vwgrrc

48 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

We keep trending that way.

All models starting to agree on some winters precip next week for most of the state. Some models more significant than others Still a long way to go but this is about the time all the models starting to converge on the last storm. Most models have any precip in most of the state falling with temps in the high teens to low 20’s. Again, long way away but what is being shown as of now would be a dream scenario for high snow ratios especially the further north you go. 

Was about to come here to say this. If history is any indication, the only thing can be said for sure now is it's going to change. But what's interesting is the precip is trending a bit north on the latest runs. That trend was observed on all models. 

Edit - Nevermind, 0z Euro pushes it even further south, snowing in Galveston i guess... 

1 hour ago, SWineman said:

That was fun! On to the next. Jan 21st anyone?

It close to impossible for models to nail anything that far out 

S Denton Ct here transited to snow in the last 30 mins or so. Accumulation seems picking back up. If it continues for the next 6 hr like HRRR and NAM modeled, this is still going to be a pretty big event here.

6 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

DFW metro now sitting just above the freezing mark (33 - 34 F), reporting just rain in parts of Fort Worth. Icy road reports still piling up around there on Drive Texas map.

Not sure why Dallas NWS hasn't posted any FZ rain or icing LSRs from around there yet (still only snow ones).

If it's just hover above freezing now, I feel it should go below freezing quickly after dark. That should make the rain-snow transition earlier than many short range model says. 

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

Time to now cast, you can look at HRRR or RAP if you want but best bet is to see what is to your SW for precip and west for temps.

Understanding it's nowcast time, but pretty much all the models I can see is currently increasing the snow total for DFW. Definitely not a bad sign.

6 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

DFW has a current temp of 30°F (fell from 36°F this morning) with moderate sleet coming down.

Yea that's interesting. I actually just checked again. Both model says my location should be 34/33F at 14z but currently it's 30/31. I think is really comes down to how much it could warm up in the afternoon. That could swing the snow total by a lot.

7 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Pretty much what I'm expecting it to be in DFW tomorrow. A real winter precip battleground that's going to be extremely interesting. Which I'm sure does not happen often there in NTX.

Could get very messy though with all the low-level WAA, and then the snow coming & packing it in Thursday night.

I just read the latest Dallas/Fort Worth NWS forecast discussion and even the meteorologist (Shamburger) who wrote that evening update a couple hours ago is fascinated by this setup. This is definitely going to be one to note in the wx forecasting books as it's been challenging to figure out how it's all going to pan out around DFW since last week.

Good call here. Both 12z NAM and HRRR came in notably warmer than yesterday. DFW is basically a cold rain until later this evening if that holds true. a bit disappointing but at least there's still plenty of snow overnight, hopefully!

The trend in the more reliable models is still warmer in the LLs further north. I'm even seeing today's 12z Euro is starting to go in that direction as well up in DFW area. Which was the most pessimistic on the warming the past several days and kept showing more snow.
And I agree with [mention=6223]Chargers09[/mention] that the models usually do underforecast the strength of these WAA patterns in TX this time of year. Particularly with these much more dynamic incoming systems out west this time of year.
Either way I'm already seeing the evidence of a stronger WAA regime on Brownsville VWP radar right now.

SW Denton Ct here -1C now. About 1-2C cooler than most short range models said.

Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk

55 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

That does look really solid. 3-6" snow for DFW, 4-8" snow for I-30, 1-3" sleet/snow for I-20.

18z NAM also stepping up notablely!

1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said:

 

Not seeing any real thermal differences and I trust the 12z runs more from experience. 850Mb 0 C line is still way too close over DFW for all-snow comfort through the entire event until later Thursday night.

Should also note 700Mb 0 C line also still pretty close on both runs as well.

0z Canadian/RDPS and Euro/EPS both came in looking relatively good. Slightly less crazy than previous run but at least starting to show some signs of consistency with GFS along with HRRR. I would remain cautiously optimistic about snow for the 4 counties in the metroplex.

Both today's 12z GFS & Euro trending on a slower approach of the H5 Low out west and consistently still quite potent & large. This could easily allow for longer/deeper low-level WAA over the eastern part of state as the Gulf Low is likely to track more northward up the coast instead of offshore. With a fairly strong southerly LLJ (possibly 50 knots in STX which is definitely plausible in this scenario but could be even stronger as I've seen in past years, this time of year).
While not likely, it's definitely worth noting Canadian wants to bring the 850Mb Gulf circulation further inland over ETX Thursday night on today's 12z run.
WPC now even has a marginal excessive rainfall risk posted for mid-upper coast for possible 3 - 5 in. rain totals Thursday - Friday morning (Day 3). Which would 100% be above normal for this time of year in such short duration.
---
850Mb temp even now on DFW 0z UA obs this evening is only around -2 C (-3 this morning) per SPC data with above freezing values not well south either. All in all, it's pretty safe to say now it will not be an all-snow event in DFW. Moisture should not be an issue around there in this scenario with the large-scale and fairly deep WAA regime over the eastern part of state.
And it's definitely keeping my eyes pinned on that up north way more than the coastal & possibly even up to ETX heavy rainfall threat (again there) around me. Even thunder potential over all coastal region which SPC noting on D3 outlook. Which I wouldn't rule out a supercell or two near the upper coast with 60s DPs coming right next to the coast (even upper 60s not far offshore) on both GFS & Euro, with such a very dynamic system out west. Which I still don't think many here realize.

