vwgrrc

Someone tell me I'm reading this wrong please - 12z GFS seems even more bullish on the frozen QPF for most of the DFW. Almost X2 from 0z last night?! That's very concerning 

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

The headlines (or lack thereof) really don't matter to me. 

I hate ice (along with the extreme cold coming behind it) and I'm not looking forward to any amount of it.

I'm hopefully it does trend to a nothingburger.

 

100% agree. Like other had posted above - the takeaway at this point is that NAM is trending towards GFS, which is not a good new for the power grid.

5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

If you look closely, the NAM spares the heart of the Metroplex from much (if any) ice, with only advisory criteria amounts in the outer suburbs.

(^^^Oh, Thank Heaven!!!)

Different story along the OK border around Sherman though.

Not sure if I'm looking at the same thing - but at least the 12KM NAM i'm looking at, Thursday 9-15z has DFW under mostly freezing ice and sleet. That's 6 hours under icing condition!

6 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Euro has proven itself to be very unreliable and inconsistent with these type events over the past few years. ICON and GFS to a lesser degree are king in this situation. The combo of two very strong forces, 1050mb Arctic high and strong negative tilt short wave, make it very difficult for models to resolve. My opinion is to go on past experience which is the shortwave will be more SW than modeled and the surface cold will bleed south faster than modeled except in far eastern Texas where the Ouachita Mountains will block it.

Thanks for sharing! Now at 12z, NAM starting to pick up this event. The frozen p amount seems lower than what GFS, CMC and ICON suggested at this point. I wonder how we read that? Is that a timing difference or mesoscale just has a better insight in this case?

I wouldn't get too confident on anything until Euro and GFS converge.  Globals not known for low level temp resolution, either, but it seems like mesoscale models aren't really good outside 48 hours, or Tuesday earliest to get *super* excited.

True. Also is notable that 12z euro stepped back on the frozen p quite a bit. That's hard to ignore given we're still about 4 days out.

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3 hours ago, cheese007 said:

I take it based on the latest graphics out of FWD they're on the hype train

Comparing the latest GFS to those op runs yesterday, there seems like a drier-trend underway for at least the immediate DFW metro (less freezing train or sleet?), I think that's a good thing. Will need to watch if 12z CMC and Euro can agree with that!

Edit: ECMWF does dial back on the frozen p a lot at 12z. Interesting!

Media hype getting into gear already. February always seems to be make or break for North Texas winters!

IMO, the AFD tonight will be quite critical to watch if that is likely going to pan out or stay with a media hype!

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If your looking at the precipitation output, the icon only shows rain and snow. So it doesn’t pick up sleet or freezing rain. If you compare temps and precip maps, you get an better understanding of impacts. 

That's exactly right. Thanks!

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Today's 0z and 12z Canadian and all of its ensembles are are just as bad with ice/sleet for DFW if not worse, particularly the 12z op Canadian.
Should also note the ICON and JMA are showing stuff too.

Not trying to challenge you. Just curious and for learning - 12z ICON looks like a pure rain event for dfw. Also there's might be a warmer trend going on. Maybe I'm reading it correctly? Thanks

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GGEM would be a nasty sleet storm for DFW, and GFS would be a nasty ice storm.
Awful...

I won't Buy that at this point to be honest, exactly like our friends at FWD office pointed out this morning. Models are overdoing that most likely.

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Look like the entire suite of 0z guidance this morning and their ensembles from the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF or onboard for a crippling ice storm for the DFW Metroplex for the Feb 4th timeframe.

6z gfs agrees even more

But very interesting writeup from FWD this morning. I guess they feel the pressure.

Global model snow/ice accumulation forecasts... - The temporal resolution (how many hours apart) of global models in the extended period is usually 6 hours. The model generates a precip-type forecast for the first hour of each time-step and keeps it constant for the entire 6 hour block of time. In the case of passing arctic fronts and/or changing temperatures, the precip type in the real-world will be continuously changing. However, the model is unaware of these temperature changes between time-steps and assumes a constant p-type for 6 hours. The model then generates a 6-hour QPF (Quantitative Precip Forecast or how much liquid water will fall) and assumes all of the QPF will fall as the pre-determined p-type for the entire 6 hours. If the meteorological situation involves rapidly changing temperatures, such as behind arctic fronts, this effect creates wildly unreliable and inaccurate snow & ice accumulation forecasts. Next week is one of these situations, so please take any model snow/ice forecast with a huge grain of salt for the next couple days.

FWIW, North TX especially dfw metro seems facing some serious troubles around 2/4 next week if model holds true. There are still many pending litigationa against ERCOT from last years winter storm. Crazy.

