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Everything posted by Itstrainingtime
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Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
For amusement only: (this is somewhat aggressive for me) @MAG5035 3.3" @Cashtown_Coop 2.5" @CarlislePaWx 1.7" @daxx 1.3" @Blizzard of 93 @sauss06 1" (actually slightly less, but you'll be able to slant stick your way to 1" :)) @pasnownut .75" @Superstorm .6" @Voyager .5" @canderson No trees down on Front Street @Wmsptwx f*ck the Patriots -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yep, a pattern reload sometime between Christmas and New Year's would be ideal. EPS is hinting at it...will it be right? -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Lot of pessimism in the sub to our south about the pattern for the remainder of the month...fits the thoughts of the "guy from Millersville" who is going with a warming trend beginning Christmas week. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
CTP: -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
1" to perhaps 2" stands from yesterday as my final call. I lean towards the 1". -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I might have been a little too generous yesterday with my snowfall estimates...I was sorta afraid of that... Nothing is settled yet. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Just to be perfectly clear...I think we're going to get an extended period of frozen. I also think it will be disruptive to the point that it will be a significant event. I'm specifically leery of how much pure white gold falls. Guys I hope I'm wrong... -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
You could very well be right! And I hope you are...I just don't see it that way. I agree that trends favor more frozen. I just believe we flip sooner than expected. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I don't think anyone close to us gets close to 4". I don't believe this setup will produce 2" down this way. Where you live...maybe. A big maybe. I do believe ice will be a significant problem for a whole lot of us. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thanks guys, all is well. And Brian, it was at Ridge Road. I knew it was coming but never saw it. Fog has diminished around here somewhat as well. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
So I was reading these posts before my wife and I went out this evening...we were driving up 743 towards Elizabethtown and it got to the point where I couldn't see. Got to a spot where the road makes a sharp left turn...well, we didn't. Slid right on off the road. All is well, but we were shaken for a few minutes. Yeah - it was bad out. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It's worked well for many, many years. Sometimes you have to know your climate in relation to the players on the field. And all costs, ignore snow maps. They'll let you down ALMOST every time. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm with you buddy...I think we average somewhere north of 300"/winter just based off snow maps...and that includes the almighty ECMWF... -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Dews are low enough for temps to drop slightly at the onset of precip. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks like a lot of areas are near the critical point right now: -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It's 35 and just cloudy here. That sucks. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What an awful cutoff across Lanco... I had to say it. That there is gonna be the "Marysville Mauler" I claim naming rights. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thanks Eskimo Joe. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm telling people 30" - 45" this winter. We'll see... -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Lot of truth in your words. One thing about weather is there are no absolutes until it's actually happening. I've been burned a few too many times thinking something was definitely going to happen only to end up looking bad. This is a very humbling hobby. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Poor Jon... It might be too much snow. We'll see... -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm liking early next week for wintry precip... My personal rule of thumb is anytime a primary goes west I set my bar for 2". There have been storms over the years that have brought me more than that, but most times models depict higher amounts than what we end up with. Happened more than once last year...changeover (from all snow) consistently happens sooner than forecast. And 9 times out of 10, 2" is pretty much the max. I'm speaking for my area...Jon, you might be looking at a solid 3". -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I believe CTP posted a snow map on Twitter that showed that the accumulating snow stopped right at MDT. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I agree, but my point was you typically have more snow seasonally than I do. Going into last night's "event" I was running a little ahead of you for the season. That's been fixed now. -
Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion
Itstrainingtime replied to pasnownut's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm going to go with 1". Sounds like it might have been a bit more given what @anotherman and a few others around me measured. With 1", I'm now at 3.3" for the season. Which makes sense as you are the local snow magnet!