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512high

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    It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

    in New England

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    The problem is mechanics in the flow. It’s a rounded trough base and fast flow. That is plenty to “keep it from coming north”. If we can sharpen the shortwave with a slightly stronger vort, then that’s one way, but otherwise most of us are prob just getting some flakes and maybe a dusting. I’d def keep an eye on it down in southern zones though. 

    Do you think the winds will be stronger tomorrow than yesterday? I just noticed I have an advisory  (not sure if I had one yesterday day before) 

    It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

    in New England

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Okay.....intrigued on 2/24....but I think winter is over there after and anything prior is a nuisance.

    Ray, Did you say on the other thread you scored 1.5" today? ASH .25". I probably now at 27"+/_, I am not bailing out, maybe I will be the last guy standing, I remain in till April 1, after that I have no desire. I just can't believe the whole month of March will go down with out an event for the interior, but nothing would surprise me. 

    It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, JKEisMan said:

    Man, people need to chill. This is still 5+ days out. Good cross-model support for a nice storm and the ensembles have some good hits. I mean, yeah I get the “gotta be real” and all that, but look at it from glass half full once in a while, no? Enjoy the ride. 

    Been quite here, granted still a ways out, but something to track, love the chase, might be crap,but nothing else.

    • Like 2

    January 2024 -- Discussion

    in New England

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Crunchy under foot on the deck tonight grilling. Winter feel. Trees still have some snow on them while down at bottom of hill it’s all off the trees. 

    Agree, I was walking the dogs, that's stuff froze up nice, should soften a tad tommoro for my area, still lingering on some branches/limbs, down to 22F

    • Like 1

    Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

    in New England

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    I wanted to get back and change both recent titles actually, but during the course of both run-up week(s) I was bombed at work; and so it not really being a huge priority in anyone's life ( certainly should not be),  I didn't find the time do so - oh well.

    That said, I don't typically use the word "threat," anyway.  Not a big fan of that expression. I feel/suspect it is used ( if unconsciously ) to lean everything in a euphoria pitch. I like talking about prospects more dispassionately than that. 

    I refer to 'periods of interest,' and then if those coalesce more coherently, 'signals' is warranted.    I find that tact to be necessarily neutral enough.  I am aware that I do reasonably well at diagnosing these events in the D6-10 range - not my first rodeo and have been told this over the years.  NO, one cannot guarantee therein who gets the 8" and who "suffers" with 3" ...  But the confidences of those, this season so far, have worked out well being set at medium for good reasons  -I'm satisfied with the verification on both.   But therein lies some responsibility not to inflate using dialogue that contributes to that euphoria thing people have created out of weather modeling graphics-engagement.  Which I frankly am not even sure that is healthy -

    Don't change a thing! I know some members here did not get snow, some got bonus surprises , I will take my 4.25" of snow and run with it,  I thought I was going to be at 30" after this event, but looked at my chart I keep and I am at 26.5" going into Feb. who knows I could be off an inch here or there, etc. For snow enthusiasts its always great when you and others sniff out potential, yes, no guarantee , but the chase sometimes is just as fun (sometimes haha) hopefully on to the next signal!

    • Like 1

    Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

    There's a decent gradient around here. 2.5-4" in my yard, but I see 6-7" reports a few miles away in East Derry/Chester. Northern part of Windham probably has 1-2" more than me. 300-350' or so seems to make the difference too in these, I'm only at 250'. 

    And to be honest at around 11pm last night I measure 4.5" but this stuff was hvy/compaction

    Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Even the European positive depth change map has you at 2". Maybe I should have added another range and not have 4-7" encompass such a large area, but forecasters give ranges for 2 reasons. Not only to convey potential of reaching a certain number at a given location, but also for the purpose of growing in larger area in which different locales will fall into said range. Common sense dictates that if you are on the se edge of a large area of 4-7", then the map probably implying that you will be closer to 4" than 7".

    I was hoping I would get a 6" snowfall, that would bring me just about to 30"+/- we sit back and see how it plays out, just cover the ground again.

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