raindancewx

This is probably a good winter for flipping conditions from anti-logs. Just flip a weak El Nino, with a -QBO, low-solar, and very +PDO, -AMO conditions. 1976: Weak El Nino, -QBO, Solar Min, PDO+ (+1.5), -AMO 1986: Weak El Nino, -QBO, Solar Min, PDO+ (+1.8), -AMO Anti 1976, 1986 blend (-7 to +7 scale) As a sanity check, you can see it is already working to some extent. June had the non-flipped 1976 and 1986 work as a better match, which makes sense to me as the QBO / ENSO state just flipped in July really. Anti 1976-77 and 1986-87 isn't a very cold winter, but it's probably one of the coldest Feb-Apr periods on record for the US.

I'd like to see you change the color scheme by the North Pole. I doubt it is all below average? Otherwise this is a very useful product if you can update it easily. There are a lot of datasets for doing SST maps like this one. I would also add the baseline used. It looks like 1991-2020 to me but I can't prove it. I would also add in the total (spatially weighted) SST warmth v. the baseline period as an index. Maybe the tropical warmth (23N-23S) too v. a baseline. I like the rectangular maps and automatically de-weight the lower/higher latitudes because the Earth is spherical. But a spherical representation would probably also do well.

CPC has the US pretty cold in the 6-10 and 8-14 period. It's already been pretty cold in the interior of the continent. We're close to trending behind the very late La Nina development of 2017-18 at this point. My guess is we'll eventually see SSTs at the surface drop off like a rock for a brief period, and then a flat lining and reversal will start shortly thereafter. We'll hit the La Nina SST thresholds for several months, but not the duration for an official La Nina - that's my guess. All the bitching I see in the news lately has been about how hot it has been. But it really seems like a strange month to complain about it in the US. At best parts of the US will be very warm and parts will be very cold. La Nina typically coincides with the Atlantic acting like it is an El Nino (a big warm stripe by the equator). We have a big cold stripe in the Atlantic at the equator. So I'm still fairly skeptical of a huge season. A relatively low number of storms that are very powerful, and a normal number of weak short-lived storms is at least as likely as a hyperactive season (that would see many powerful and weak storms).

Dead on match for the high ACE years so far in June (not). I'm sure the season will have active periods but I'm still pretty skeptical of 200+ ACE.

The composite above for the ACE seasons is completely wrong. Some of the ESRL sites have winters tied to the final year of the monthly period, others have the winter tied to the start. This is the actual composite of the recent highest ACE years. The idea is much higher than normal pressure over the SW and West. Cold drains into the East.

Here is a look at the Summer MJO composites for precipitation v. observations globally in June. The map is closest to the MJO 5-6 composite. MJO 4 is generally pretty active in the Atlantic but the huge dry spot in the Indian Ocean is very much anti-MJO 4.

Atlantic ACE got to about 36 with Beryl. Nothing on the horizon for a little while. SE ridge?

The warm tongue east of Japan has actually weakened a lot over the past week or so. At the surface the eastern part of the La Nina has weakened too. July has actually started very cold for a lot of the US. Not really surprising, a big portion of Western Canada was pretty cold in June. I basically agree with what the Canadian showed for Aug-Oct - a lot of powerful cold shots should come in for the next few months, for how early it is. Also, the warmest area of the global oceans now is well north of the Equator. It's by the Philippines-SE China, rather than by Indonesia. I doubt we'll see the pronounced response to phases 4-5-6 if that area of the ocean remains so much warmer than the spots by the equator. You have areas of 30-32C SST warmth as far as like 30N in the Pacific, none of the waters by the equator are that warm by Indonesia.

Several of those winters were pretty warm in Minneapolis. Couple cold ones, but that five year period is held up by two or three cold winters of the five.

Warmest Minneapolis winters since 1870, following winter in () 1 2023-2024 29.9 0 2 1877-1878 29.0 0 (16) 3 1930-1931 26.9 0 (22.5) 4 2001-2002 26.8 0 (13.1) 5 2011-2012 26.3 0 (19.8) 6 1881-1882 26.1 0 (9.3) 7 1997-1998 25.9 0 (21.6) 8 1986-1987 25.8 0 (16.4) 9 2016-2017 24.3 0 (17.1) 10 2015-2016 24.2 0 (24.3) 11 1982-1983 24.0 0 (14.3) 5 warm / 5 cold against 1870-2023 median (16F) for DJF. 6/10 cold against 1991-2020 median (~19F) Non-El Nino winters since 1980 following near-record Plains winter heat - fairly standard La Nina.

