MUWX

9 minutes ago, Chinook said:

local storm reports: 5" near Springfield

SGF reported 3.5" at 6:00, just a stunning bust. The 00Z NMB last night was almost 12 inches. Hard to comprehend how everything missed that badly 12 hours from the start of the event. 

I am guessing we are around 4 inches. SGF seeing the radar and high res models today and still coming out at 2:00 and saying 8-10 more inches was on the way is so on brand for SGF.

1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said:

SGF just updated graphics and insists there will still be an additional 8-10 inches past 2pm. 

I hope they are right, but man, I really don't see it. 

Pretty crazy that after how promising this looked last night that this might not end up being our biggest storm of the season. 

16 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

HRRR has it filling in very quickly over the next hour or two

HRRR has kind of said we are an hour or two away from it filling in all morning, and we are still an hour or two away on the latest HRRR.  Seeing a lot of chatter on twitter from 'Mets' on twitter that they think most of Oklahoma is going to under perform because dry air. (full disclosure, i dont know if any of them are actual mets) 

Radar in Oklahoma is concerning to me. High res models from yesterday afternoon greatly overestimated moisture down there it appears. Long ways to go, but I have to assume that has downstream impacts. 

Pretty cool page from SGF. Has pretty detailed point forecasts for cities in their CWA. Also has the boom or bust feature. Pretty crazy that a bust in the Joplin area is 7-8 inches. 

https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter

14 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I will say, that is looking like blizzard criteria on the GFS around 3:00PM in Tulsa and points north.

 

I think blizzard conditions are a lock but I don’t see anyone hitting the 3 hour sustained wind criteria for it to actually be upgraded to a blizzard warning. 

Hard to draw up a better run than that GFS run for southern Missouri this close to the start of an event 

Springfield going with a warning this early is a little surprising 

Springfield updated their watch. They are now calling for 7-14 inches. 

7 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

WINTER STORM WATCHES out for the SGF CWA: 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. There are medium to high chances
  (50-75%) of snowfall totals exceeding 5 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Kansas and central, east central,
  south central, southwest, and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening
  commutes.

 

The watch KC put up is more aggressive. 6-10 is their initial guess for their southern counties 

I am not sure when they started doing them, but the probabilities in AFDs and watches stinks. 

Models do seem to be picking up on more of a warm nose, which could be problematic. 

I am pretty hesitant to trust Kuchera here, or honestly, ever. Higher wind gusts cause fracturing of dendrites, and can result in lower ratio's than temperatures might indicate. 

The hype for this storm is already getting out hand.  How many times over the last 5 - 10 years have been in a similar stop only to get up getting close to nothing? Feels like a lot. 

Springfield afternoon AFD is a great read.... because they basically admit that they have no idea what is going to happen. Stunning level of uncertainty less than 12 hours out. 

I am not sure how to feel about the current warning/advisory map. It sure feels like the warnings are too far north and too aggressive on total snow amounts up north. There is still time for the temps to jump, but so far, temps are underperforming fairly significantly here in SWMO, especially considering how borderline the set up is. 

Model differences are pretty crazy with the Monday storm. We will see what the rest of the 0z suite says but so far, very little consistency for being 48 hours out 

Models are really hinting at something towards the middle of next week. My snow pile finally melted on Friday, so I am ready for something new to track 

11 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said:

Like the trends of the 00z GFS and Canadian for the 21st and good grief at those temperatures. 

Canadian is always fun to look at when Arctic air is coming. If Missouri gets to -30, that would be something. 

Was not expecting snow tonight. Roof tops are turning white 

Pretty good storm here. I’d guess something in the 6-8 inch range just eyeballing what’s on the table on our deck. 

Guessing we are in the 2-3 inch range, radar and high res look pretty good. If we can cash in on some better ratio snow, we might be able to get another 3-5”. I’m optimistic so probably means we won’t get near that much. 

11 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

I’m around 2” in Bentonville.  Benton/Washington Counties have been in the lightest radar echos pretty much the entire event.   The heavier stuff east of Tulsa never shifts to the east.  

If you’re already at two inches, it feels like the forecast is pretty much on track to verify perfectly, no?