OKpowdah

I'd recommend using MLCAPE - more representative of the parcels being lifted. Still >4000 right now, which is huge

Definitely has gotten better. Actually Verizon's more annoying hole in service was SE of Norman ...as I drove down 177 toward Sulfur... What provider do you have?

Can we maybe place a moratorium on posting convectively contaminated NAM4km forecast soundings? I'm as guilty as anyone having fun posting interesting ones on twitter, but here we're trying to have a relatively informative discussion on the severe weather threats, and the eye-candy supercell soundings don't actually contribute anything.

That is a wicked good point.

I usually like to see more upper level confluence to the north/northeast to prevent the strung out SSW-NNE oriented sfc low we see next week. That usually helps in the shear department. One reason I've been cautious about getting excited at all. Though there have been big days with similar configurations. Certainly the ramping up of the STJ makes everything more interesting, on a number of levels. GFS consistently producing dew points in the mid to upper 70s, and astronomical CAPE (cue the "CAPE trumps everything" optimists from 4/26)

I'm also wary of the UH streaks up there being associated more with bowing segments. Clearly strong storms, but undercutting + wind profile gets junkier

Waiting for this to suddenly change day-of, but at least for the time being, this is one of very few events this year where the wind profile isn't so much a concern. These forecast hodographs have been pretty.

Please review the multitude of professionals who swore on their lives that no way could we achieve dew points in the upper 60s because the Gulf coast dew points the day before were in the upper 50s. Respect NWP or get left behind

At least a few of us sitting at the Shell on 183 South of Clinton right now

Guys let's focus on the meteorology of the event here please

People get easily stuck on the 5000 CAPE days in Oklahoma. Anything over like 1500 is gravy. CAPE 1500-2000 will not be a limiting factor as far as tornado potential goes. Last Tuesday there were several people that only cared about the huge CAPE and claimed it would "solve" all other issues.

Last Tuesday was absolutely a bust. A PDS watch with zero strong tornadoes. Even the 10% hatched tor ... First of all, again, zero strong tornadoes. Second, no one made that 10% tor region thinking "Oh we better cover the QLCS tornado threat". No, that was entirely in anticipation of a supercell mode that never transpired. Hence also the error in location of tors, as pointed out above. Finally, the outlook wording was always too strong. Constant mention of high risk, when the tor probs weren't even past the moderate risk threshold, and hail and wind probs were low end moderate. And the only way a high risk was happening without tors would be with an upgrade in wind probs, which was never a threat that was singled out for the day. I want to actually do a study on how many times "high risk" or "upgrade" has been mentioned in past moderate risks. It was absolutely completely unnecessary. The SPC, along with almost everyone else, fell on their butts Tuesday.

Absolutely. Though as a rule, never start in Frederick haha. There are like zero roads out of that place. Snyder is a good waiting point

Unlike WRF ARW and NMMB. Ew. HRRRX is more encouraging for the dryline in OK

Similar progression happened during May 24th, just further west

Guys, FYI, there's really nothing that shows a sudden increase in skill when a trough in question comes onshore. The discussion of sampling really doesn't have much significance

CMC has little change over the last 24 hours, and the synoptic comparison with May 24th is pretty impressive.

NAM uses the BMJ convective parameterization scheme, which is pretty strongly dependent on the presence of mid level moisture. As a result, it performs well for tropical-type convection, but can often miss or be delayed with continental convection. Especially for a day like Monday, which we know will have sparse convection anyway, take NAM precip with a grain of salt.

With regards to the 1/16-18 shortwaves, also considering that models often erroneously "pick" the leading s/w to be the primary developer in these scenarios. Still worth watching what happens with s/w #2, and think about the benefits of a squashed s/w #1

Yup both 66 and 78 have been common analogs for a while now for around the 1/17-18 timeframe. And given the pattern evolution and incoming Pacific energy, these are NOT trivial

All about the maturity of the NAO. There'll surely by positive height anomalies over Greenland, and the DS, but is it actually in true -NAO block form, or just an extension of ridging from the N Atl -- how significant is the cyclonic breaking of said ridge over the DS - and does it happen in time for the 1/17 threat

I actually downgraded. I now get model forecasts through fax.

Thanks man! Nothing here has changed. 1/17 continuing to hold interesting potential

Still a flat ridge though, along with a very +NAO. The northern branch of the split Pacific jet is wicked strong and just spilling right into North America through week 2.