3 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

Just when it seems models were coming back into decent consensus, here comes the 0z NAM to derail that… again. 

4 days ago this was looking like the best chance at a slam dunk solid snowstorm for DFW in recent memory. I think we are just going to need to wait till the event starts and do nowcasting as it often comes down to around here with snow. The temps are very close either way. 
 

I’ll say I don’t buy a cold rain event as 2 runs of the NAM have shown today and I don’t believe we’re getting 8-10 inches of snow. I am hopeful for at least 3-5 inches in the metroplex. 

True. But i think it's notable that most models are showing colder and wetter than earlier today including NAM itself. HRRR is particularly aggressive with the shift. 

25 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Seems that NWS is becoming even less bullish on snow for this event in DFW.   But, this is TX and who knows what’s gonna happen.  

0z HRRR in range now. It seems onboard with more sleet than snow at this a point!

Update: actually... just refreshed HRRR again. More snow on the back end. So basically both in pretty impressive amount looks like.

16 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Meanwhile, at first glance, 18z NAM is looking notably cooler...

Yes. 48H out now. A lot colder than 12z. Maybe just back to how it looks at 6z.

18z NAM says oh we're so back

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

agreed that it is wild that we are having this much model trouble within 48h of onset. RGEM has 2" QPF for DFW and NAM has basically 0" QPF. Other models in between but none go anywhere close to 0 for DFW. 06Z NAM fell in line with other models then 12Z just goes way off by itself. Super odd behavior even for the sometimes crazy NAM.

12z CMC/RDPS is still very bullish on snow. GEFS is also more or less on board but less aggressive. Quite wild situation tbh. 

And of course, Euro coming in and is still dumping a lot of snow for Dallas. Feel bad for folks at NWS on this one 

43 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Models this morning really want to hang a chunk of the trough back in the SW which is killing our event. I still think this has a good chance to revert back to previous solutions assuming we can get the trough to eject whole.

Interesting that NWS is normally very conservative on issuing a Watch especially for DFW. They won't just take a few model runs and say it's gonna be a winter storm. What convinced them or is this gonna be a big bust fot them as well?

2 hours ago, DFWWeather said:

The 0z deterministic ECMWF cut its snow in half for DFW, however, the 6z did not disappoint, nor do a majority of the ensemble members of both runs. The 6z NAM is also not disappointing. I have noticed, now that we are getting in range of the hi-res models, that much of the snow in the Big Country into West Texas is much less. The GFS is significantly warmer than the NAM, ECMWF, CMC, and their ensembles. Even though it has accumulating snow (much less), but should really only be a cold rain given its temps. I see a reinforcing surge at H85 of cold air coming into the state tomorrow and again behind the departing system.  I think the 6z ECMWF temps look reasonable through Saturday.

12z NAM came in basically no snow at all for DFW! Quite a swing at close range to be honest 

10 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Will be a pretty monumental fail for the EURO if it ends up wrong and caving to these other models.

"Grandma not mad. Grandma just hurt."

Same for NAM. 

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Over 15" for the Northern and Western suburbs...

And a crippling Ice Storm just south of the Metroplex...

0z RDPS (Canadian) seems more or less onboard with NAM just a little north placing DFW around the transition zone of FZR. Quite wild to watch. If GFS and Euro join at 0z, this can be easily a historical event.

Edit - GFS coming in significantly warmer than earlier today. Seems like a trend from 18z. Now it almost paints a cold rain event for DFW. I don't remember if I've seen such a large divergence between NAM and GFS at this close range. Curious what's the reason behind it

0z NAM is printing a foot of snow for Dallas... can't even imagine that. Waiting for others models to confirm that. The previous GFS run was a bit drier. 

47 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

We are talking about a very wet storm, key for this forecast is nailing where the column stays sub 32F. For example my location is modelled for >1.5" QPF while the entire column rides within 2C of freezing the whole event from the surface to above 700mb. That would result in a constant fluctuation of precip types so could be talking a 1" elevated surface only ice storm, 3" plus sleet and snow mix or a foot of snow. Tiny variations in the atmosphere will make massive differences.

Yea. 18z GFS seems confirming that drier+warmer trend actually. ICON isn't the best but that NAM run looks really outlandish. This still has a chance to become a cold rain even for NTX looks like. 

18z NAM seems wonky. It shows a foot of snow for half of the state... ICON actually came in drier

36 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Would t be surprised to see a WWA for NW half of N TX and possibly expanded a bit SE from there. 

Interestingly tho i don't think it's common to see NAM being so strong for a FZRN event in NTX while all other models keep that in OK, especially given it's now only 48 hr out. It normally the opposite! Curious to see how AFD gonna interpret the divergence. 

Some freezing rain seems likely for Monday AM in DFW metro. Still could change a lot at this point.