So obviously the short range models are trying to bring in some warm air... But the Low that develops looks like it enhances the moisture where in runs last night and earlier today, the models were moisture starved
I really don't know how to feel about this. This system looks like a classic winter weather event and I don't recall ever seeing one fizzle out like this the way the models are showing..
The way things look man, I would side with the lower end of things... The Euro has been very stubborn and consistent... Just to much dry air and to much positive tilt as well.
The trough continues to trend more positive and the dry air is shearing out the moisture. It still has enough for light amounts but if this keeps trending like it's going, it's gonna be a dud unfortunately