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I was about to say that 18z GFS looks direr initially... but man that 133+hr looks crazy. That puts DFW right in the center of a huge ice storm. I don't think that's too realistic.

15 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

0z and 12z op ECMWF appear on board...though the 12z is slowing the cold air intrusion keeping precip liquid. Typical bias of this model in this situation. It looks like a dense/shallow intrusion at least initially which might not get properly resolved until the NAM comes in range. This also points to more of a ice event vs snow this time.

I can't wait to see the media hype probably starting this weekend if the trend holds. Given how bad and how refresh people's memory is on Feb-21 storm, there might be some serious hoarding coming soon (not a fan of that to be honest )

7 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

I am not sure to what you are referring, but the latest 12z Canadian has a low of 13°F at DFW on February 5th which is indicative of a significant Arctic air intrusion. It does not have much in the way of precip. However, the 12z GFS is icemeggedon! What I am strongly bullish on is a significant cold air dump.

Oh yes I agree with the cold air part! I was just referring to a freezing rain/sleet event. Canadian was showing icemeggedon yesterday/Wed but now it seems that switched with GFS.

Also wanted to note that both 6z and 12z GFS is showing that, which certainly worth watching from now on. If Canadian decided to join the party this weekend, that spells pretty big trouble for DFW. Dec 2013 is not completely out of reach!

On 1/27/2022 at 11:45 AM, DFWWeather said:

What is interesting is nearly every major global model and much of their ensembles have been in remarkable agreement in the evolution of the pattern since Monday. Something to watch for sure!

I probably wouldn't be that bullish at this point tbh. Looks like Canadian suggested that in the last couple days and GFS came to agreement today but the latest Canadian just left the chat. Probably temporarily but still left the chat 

3 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said:

The lower levels of those massive semi-circle parking garages seem like a good option, especially Terminal D's, since the west side is wrapped and mostly shielded by the terminal.  I'd duck in if the radar looks risky, I bet the parking fee is cheaper than the insurance deductable in America's hail capital.

haha Thanks so much! I need to watch radar closely from now on.

Gosh no. I have an airport pick up at 7-ish. Probably the worst time to show up at DFW... 

Should I stay home for while or arrive there early and hide in the garage?

20z HRRR seems showing more snow than previous runs (mainly longer period) for the most part of the metroplex.

49 minutes ago, SnowMan said:

Wonder how much snow melt we will see up in North Texas today before tomorrow's storm.  Hopefully not too much, but with a high around 20 and the sun angle we could see more than expected.

latest guidance seems showing a lower amount of snow/sleet than previously expected. Not a bad news given the stress we have in infrastructure now

NWS AFD on icing -

The latest 3km NAM suggests a significant freezing rain
event will take place with ice accumulations greater than
currently forecast, however, it may be a little too aggressive
with its low level warming given the extremely cold airmass in
place. We`ll have to watch this closely though through the day
Tuesday. Our current forecast will continue to advertise a
freezing rain/sleet potential mainly from the Metroplex southward
with a transition over to snow late in the night. Areas from the
Metroplex northward may see more snow accumulation. Ice
accumulations of 1/10 to 1/4 inch appear likely, especially from
the Waco/Temple/Killeen areas northeast in the Palestine/Canton
areas. There will also be some minor ice accumulations through the
Metroplex before a transition to snow. Snowfall amounts will
range from 2 to 6 inches with the heaviest amounts northeast of
the Metroplex...

Edit: meanwhile 18Z GFS largely dialed down the Wednesday threat.

1 hour ago, TexMexWx said:

Yup, do not like that. The warm nose is going to probably be a much bigger issue for us this time around than yesterday.

18z HRRR is pushing the snow/sleet slightly south and right across the middle of the metroplex. That's better than 12z, but at the same time a little bit more QPF.

32 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

As of the NWS Fort Worth's last area forecast discussion, with regard to the next system, they think that areas north of highway 380 see mostly snow, and then between there and I-20 sees a sleet, freezing rain, and snow mix. So, the further north you are, the more snow you could see (being DFW-centric here).

So that basic place the immediate DFW into trouble zone 

4 minutes ago, SnowMan said:

Yeah I am pulling up the GFS...new at reading models, but doesn't seem like there is a ton of QPF with this.  Although it does look it drops right over our house lol. We are located where the blue/purple is in north texas.

I'm more leaning towards NAM/HRRR at this range and for the type of event. But I'm not a professional by any mean.

Just now, SnowMan said:

What do you mean exactly?  What are you seeing?

I mean there's a chance it could a more sleet/freezing rain even than purely snow. HRRR & NAM seem both indicating that.