Thanatos_I_Am

Have to admit - a lot of respect for those of you who can handle the rug pulls like this every couple of weeks, each year. Used to follow the models religiously and found that the ROI around here is… less than ideal (surprise). Probably some sort of confirmation bias in saying this, but it really does feel like models cave to whichever one paints a worse storm. This region feels cursed at times. 

Began to enjoy this hobby a lot more when I accepted that the mid Atlantic, specifically DC proper, is just not a great place for snow. 2016 doesn’t happen every year.. or even every five years. Don’t obsess over the 72 hour + HECS depictions and it all becomes a bit more tolerable. That being said, hope for once in my time in DC we buck the trend and bring that major storm back. 

First JebWalk in NW DC. Absolutely gorgeous outside. Not sure there’s a more beautiful city when covered in snow. Steady SN seems rates are picking up as well. 

Bone dry in DuPont Circle DC. 

Puking fatties on 495 near silver spring. Complete stand still naturally..

Very very very small flurries in Jessup. 

Would not want to be forecasting on the shore… wow the disparity in amounts is crazy!

Anyone have a good example of a Miller B that worked out for the DC metro? Would be cool to learn more about those situations.

1 minute ago, MDsnowPRO said:

Wouldn’t we rather it be Suppressed now versus a cutter? Seems like in the final 24 hours before onset, these  things seem weird to start to move west. Or does the current high placement not allow that? 

If that trend benefits DC you can guarantee it ain’t happening. 

There’s zero scientific method behind it, but betting against the model that shows the most snow seems like a sure thing every time.

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Is there a place or website I can place a bet on if the euro holds serve or flops? 

I got $100 on it if you’re betting a hold 

18z GFS is laughably bad for us DC folk

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

 i am having a hard time recalling a more steadily modeled storm. Like, it hasn't wavered in terms of outcomes, for days. 

Jan. 2016 was locked in from basically a week out. There was one Euro run that went south but came right back. That was an insane week. 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

You will. And quite a bit would be my guess. 

I’m flying back from Tampa on Sunday night, so knowing my luck this booms and I’m stuck down there!

In all seriousness, 3-5 and then a dry slot would be pretty amazing considering what we’re looking at now. Hope you enjoy out west. Should be a nice storm for you guys. 

Enjoyed the 30 minutes of hope we had this morning. About ready to call this one for us DC folks, just gotta pray we see something on the front end. 

Just now, Fozz said:

The GEFS mean is a composite of 30 different simulations. It would be very messy and not practical at all to try speculating on the exact ratio of the snow from an average of 30 different versions of a run. 

I was referring to the individual members on the screengrabs where it displays all their perceived outcomes.. I do agree that for a mean it would be a bit more tricky.

Can anyone with more knowledge answer why WxBell does not display GEFS members with the option of kuchera? Is it a resolution thing, or is it just purely a decision they made. Curious as hell. 

11 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

GEFS rolling in.  

 

Could you possibly post the next frame? Thanks! 

36 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

kind of shocked mcps hasnt called it.  Assuming roads are generally fine?

Just drove into work from Rockville. Neighborhoods were a mess, but the main arteries were just wet. 

This might be the heaviest snow I’ve seen in maryland. That band is unbelievable. 

Work in a few hours and for some reason I couldn’t care less that I’m up watching this scene unfold. 

For those of us in the DC metro, this reeks of waking up to a dusting on the grass. Seen this too many times before. Not expecting much whatsoever..

Glad those who missed Monday are cashing, tho! 

43 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Sitting outside waiting for the new happy hour King GooFuS. How are my I-95 corridor flurries looking? 
 

Oh. OBS. I’m cold but who cares. Beer warms…

That place in crown has some great beers, cannot lie! Always see a crowd outside of it. 

Uhhhh as for OBS… 37 and overcast here in Rockville.

What’s the ETA on the 18z Euro?

We’ve all been at this long enough to know there’s zero chance DC outdoes northern MOCO.. 

Received my first dose of Pfizer today! Already had COVID previously, so apparently I am more likely to feel sick. Oh well. Happy to do my part. 

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Old Bay is good for crabs and that's about it. Nasty on most anything else.

The local bars in College Park toss fries in Old Bay. It's incredible. Otherwise, Old Bay is way overused.