Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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That is a thing of beauty to watch on a loop.
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498 dm thicknesses lol
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There will be some warmups but it looks below average overall. It is quite something to see the cold air available to tap into at this time of year. I could definitely envision another snow or two around here over the next week or two.
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We're in this thread now:
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Storm thread
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18z GFS continues to creep in a more favorable direction.
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I didn't check the ICON winds. Was talking about the Euro.
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There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low. There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level.
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Euro had the higher gusts farther east I think (going off memory)
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It is hard to overstate the tree damage that would occur on these rapidly bombing model solutions, even in areas with little/no snow, but let alone areas that get more significant snow. We don't see bombing of this magnitude squarely in the sub that often, and there is a tremendous low level wind response as that happens.
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12z GFS doesn't do much. However, looking at dprog/dt, I get the sense that maybe it is slooowly trying to get there. Meanwhile, the 12z ICON develops much like the 00z Euro.
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That is a tree wrecker on the 00z Euro. Impressive winds on the back side.
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GFS ain't biting, so why not
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Interestingly, Nov 1951 produced some significant snows unusually far south. For example, Chicago had 14" with virtually all of it in the first week of the month. Next week looks to have some significant snow potential in the Plains/Midwest.
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The 12z Euro deepens the system by 15 mb in 6 hours and 27 mb in 12 hours as it is leaving the US and moving into Canada. How impressive is that rate of deepening? Well, the 1978 Ohio superbomb deepened 16 mb in 6 hours and 30 mb in 12 hours... but it accomplished that at a farther south latitude from AL to Lake Erie. A little bit less impressive to do it where the Euro does, but still very impressive nonetheless. That being said, this is still in model fantasy land and very much subject to change.
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Maybe the best October synoptic snow potential in the sub since 1997? Like Alek said, not easy to pull off at this time of year. Multiple ways to fail... one of them would be if there's no follow up piece of energy like the Euro suggests and results in a storm too far north/west to do most of us any good.
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2 snow swaths on the 12z Euro... The one that Thundersnow mentioned from Missouri northeastward and a heavier one farther west that precedes it.
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Explosive deepening around/after this time.
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12z Euro sends a low toward the western Lakes but there is energy in the Rockies at 168 hrs... let's see if we get a second low to form farther south/east.
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Agreed
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Anyone remember the last time the 516 dm height contour was modeled that far south in October?
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The 00z GFS is really close to being a Halloween freakshow. As is, it's an impressively deepening storm. But if the northern energy drops in a little sooner...
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I see blue in that band. A mangled flake watch may become necessary in some areas if trends warrant.
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Autumn/Winter 2019-2020 Banter/Complaint Thread
Hoosier replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Buckeye renewing his subscription is like the unofficial kickoff of winter. But I regret to inform you that you are going against the longstanding protocol of 1 banter thread per season.
