Hoosier

We are already well over 2k deaths on worldometers. Or are you talking about cases?

Yeah seems kinda strange.

Dipping in to the Illinois news conference and they are suggesting the Illinois peak may not be until mid May. That's not good.

I'd say the weekend is definitely a factor. Looking at weekly numbers instead of daily may be a better way of evaluating trends.

Indiana will start reporting presumptive positive deaths later this week. https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/04/20/indiana-coronavirus-why-death-counts-may-jump-later-week/5168118002/

Georgia is going to start opening up. It is a mathematical certainty that cases are going to start to increase after some period of time of being open. You just want to keep it manageable as it is not acceptable to let it get to the point where even 1 person is turned away from getting treatment at a hospital. The testing issue is still a real concern though because it may be harder to see hotspots coming. I'm sure there will be a significant percentage of people who still won't go out much... sort of a self-imposed stay at home which would help keep the numbers lower than they would be compared to if everyone started living like they did in January.

The IL stay at home hasn't been going quite that long. Besides that, our lockdown hasn't been as strict as what some other countries have done. Also spread among family members who live together is one of the things that is harder to stop.

It has been having problems modeling the backside of the curve in other countries (too quick to bring deaths down). The overall trend should gradually be down though, at least until we open things up. Then all bets are off.

The panic is in part because of how contagious it is. And for argument sake, let's say the death rate is exactly like the flu. That would still be a problem to let it go unchecked with no restrictions/social distancing because the raw numbers would just get out of control. I'm itching for sports to return, especially baseball. But I think it would have to be done in empty stadiums or at least greatly reduced capacity in the stands. Packing in a ton of people next to each other is just asking for trouble.

Definitely think it's worth looking more into genetics or other things like blood type. I know there has been some info to suggest that type A blood may be more susceptible than type O. Not that having a particular blood type automatically makes you safe.

Track the reproductive rate in your state: https://rt.live

Has anyone been able to find hand sanitizer? I seriously think I'd have a much better shot at striking oil in my backyard right now.

Yeah, prisons are one of the highest risk places one can be. Good thing is that the article says some of the cases are asymptomatic but they didn't give a number.

Iowa is sort of a quiet sleeper. Things have been picking up there. I think they are one of the few states without an official stay at home order.

More than 1800 inmates at Marion Correctional in Ohio have tested positive https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/more-than-1800-inmates-at-marion-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

It's not that hard to believe, imo. Think about a sprinkler system on a windy day. You can start to feel some of the spray at a considerable number of feet away. Not saying it would be a common way of catching covid-19, but possible if the circumstances are just right.

Don't have the link but I remember reading that wind spreads the virus farther. So in particular if an infected person sneezes or coughs without covering up and the wind direction is right, you might not be safe even if you're 20 or 30 feet away.

Pritzker was saying the same thing about Illinois, how the growth rate is increasing in rural counties.

Not likely. Incubation period and time to get tested and then get the results (just getting the results often still takes several days) would take too long.

Large increase in cases in Ohio. Could be a one-off that quickly settles back toward baseline. Will have to monitor trends there in the coming days.

I wouldn't use that as a reason to abandon outdoor social distancing though. Still have ways to spread outdoors before sunlight would be able to kill it.

One reason that daily deaths have been picking up lately is that "probable" covid-19 deaths are being added in. This will undoubtedly become a talking point for some people to argue that the death toll is being inflated, but keep in mind that the procedure for coming up with flu deaths is not limited to those confirmed via testing. And I don't know if all states have started adding in probable deaths.

Unfortunately we're not going to be able to figure out the true fatality rate for a while. It is certainly going to be a lot lower than the current case fatality rate. Doesn't take away from the concern of pushing hospitals to or over the brink if things reopen too fast.

In Indiana, we are doing quite well as far as hospital/ICU bed and ventilator availability. In order to keep it that way, any reopening is going to have to be gradual and not like flipping a light switch. I actually liked the 3 phase reopening guidelines and what needs to happen to go from phase to phase that was put out by the White House yesterday.

The new data dump from Indiana has pushed the statewide number of cases over 10000 and deaths over 500.