In terms of actual SSTs for Nino 3.4, these are the years within 0.20C (+/-) the 27.89C observed in June 2024. 27.69-28.09 1951, 1958, 1965, 1968, 1969, 1977, 1980, 1993, 1994, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018. Some of the late forming La Ninas like 2005 and 2017 get pretty cold in Nino 3.4 for where they are in June. But you can see most of the years (12 of 18) go to El Nino from similar SSTs. 1980 (27.94C), 1993 (28.08C), 2005 (27.77C), 2012 (27.75C), 2016 (27.69C), 2017 (28.06C) are the non-El Nino winters of the bunch. June 2013 actually looks a lot like SSTs if you just eyeball It. Of course it's a non-La Nina. Just a cold Neutral. I'm assuming the RONI crowd doesn't consider it a La Nina because it's kind of a good winter for the East. The Indian Ocean is warmer and the Atlantic is warmer. But the Atlantic has the right shape with cold SSTs by Africa/NW Europe. Tropical Tidbits has 2007 & 2013 as top SST matches globally since 2000. I think if you warmed up oceans by 0.1C globally that's probably about the right idea. Thee seasonal models seem to be trying to go to something like this for the winter now. This makes sense to me intuitively, the Plains likely won't see record warmth two years in a row. At some point I'll run the winters after the hottest winters in Minneapolis out of curiosity.

I mentioned a while ago that the upper level high over Mexico had to move or get destroyed as a condition of the hurricane season ramping up. Check out May v. June 2024.

CPC still has ONI / RONI in non-La Nina status for Apr-June by the way. Not sure even on the RONI scale we'll be there in May-July. For June CPC still has +0.16C for Nino 3.4 on the ONI basis. One thing I dislike about RONI is if we have a particularly active hurricane season, the tropical oceans would likely cool right? That would screw up the sliding scale nature of the baseline, which makes it unreliable. Beryl is forecast to be around in some capacity through Sunday. Every day with at least 100 kt sustained winds adds at least 4 ACE. We have a shot at nearing 40 ACE by Monday morning in the Atlantic - definitely a bit nuts.

You were never going to have a big Aleutian low last year with the PDO near -3 to -1 the whole time. The north pacific stuff is tied much more to the PDO than ENSO. The ENSO stuff has direct control over the subtropical jet which was very strong last year.

Presumably the entire plume will shift warmer with the Euro miss for June. Subsurface heat content also weakened a lot (i.e. it warmed) in June from 100-180W. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt 1999 and 2007 seem to have had similar June thinning of the subsurface. 1999 by itself is a good match - that's a fairly cold / wet Summer here, which is kind of the right feel for how things are trending with a late start to the heat and a lot of rain. Lot of Caribbean hurricanes in those years. Apr May June 1999 -0.91, -0.81, -0.52 (x3) 2007 -0.59, -0.58, -0.18 (x1) -------------------------------- Blend -0.83, -0.75, -0.44 2024 -0.81, -0.80, -0.46

La Ninas / El Nino function as an evaporation v. precipitation constant locally. We seem well on our way to an exceptionally wet Summer that is only somewhat warm (+1 or +2). When we get 'too much rain' in the Summer in La Nina, a very dry winter almost always follows. Given the hurricane season, the trend toward an east-based La Nina instead of a Modoki, the -PDO, and the potential for the -WPO to flip, I'm actually getting a lot more bullish on winter for the East. If we finish with a wet Summer and an active hurricane season, I'd bet at least on an exceptionally dry winter here, even if it isn't blazing hot. At 180+ ACE or more I'd be pretty tempted to put a +7F over the entire western half of North America with cold draining into the East. At 120-180 ACE it's more of a tough call. Beryl alone could jack up ACE to 30-40 before it dissipates, 1/4-1/3 of a normal season, and it is only July. But we could also do the 2007 thing where we have two huge systems, and a bunch of weak ones that hit Central America. Too early to know.

My only hesitation with a hyper active season is that we've seen some similarities globally at 500 mb to June 2007. That season had two category five hurricanes, and many storms impact the same areas of Central America (Barry, Dean, Erin, Felix, Lorenzo, Olga)...but it still wasn't super active. Tons of storms - just mostly weak systems with the super systems sprinkled in. The Atlantic is much warmer than 2007 right now. So I wouldn't go as low as 2007 ACE. But something like a 2007 / 2017 blend (150 ACE) seems possible still.

Also, the MJO now looks like a coherent phase 4/5 blend on the global DJF precipitation map from the Canadian.

