CTP thinks the Eastern part our region is in the game for good rain.
Focus shifts to heavy rain potential on Thursday as the approach
of mid/upper trough through the Great Lakes combined with moist
south/southwest flow ahead of TS Elsa continues to raise
concerns about potential heavy rainfall on Thursday. An overall
western trend has continued in model guidance today, raising
some concerns for my far southeastern counties to potentially be on the periphery of heavy rains. There remains uncertainty in how convective bands may setup, leading to low confidence in how far west precip trends will evolve. WPC D2 SLGT risk ERO (2 out of 4)includes the eastern 1/3 of the CWA. We will continue to monitor with heavy rain/ff becoming the primary hazards on
Thursday. As of now, PHI and LWX will be bordering our southeast
counties with Flash Flood Watches as 2 to locally 4" is targeting areas just ESE of my counties.
Increased cloud cover and anticipated widespread shower
activity will shave about 7-10 degrees from recent highs with
fcst maxTs in the mid 70s to mid/upper 80s. It will remain humid with dewpoints holding in the 65-70F range. Latest NHC track takes TS Elsa off the NJ coast by 12Z Friday but the cone of uncertainty has been brought a bit farther to the west so we may see some rain from Elsa clip the southeast.