Hoosier

ICON flips to snow too. Guys, I'm optimistic again.

Delayed timing compared to GFS but of course we get a cutter on the 12z Euro.

I don't know if it's seeing all this bare ground or what but the month seems milder than it has been to date. Will be accelerating the positive departures for sure.

Don't mind me. Been a tough month locally. Optimism hasn't worked so...

GFS has had an issue with overamping some storms in the long range but watch it nail this one

Good point. No guarantees on how individual storms work out, but if it does end up near/colder than average and wetter than average, you'd take your chances with that combination.

It is what it is. It is borderline impossible to have consistent winter with no breaks/thaws at any time the closer you get to 40N (really more like 41-42N). For areas that missed the recent storm in the OV, this Dec has been a little extreme in its suckiness but what are ya gonna do?

I'll take action of any kind at this point. Been unbelievably boring locally.

It must be n/w of the big cities. BOS has 11.5" this month... a nice total but not into elite territory.

And there was the recent OV storm. The thing about Nino/Ninoish Decembers is that the snow works out sometimes but it's harder to pull off a cold and snow combination in December... there are exceptions of course.

Wasn't that long ago that storminess was showing up around/after Christmas. Perhaps we are in the lose the storm(s) phase of the modeling. Action either way would be nice.

True. I was talking more about snow amounts. For example at Chicago... 1998-99 minus the January storm: 29.3" 2014-15 minus the late Jan/early Feb storm: 31.4"

The problem with a winter like 2014-15 and even 1998-99 is that if you take away the huge storm from each, you are left with a fairly mediocre winter overall. Sure, I would sign up for a repeat if it meant getting the huge storm, but there are no guarantees that happens even if the progression is similar.

Happy days are here again

This upcoming stretch looks pretty annoying tbh. Mild/warm but not particularly warm/record breaking and lack of storminess. Looking at record highs for Chicago for the stretch leading up to and just beyond Christmas, the record highs generally look safe. There are a couple somewhat vulnerable days in there with lower record highs but not sure the timing of the warmest days will be right.

It is easy to say in hindsight but unfortunately, Nino Decembers sucking is not a foreign concept (close enough to Nino this month even if we fall short of the technical criteria). Not always of course, but there are a lot of them over the years. No sugar coating it. This month has been pretty bad. I think December 1998 (not a Nino) probably takes the cake for worst combo of mild/snowless December in my memory with several others since then that I would put in a tier right under. Of course we know what happened right when January 1999 came. As much as I like cold/snowy Decembers, it was worth the trade-off in that case.

You are probably going to want to be north for what happens around the 25th-26th. Hopefully it gets better for more of the region after that.

There is a good storm signal about a week and a half from now. Could be pretty big for somebody. Whether it happens in time for Christmas is questionable.

This is it Chicago. You can feel it right? I am lit right now btw. Not a usual occurrence. I rarely drink.

*clears throat* So after this upcoming storm, almost no location north of I-70 (and maybe even a little south of there) will have less snow than me.

Can we time a warm-up any worse? Hopefully we lay down a nice snow field in the coming days to maybe slow down/mitigate to some extent.

Didn't you call it garbage like a week ago?

The low end scenario for this seems like a modest event in the OV, while the higher end scenario is a stronger storm a bit farther north.