Thanatos_I_Am

EPS definitely took a step in the right direction.

2 minutes ago, cae said:

Still some big hits on the GGEM ensemble north of DC.  I count about 5/21 that give me more than 0.5" qpf as snow.  About 6 shut me out.

I remember you posting those last year. Was super cool and informative. Thanks for relaying the GEPS. 

Just now, Amped said:

Euro 500mb at 120 looks perfect. Bowling ball over stl

Here she comes???

0z Euro @120 seems less suppressive?

For the experts in here and I know it’s weenie rule #105 but, is there any truth to the NW précis shield being underdone?

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run.

Where are you seeing it?

Hugging the FV3. 

@Bob Chill digging into the GEFS and seems like a few mix/rain in DC. Is this more of a resolution issue or do these actually support some mixing?

Well, FWIW, DT still likes the 6z FV3 solution more.

At least it wasn’t a step in the wrong direction.

2 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said:

While we wait for Fv3 the GEFS looks to hold with a bit of tightening of the gradient in total precip...this is looking at total precip on TT not snowmaps but I would expect the means to looks the same as 18Z...maybe a bit less towards PA and a bit more in central VA.

You’d be right. DCA went down an inch and SW Virginia jacking with over a foot.

Just now, stormtracker said:

It doesn't

Really? The vort looks exactly alike unless I am reading it wrong.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, don't like where the GFS is going so far.  Less amped than 18z

Looks almost identical as 12z

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Umm..

.

 

Absolutely saving this one. The 50/50, the AN heights in AK. wow!

Might be a *tad* early, but the 18z FV3 seems a little less suppressive @ 90.   

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

15 members are a significant snow in DC. Then another 6 come too far north and rain. A few fringe jobs. Then about 25 total southern slider misses. 

So basically, we are staring at roughly a 50/50 for measurable in DC? Could be interpreting the individual members wrong. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

There are two camps within the EPS. One brings it up (some even become rain and snow into central PA) and a camp that suppressed. SW va is good on both so yea the mean looks great there. 

Thank you for saying this. The mean washes out the decent sized camp that gives us a much more classic storm. 

12z EPS Snowfall mean is lower, FWIW.

0z DCA: 4"

12z DCA: 2.5" 

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Eps is a close match to the previous run with the low. Only thing different is that we are seeing a stronger signal. Like the look later on in the run with the trough as the low is off the coast. Probably argues for bringing the low up the coast more so then the previous run.

I was looking at the 6hr precip mean. Seems more south no? 

Any word on the 12z UKIE?

FV3 is better than the OP. 

ETA: Looks like the FV3 gets the NS energy out faster. 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It is..but why sigh?  We're not even close to deadly range now.   Just have fun with the swings until say Tuesday or Wed.  Roll wit it

Yeah. I get that it will change but Euro and now the GFS showing the same sort of thing is a *tad* unnerving. 

sigh... looks south. 

To my untrained eye EPS is noticeably south.