Enigma

33F Light snow. Dusting on grassy surfaces in Hunterdon County

5 minutes ago, Doorman said:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-HHC-1-24#

DS=Dry-Snow fwiw

 

Yeaaaaa. That's accurate. 

Radar and obs here point toward a coating of snow (at best) for NYC.

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

12/24/98 is now the top analog for this event.  I think someone mentioned it a couple of days ago here 

Twas I. It was a nice event, but we had a better BL to work with.

34F Light snow here in Hunterdon County. No accums yet 

IMO, it's going to be tough to accumulate given the wet ground and borderline temps.

I am under the heaviest band in W NJ st 12:15 AM. Mix of large snowflakes and PL. Not very impressive yet, but only began precipitating about 10 min ago.

This feels like the Dec 24, 1997 or 1998 snowfall. It was a nice little event, but we had more cold air to work with.

NAM would be 1-2 in area wide 

44 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the night of the January 19th 1978 storm Kasper was hedging towards a bigger storm saying the rain snow line has moved south...He said NYC could get 8"...I rember Alan Kasper making appearance's on the Uncle Floyd show in the late 70's...They called him Alan Kaster oil...

 

Alan is a very good man. I interned with him years ago. Learned a lot about life from him.

March 93 was showing consistently on models 6-7 days out. At that time, Euro and MRF were run once daily. I recall that MRF went out to 240 hr, Euro 168 hr.

There no cold air to work with. We aren't going to suddenly get 1 in rates to draw colder air to surface. Very stale airmass.

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hrrr has it going through midnight 

This was a disaster of a forecast. No way around it. Anyone that has some semblance of forecast recognition knew that this was going to be a non-event for most in  this sub-forum.

Elevation was significant today. 

Obs are not in line with radar today. These SWSs have also  been grossly out of proportion to reality.

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Check out the radar and get back to me. There are always people who quit during a storm. It's so stupid.

Let the system play out.  Sun is going down and the snow will start sticking better.  Long ways to go for this one.

Tony, stop leading people on. The radar looks terribly anemic. Mount Holly scaling everything back.

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Do you people realize that the worst is supposed to  be this evening ?

Not looking good. But there is certainly a chance of a brief period of light snow with better temps this evening.

Our deformation snows are developing and expanding already over C PA.

1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

Is that due to a lack of dynamics or borderline temps?

I still think best dynamics are just west of NYC. SREFs have been persistent with best lift along Delaware River.

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wait you are forecasting that for the whole event ? I thought it was only for today.

I'd have to go back. I honestly would not go above 1-2 in for CPK tomorrow. 

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR beyond 8 hours is bad.  It actually was awful today with the weather coming through here.  The 3Km NAM really nailed today’s event overall 

Sorry. Sarcasm button did not work.

2 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Hearing the latest Hrrr is terrible 

Meh. Convective feedback issues on HRRR. We toss.

3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

@Enigma how’s the half inch forecast working out for you for Central Park?

? I didn't realize that tomorrow's event already occurred today!?

I'll stand by my 1/2 inch forecast.

Euro cut all of New England totals in half, which led to their sudden panic in the forum.

NAM cuts amounts in half for almost everyone. I actually like the 18z Euro. 

Hunterdon County. 90% sleet, 10% snow or graupel. Everything with a solid iced coating. Sleet accumulating.