Blizzard of 93

Long way to go, heck the Euro Op & Canadian Op are barely in 10 day range yet for the beginning of the pattern change on the 13th. The blocking that is developing will also throw models into fits as well.

As a few posters in the Mid Atlantic thread have said recently, we need to be patient. This upcoming pattern should produce, but some people probably will lose patience & sadly not make it…

Furthermore, the ever so slight ridging in the Midwest at hour 384 on the 18z GEFS looks to be in response to the massive strong Greenland block that is backing to west. The STJ continues to push further to the east over the Gulf states. You also still have troughing in the 50/50 space at hour 384. This look, if it would hold, would still have plenty of good going for it. Also, temps at 384 are still cold in the east. Besides this, I think we will have a chance to score before day 16, & as I posted a little earlier, the good pattern should provide chances into early March.

I’m not worried about day 16 in the 18z GEFS when the day 13 map looks like this…

Here are the corresponding pattern looks on the Euro Weeklies for weeks 3, 4, & 5.

Here are the corresponding pattern looks on the Euro Weeklies for weeks 3, 4, & 5.

Good to see the precip juicing up on the Euro Weeklies for when the good pattern sets in for weeks 3, 4 & 5.

I see what you mean, but I think we will be good with the strong blocking up top, the STJ under cutting, & the 50/50 showing nicely at range. It’s just a matter of time until we get hit with a Winter Storm in my opinion & the opinion of lots of posters & pros.

I am so pumped for the upcoming pattern change. It’s great to see @psuhoffman so confident as well.

The SOI has been crashing for the last week, especially the last few days. This should help as we approach the better pattern towards mid month.

He’s going to have a heck of a busted forecast this year…. Lol, I hope they have a nice place for Phil to live because the wild groundhogs will be likely buried in snow later this month…

All 3 global ensembles continue to advertise the pattern change beginning on the 12th/13th & continuing to improve through the end of their 15 or 16 day runs. Here are the 5 day ensemble means.

All 3 global ensembles continue to advertise the pattern change beginning on the 12th/13th & continuing to improve through the end of their 15 or 16 day runs. Here are the 5 day ensemble means.

Here is the second chance on the 6z GFS a couple of days later on the 15th. Happy Friday!

The 6z GFS has 2 chances for us to score snow during the pattern transition week. Here is the first chance this run on the 13th.

Yes indeed & still 2 months to score.

The ensembles are locking in on this pattern change being real & hopefully they deliver snowy ground truth from mid month onward.

Lol, This is obviously a Miller B on the Op. You had responded to my post on the ensembles look at hour 294 with your comment on the Op run, hence the confusion.

The 6z GEFS is only out to hour 348 on WB right now….but it has clearly continued to develop into a great look a few days after the 294 hour maps posted above.

Here is the end of the EPS at hour 360 & the Canadian ensemble at hour 384….the good looks have developed into very good looks…

The main point of my post is that ALL 3 ensembles show the pattern changing UNDER 300 hours- no more extrapolating 384 maps & extended ensemble products. This is the BEGINNING of the the pattern change at hour 294……….

The better looks are now beginning at under 300 hours by the 13th on all 3 global ensembles.

The better looks are now beginning at under 300 hours by the 13th on all 3 global ensembles.

6z GFS says Happy Valentine’s Day to CTP.

We are going to more than make up for this lost time. Many Winters that we remember as good seasons had long breaks in the action in peak climo.