I had read that on here earlier. 

Based on low positions, the precip/snow mean at 144 is missing plenty more to come for some solutions? 

@Cobaltmind sharing the control? Curious to compare with OP. 

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

If the euro didn’t show 30-40”, we’d be ecstatic to see most models showing a solid storm 120 hours out. A bit of a shift in the ridge out west, or the confluence to our NE, or a slight change in how strung out the look is at h5 is the difference between 5” and 12+ area wide. 
 

Certainly not a time to be panicking.  

FWIW ridging seemed better this run. Onto the EPS, hoping those provide some clarity. 

Just now, ErinInTheSky said:

You know I think I’d save myself a lot of the pain that comes with this hobby if I just limited myself to only looking at models 96 hours out, lol.

Why did we choose a hobby full of absolute failure at basically every turn? 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I can but if I could only lock in one thing at this time I’ll take the uncomplicated one.

I want to swing for the fences but I also don’t want to end up hitting a fly ball and having it get caught right before it goes over the fence. That’s always disappointing.

We’ve hit 30 warning track bombs in a row..what’s one more at this point. Haha.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Am I the only person kind of rooting for the easy 4-6” event Sunday-Monday that we see on the GFS/CMC/ICON instead of this complicated looking stall on the EURO? I’m looking for a safer investment at this point.

Idk, after the last few years of absolute misery I’m sorta all in for something big. We’re used to failure, might as well swing for the fences.

PSU aint gonna like this one. 

Man, she’s weaker so far.

Any word on the GEPS for those who can see?

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Cmc is definitely not the euro. But it’s kinda a half way solution between the euro and gfs. Sound familiar?  When did we have that scenario.  

go ahead... remind us who won out.. 

Just now, yoda said:

00z CMC has 1037mb HP in N Quebec at 120... 1007mb SLP in E KY

Where you getting the CMC so quickly, wxbell? 

At 144, definitive trend south. Northern MD gets in on the coastal. Different than 18z for sure. 

Para looking better with the WAA. 

Riding further west at 102