Help us Roni-Wan-Kenobi, you're our only hope. Actually, that's a much colder winter for the east to be honest. Old New Aug-Oct is when I thought the -WPO might start to break from last year and stick around. The Canadian has that period pretty cold now in the US, with -WPO conditions in Sept/Oct it looks like. Looks like a classic cold North-Central, warm rest of the US La Nina look. That's not crazy to me if the hurricane season doesn't go ballistic, especially if the -WPO remains negative. La Ninas tends to dump cold North Central or into the West, it just depends on the WPO / La Nina state.

New Canadian run should be in shortly. July is often the first decent read for winter SSTs. Some of the recent La Ninas didn't really develop until July. 2017-18 is one that comes to mind. That year the subsurface dropped off a cliff in July after muddling around in the Spring. Will be curious to see how that goes. We're not really near La Nina conditions yet at the surface. The -0.5C or colder waters are all in Nino 3 or east. The dark blue has to fill in from 5N to 5S from 120-170W.

If Hurricane Beryl hits Central America, South TX or Eastern Mexico next week, I think we're set up here for a pretty active monsoon in July. The colder La Nina winters out here tend to be very hot and dry all Summer. Hot / Wet Summers tend to be mostly warm with brief severe cold waves, that still average out pretty warm. We've had rain already almost every day for ten days. It's been quite active. The whole city is actually flooding right now with close to an inch of rain in 30 minutes. The heat is actually quite fragile out here. The 97 at 3:30 is 63 now. Atlantic ACE is still running below normal as of this afternoon. But it should catch up to normal and then jump above it over the next few days. MJO hasn't been particularly active in a while. I think it has to emerge and stay in four at high amplitude at some point over the next few months for the hurricane season to be hyperactive. May happen, but not sure yet.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data QBO is behaving like 1959, 1966, 2022 and a few others. Still not convinced it actually improves seasonal forecasting very much. I remember going into 2020-21 the idea for most was a pretty warm winter - no mention of the TX destroying cold In most forecasts with a +QBO La Nina. Same for 2022-23, no one really expected the blizzard warnings in San Diego country in March 2023, or the persistently severe cold in the West that winter. Years like 1995-96 and 2017-18 do of course have the -QBO/La Nina combo that we won't see this year. The QBO is also a quasi-cycle, so the timing of -/+ readings at various heights drifts over the years. A lot of past years that have nominally similar values are at different points in the cycle due to leading/lagging the east/west peak of the 2023-2024 cycle by a few months.

I took the heatwave in MX in May as the displacement of the Southeast ridge with the -PNA, but I haven't really looked. I've assumed the displacement was tied to the weird placement of the Bermuda High. It's been kind of elongated west this month. We've had a lot of volatility for June here, with highs not being able to stick. Summer is typically very stable for highs here. The developing La Ninas that have volatility in the Summer tend to retain it into the winter out here. Still like 2016, 2020, 2022 among the more recent La Ninas. As far as La Nina strength goes the subsurface isn't exactly trending toward anything severe. Still very curious to see what the hurricane season does. A lot of times the hyper-active seasons have already had several major systems by now. But we've not seen that. My present assumption is a pretty decent cold 'peak' for SSTs in Nino 3.4 that is somewhat early - October/November. Then a rapid degeneration to neutral conditions in Feb/Mar/Apr. La Nina conditions will be met for something like July or Aug to Jan or Feb. I say this because the subsurface was basically in La Nina in mid-Feb, so Jan/Feb 2025 would make it one year for La Nina conditions.

Another pretty cold June day here. Only 72 or so at 1 pm. It's actually been very cold this month in Western Canada. I'm curious to see if that will hold and continue building as we get closer to the winter. If nothing else, it favors some early season cold shots that are stronger than average if it persists. I believe June 2020 was also pretty cold in Western Canada. There were obviously some pretty incredible cold pushes in the Fall of 2020.

Alberto hitting NE MX as a weak tropical storm from the east in June is likely pretty rare. Been trying to see if other La Ninas had similar storm trajectories. You can sort of see the impacts. Boston hit 98F today, whereas the Highlands of Central MX will see highs in the mid-60s for the foreseeable future with the extra moisture. Droughts end and old Mexico is in a bad one. Suspect this storm will prevent the day 0 stuff you see in the media about Mexico City running out of water. I'll be watching the path of the remnant moisture of Alberto as it could really help us out in NM and TX if we get some long-duration steady rain. I don't think we'll get much in the city. I think the wet footprint this month may be enough to prevent a scorching hot Summer along the NM/TX border which is nice to see. That area has been roasting and stupid dry in La Nina winters in recent times. Amarillo had that ~5 month streak without precipitation in the 2017-18 La Nina.