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hardypalmguy

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    March 9-10 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, snowman33 said:

    Event starts in less than 12 hours. Then we'll see what happens.

    Hoping it's all rain and they are left with their pants down on this one.  MKE is 38F.  Going to take a lot of dynamic cooling to get it to where this piles up.

    • Haha 2
    • Confused 1

    March 9-10 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, TheNiño said:

    I’m not sure you’re adequately separating the general public from weather weenies on this sub.

    Again, do you think this has put the lives of the general public at risk? I highly doubt it. 

    It makes them incompetent.  That's worse.

    March 9-10 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, TheNiño said:

    Why is a WWA —> WSW such a bad thing? How is the public put at risk?

     

    Are you serious right now?  The NWS did a wishy washy flip flopping in the last 12 hours.  General public went from "OMG winter storm watch" to "ok no big deal just a WWA" to now "it's a warning now?"  and the event hasn't even begun.  Too much flip flopping.  General public is now tuned out.  They are already laughing about it on Facebook.

    • Like 1
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    March 9-10 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

    Sorry you feel the way you do about our efforts. It's cliche, but in weather forecasting, there's always going to be a bit of 'you win some, you lose some.'

    However, that being said, I can assure you the headlines are not based "off feeling." When there's a watch in effect and potential to upgrade to a warning, it's a collaborative intra office discussion, in addition to the inter-office collaboration that goes on. Last Thursday, we had about 3 hours worth of discussions on how to handle the existing watch, not exaggerating.

    Since we inherited a watch on the (Wednesday) day shift yesterday, and it's within a timeframe when we usually make a decision, we're left with a) upgrade the watch or a part of it to a warning; b ) issue a WWA; c) hold onto the watch

    Options a or b are the typical courses of action. Option C is what we went with for last Friday's event given the unusually large uncertainty up to go time. Preference today (including input up to local management level), was to go with the WWA as our highest confidence option. In that, we explicitly forecast up to 7" amounts in spots for the state line counties. That shows it's not as simple as 6" = definite warning.

    My own thinking on the decision process was informed on how last Friday played out, with a similar expected 2m temp starting point at precip onset, and the 1-2 hour lag until progressively worse impacts, amidst intense snow rates and TSSN.

    If part of the evening commute is spent in a lagged ground and pavement response prior to worsening impacts, and 12-hour amounts end up at 6" or less due to shorter duration of sustained heavy rates, plus lighter snow rates Friday AM with temps near to slightly above 32F, that's part of how we felt comfortable going with a WWA.

    Confidence was not high in widespread 6-7" amounts per non-NCEP guidance being drier, and with much of the accums occurring at a less impactful time of day, we didn't think it necessitated a warning issuance.

    This of course doesn't imply that we will be right, but shows the process that goes into headline decisions. There's also collaboration between WPC and the WFOs regarding QPF, SLRs and snow and ice amounts.

    With the milder winter we've had, and no real classic winter storm setups this winter, we've been left with marginal and thus more uncertain synoptic evolutions. There is consistent post event evaluation going on that we use to build mental models of future events. But it doesn't ever make forecasts and headline decisions easy, and there's opportunities for future improvement that come about, from forecasts and headlines to our graphics and DSS.



     

    Well we had MKE office drop a big ball on this one.  Winter Storm Watch -> WWA -> Winter Storm Warning.  I'm sure that left the general public either confused or they have now tuned it out completely.

    EDIT: and all these changes before the event even begins.  They should have either upgraded to a warning yesterday or held on to the watch until this morning if they were uncertain.  IMO they handled headlines wrong on this one changing them this much before the event is even here.

    • Like 1

    March 2023 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    9 hours ago, mnchaserguy said:


    If it makes anyone feel better, we will probably be paying for it soon. How much do you want to bet Minnesota will be stuck on the cold side of the warm front this spring while the rest of you get to enjoy the warm sector? Or it might just snow here until May. That’s also a possibility.


    .

    I hope so.  MSP can keep piling up the white gold.

    • Like 1

    Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Battle of the vet mets
    JB v LC
    Haven't seen such opposing thoughts in the long range.  LC thinks the incoming cold late next week is out by mid month and we go back to modified pacific air.   JB says brutal cold well into April.   (shocking I know).
    I'll be bump'n this one in a couple weeks.

    I’d stick with LC.
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