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0Z GFS just hinted some snow late Thursday to Friday for DFW. I mean we're about 5 days out. Still time for some interesting twists.

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Really? I'm right down the street from you and ever since the brief attempt at clearing I mentioned earlier, we've been stuck under a mix of residual stratus and cirrus debris.

EDIT: Or when you mean "N. Dallas," do you mean The Colony (not the neighborhood North Dallas)?

 

Yes I should clarify it's far North Dallas, Tollway/PGBT area. Now back to overcast

Sun is out in N. Dallas area.

10 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

The setup seems to have some similarities with May 2, 2007.

Just finish reading (thanks for sharing!), I'm going to charge my power banks now!

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/highwind07

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

The SPC's discussion even mentions the potential of hurricane force winds with the MCS as it develops a cold pool

That sounds like some powerline issues if it occurs in DFW...

17 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

The good news for the heart of DFW is the the storms moving into the metro look to be outflow-dominant (outflow within the purple-circled line).

That’s provided that something doesn’t form ahead of the line.

 

 

So mostly straight wind and hail?

1 minute ago, cheese007 said:

Getting some sun out by the airport

Almost full blast around Denton/Colin Ct. This is a bit concerning at least. 

12 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

Most of the activity north of I-30 is struggling, although the cell over Lewisville is really trying. Just got some thunder from it.

S Denton Ct is firing up now. Seems a bit west then HRRR forecasted.

3 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

NWS continues expanding WWAs south to the I-20 corridor. Amounts should be around half an inch near I-20 with an inch plus possible near the Red River. Before the snow, light rain and sleet will fall. The snow will likely come in a quick burst that could quickly cover roads and especially bridges. Other than precip expect cold wind chills all day today. A hard freeze is possible tonight where snow accumulates.

 

I would doubt if we see that much based how things go now. I'm in S Denton Ct. It seems the current temp is just a bit warmer than they expected, which will make a large difference in this case.

Edit: Raining pretty hard now. 1C outside. I consider myself to be pretty far north of I-20 here 

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

Looks like more sleet and snow for North Texas this morning and showers elsewhere. Friday may bring snow to the northern half of Texas. Saturday morning looks like it may being a widespread hard freeze.

Yes. Sleeting hard here in Denton Ct. A bit unexpected.

Friday doesn't look very promising at this point. GFS seems like the only model saying there will be any meaningful snow.

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

FTW kicks off what will likely be a major expansion of warnings that will eventually stretch from the Hill Country to NE TX. Likely to include Austin, Waco, maybe Tyler and up to Paris and maybe down to San Antonio. Amounts trending down for N TX and up for Central and eastern Texas.

Yes they provided that update about an hour ago. I don't see where they mention amounts trending down for N TX. But I tend to agree with you at this point. With DFW metro still sitting very quiet at this point, I doubt if there's enough time to even reach the warning criteria like they expected earlier. The second wave was expected to get here by early evening but it didn't.

Getting freezing rain with some thunderstorm activity at my location in Fort Worth.  We’ve also been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.
This burst of convection looks to make things get ugly earlier than expected.

5 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

With the cold so shallow not sure drying will be an issue. Could lead to introduction of more sleet for North Texas as cold will be a bit deeper than expected. Main change is a large shift SE in the freezing rain line.

FWIW, 18z NAM is indeed trending drier than previous runs.

All 12z guidance are still grossly behind on the timing/intensity of the cold front. For references, they all modeled the freezing line at noon to be round OKC and Dallas *should* be within 50-55F range. In reality, Downtown OKC is currently sitting at 26F and Dallas is at 40F.

That's just wild given it's short range and how large the deviation is and all models being so off. This makes me wonder if the actual ice we end up getting for DFW will be a lot higher than modeled since they're all showing some rain (ECMWF and GFS are showing pretty much all rain on Thursday).

1 minute ago, aggiegeog said:

With the cold so shallow not sure drying will be an issue. Could lead to introduction of more sleet for North Texas as cold will be a bit deeper than expected. Main change is a large shift SE in the freezing rain line.

