Enigma

People are surprised by the NAM? We can't get a worse setup for a meaningful snowfall in these parts.

12z NAM probably the worst run for this system in days. Verbatim, most of the board lands a coating.

Light to moderate event during the first week of December has been a signal for positive things to come for season.

Just now, Drz1111 said:

It’s “reeks”, and if that’s the case, show your proof.  Every guy posting forecasts on the internet, even guys with degrees, has their own set of pulled-out-of-their-ass model biases, and they’re mostly bullshit.

I reccommend staying positive and  enjoying the 1/2 inch of snow that falls on the metro.

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

That model error has a direction based on index state. That’s just not true.  The model already takes into account the upper air pattern in solving the math. The storm path is no more likely to drift south or north.

Your assessment is not accurate. Pattern, especially the negative PNA wreaks of a northern solution. 

Just now, jm1220 said:

Forget about the initial WAA precip unless you’re well inland-it’ll be an hour or two of non-rain that gets washed away. That part’s for SNE. Essentially it’ll act like most SWFEs act here. What makes or breaks it for 80% of this sub forum is what happens behind the low and where/whether the CCB develops. This hasn’t really changed in 36 hours now. 

Exactly. There is a 3-6 hour window of potential snow for majority on this board. I'm thinking little to accumulation for city, especially with wet streets and temp at 34. 

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Well said, agree. There is a reason the watches are up for the places they are up for and nothing for the city. There is high confidence of significant snow in these areas but the city could be 1 inch or could be a miracle but it's so dependent on the randomness of a CCB band.

There's low confidence at this juncture. Highly suspect that Warren/Sussex will get warning criteria snow, other watch areas will get early season advisory criteria. All others, including city, see dusting to 2. 

This is not an ideal I-95 setup by any means.  IMHO, this will be a major letdown for most south and east of I-80. Possible CCB does not get organized until late in the game. Take the NAM and cut in half, and then cut in half again!