Itstrainingtime

Understood, but you started off with a negative (I'm disappointed...) comment about the posters in here using models. Please understand that there have been times THIS SEASON when it snowed in Adams/Franklin counties and when that area of precip moved in here... It was rain. Just because snow is moving towards me doesn't mean it's going to snow at my house. I'm smart enough to know that as well. Not a silly response from me. I know how hard it is to get snow. Don't tell me differently.

Literally any minute now...it's snowing on I83 in York county...Roundtop cam showing it's snowing really good now.

That escalated quickly...

Using your logic, we're going to get 27" of snow today if we go solely on the fact that it's ripping fatties in Waynesboro. Without modeling, there's no reason to think it will change to rain or stop until sometime on Friday. Come on.

Whitetail webcams look impressive. (rate of snow falling, notsomuch trail coverage)

How long from first flakes to moderate intensity?

I'm going down with the ship with my 1" (or less) call for MDT.

Happy to see that some are getting snow now...we need some reward for the investment. So far, 72 different snow maps (not model depictions, purely snow maps) have been posted for this storm. @Mount Joy Snowman and myself love us some data - that's my data contribution for this storm.

33 and cloudy - everything that I saw pointed to an 8-11am start. At least around here.

Forecast low was 31 - it's currently 27 with clear skies...

Main roads are brined around here - you'd think that Lancaster hasn't seen snow in a long time or something.

I honestly think that will end up being pretty close. Time will tell.

You might very well be right! As of now, none of us can say with any certainty how much or how little it will snow in our general area. We all have opinions and there's reasons behind all of them. I do find it somewhat humorous that you've been bashing the GFS most of this season, but now that's "forecasting" the most snow...you support it.

I should have added that - systems aren't even able to attack a stout arctic airmass. Minus that feature...yeah.

MU admitted that he missed the mark badly on January - after nailing the snowless December, he thought that January would be winter's coldest and snowiest. I guess if MU somehow manages to get a tenth of an inch tomorrow...January will be in the running for the snowiest!

And anything that cuts should not surprise us when it fails.

In all seriousness - I feel like the NAM map that our good friend @Mount Joy Snowman posted is often how the rain/snow line works with storms....what starts out as "MIGHT mix with sleet/freezing rain for a time" in Lancaster often ends up with the mix line into southern NY state. Watching the pretty colors steadily migrate north with this system reminds me of that.

Still think MDT comes in under 1".

Am I the raining guy? LOL NAM looks interesting!

What you posted is for 10am, correct? If so - it's not snowing where we live...

Me thinks there will be somewhat of a reduction in purples on the latest map...

I saw that we might have a couple of very short windows (3-5 days) to score something - that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

Looks like CTP took another step down with projected totals:

Rants are totally understandable. I was on the edge yesterday myself. This isn't just to/for you, but to everyone really - it's interesting to me how personal perception can change day by day. Yesterday, I was surly, negative, and almost ready to be confrontational, really. This winter had me at my breaking point. I was genuinely upset over the weather. Today? New day. Weather hasn't changed much, if anything the outlook has gotten even more bleak. But I'm okay with that today. It is what it is...nothing I can do to change it. My mindset today is almost to make fun of the situation and just have fun with it. Nothing has changed today in my professional or personal life, either. Simply a new day and I woke up with a different perspective. Can anyone else relate to what I'm saying?

Well stated - question is...will that wall of precip come in while we still have thermals? If the precip is delayed a couple of hours, we lose our window.