True. This event has a lot less moisture than the one 3 weeks ago. But a bigger portion of that will fall in form of FZRA compared to sleet or snow we had in that one. This could still be a high impact event for at least part of the metro here. 

3 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Meanwhile the cold front is *well* ahead of schedule: 

 

The freezing line as of 900CST is already sitting around Abilene, TX - Durant, OK line. The latest GFS is only modeling that to play out after midnight. A 15-hour difference is just insane! I don't think I ever seen such a large difference in terms of the timing of a cold front. But on the other hand, I guess that can be a good news as it could make it drier/less froze precipitation? But I'm too sure about this.

Meanwhile, 0z models are trending a little wetter for the Wed/Thursday possible wintery event...

How crazy is that to have sever t-storm warning and FRZR within barely 48 hours!

Thanks for sharing! It's a little hard to believe GFS and NAM are still showing a large difference at this point on where that freezing line will be on Thursday, which could make a notable difference to DFW. CMC is in the middle/closer to NAM and have DFW under freezing rain most of the time. But I'm not very sure about the track record of CMC for these setups. 

Edit: Looks like 18z GFS is retracting the FZRA/sleet band even more towards northwest (warmer for DFW) and NWS continues to side with colder guidance. Interesting!

6 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

There is a lot of mid-upper level dry air which has been modeled the entire time but it's saturated high enough to precipitate. From a weather geek standpoint it's not often you see a bone dry mid-upper level sounding with a low level stratiform deck that begins as liquid water and reaches the surface as sleet or freezing rain. It's more frequent to see precipitation begin as snow, melt and refreeze. Thankfully this stratiform type of setup allows everything to be light with low QPF amounts. However, to get sleet we will need some ice crystals which may be hard to attain given the static look to soundings. You would need colder temperatures in the boundary layer and likely slightly better lift than modeled to get the ice crystals necessary for that to materialize, otherwise we're looking at FZRA or FZDZ.

37 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Yeah the ECMWF hasn't done well with these shallow, cold air masses which explains why they are leaning colder. NAM could be too cold but I think leaning that way is good at the current lead time.

True! 12Z NAM still stands strong on its cold picture looks like. The not-so-good news is all models seem trending drier at the same time and there's not much time left to flip back to the wetter side? But I'm not a meteorologist so could be wrong for sure 

11 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

This week looks cold with a good chance for freezing rain in North Texas later in the week.

This one seems a bit interesting as it's harder than the event 3 weeks ago for models to reach any consensus at this range. What's even more interesting is that NWS suggested they're picking side with the colder ones like NAM/GFS than EU models. I feel most of time in the past they stayed mid-ground or even tilting warmer. Maybe they just have more faith in NAM in this set up. If that plays out, there could be some impact for the northern half of DFW.

Please correct me if I was wrong - but looks like there's a hint something might be brewing for North TX around 23-24th next week. Of course it's still way too early to predict the p-type and location. But GFS seems starting to join CMC showing at least the pattern will be more favorable for a wintery event around that time frame.

Things getting quiet down here in Denton and Collin Ct. After all this is not nearly as bad as the models depicted. I'm curious why they missed with so many consensus and consistency for about a week. But after all this is good for the metroplex!

Just switched from FR to sleet in S Denton County. That was about 4 hours of FR.I feel this started a little earlier than expected but didn't quite progress as bad as the models depicted. I saw a clear coat of ice on tree branches about 9PM and that stays basically unchanged as of now, which is fine for powerline. Hopefully I didn't call that too early!

Edit: looks like a portion of Addison lost power based on Oncor map. Not sure if @Powerball is still on

Just now, Powerball said:

Yes, and they did flicker a 2nd time after that post.

I'm about 10 miles north of you I'm monitoring Oncor's map closely. Everything looks good so far. Finger crossed it stays that way!

41 minutes ago, Powerball said:

My power flickered about 10-15 minutes ago.

Here we go...

Addison?