phoenixny

Updated Discussion from Bing: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 730 pm update... Issued winter weather advisory for row of counties west of the winter storm warning since we are forecasting advisory amounts and decision makers need the information this evening regarding travel, school and other closures this evening. Also we bumped up snow amounts in grids to better match neighboring offices snowfall for our statewide and regional partners and also to match WPC amounts better. 18Z guidance from the NAM 3km and the 2.5 km Canadian have come in with heavier snow west to near I-81 with amounts in the 8-12" inch range in the western part of our winter storm warning area. I also bumped up snow amounts from Otsego and Delaware counties south to northeast Pa where these higher resolution models have a solid 10-20". Both of these models did very well with last Friday`s snowstorm. The 18z GFS has backed off a bit with snow amounts running 6"-12" east of a Rome NY to Towanda, Pa line with the highest in the Poconos to Delaware/Sullivan Counties in NY. We are also concerned with snowfall intensity late Wednesday morning into afternoon/evening. Snowfall rates could reach 3" per hour in our eastern areas, east of I-81. I look for where the 700 mb temperature gradient sets up and of course this leads to strong frontogenetic forcing and intense snow banding. The 18Z GFS has this gradient between the lower Hudson valley and Upper Mohawk Valley. The 18z NAM has this gradient moving across central NY Wednesday but really tightening up over the Catskills by 00z Thursday. This again suggests very heavy snow just the northwest of this. The NAM 3km, which is too fine of resolution to look at thermal fields, has 2-3" per hour rates which supports the 12km NAM thermal fields and frontogenetical forcing. This all suggests strong forcing which would support heavier snow in the Catskills, Delaware/Otsego/Sullivan counties in NY and northeast PA. In these areas I upped amounts to 10-16"... locally 20 inches. Now west of this area there will be a drop off in snow amounts which really is difficult to determine exactly where the 6-12 inch amounts fall off to a few inches. Right now we are running this line from Oneida Lake to Owego, NY and far eastern Bradford County in PA. One more point, we are not expecting a wet snow from this storm as thermal profiles all have temperatures between -5C to-15C in the snow production zone from MSV to AVP on BUFKIT which have the warmest profiles in our forecast area. So even if surface temperatures are close to freezing, temperatures aloft will be cold enough to make for a more powdery snow than a wet snow. We are looking at snow to liquid ratios of 12-13 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid. Updated grids, snow amounts and winter weather message to reflect changes. Previous discussion is below

Phoenix picked up 9" inches. Power is flickering here as well. Very pretty outside with the caked on snow.

Ty, almost all snow her in west Phoenix. Gotta go to bed but starting to accumulate on deck. Big flakes, It's coming.

Thanks man!

Not seeing that yet. Is that official?

I had trouble remembering that one; had to look it up, probably because we ended up with less than 10". Southern NY and East-Central NY got pounded. 38" in Cherry Valley(northwest of Oneonta I think). Hope you are right! I went to college in Oneonta and Oswego so I have had my fair share over the years but the big synoptic ones with 2 to 5 inch per hour rates are the best. Take care.

Hey guys, Moderate poster in the Upstate NY forum but that was one of my favorite snowstorms(12/29-12/30) for Phoenix N.Y.(just north of Syracuse. 26" of snow from that one and was our last county wide snow emergency(17 years). Last Blizzard Warning was back in March, 93. I feel like you guys have had 10 Blizzard Warnings or more to my 1 in 23 years!