Blizzard of 93

I like this part of CTP’s discussion! At this time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet for most of the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather will continue into the first week of December as cold air in the middle of the country sets up a strong baroclinic zone over the eastern US. High pressure in the Plains should keep cold air in place on the northern side of the precipitation shield from a wave of low pressure progged to move out of the Gulf. This system should move northeast around the base of the aforementioned high pressure system, bringing increasing moisture to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. The system at this time looks to be somewhat progressive with the lack of a strong area of high pressure to slow the advance of the system. Despite the expected fast forward movement, a deepening coastal low could still provide enough forcing juxtaposed with favorable upper jet dynamics to produce significant snowfall across the region. Snow looks to arrive later Monday night and lift across the region during the day on Monday. The eventual track and intensity of the low will have big implications on observed snowfall totals and the northward extent of any mix/rain scenarios. The latest WPC probabilities of 0.25" or greater liquid equivalent snow/sleet paint medium probabilities (40-70%) across most of the region, with slightly lower amounts expected in northwest PA. The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a 30-50% chance of Warning criteria snowfall (5"+) in northeast PA. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+ continue to outline probabilities <30% with a higher likelihood in northeast PA up through coastal New England. If confidence increases in higher amounts, Watches may be needed in the next 24-48 hours. At this time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet for most of the region. Continue to monitor the forecast in the days ahead, especially if you have plans to travel.

CTP’s forecast discussion is very detailed this morning for the Tuesday potential.

He is typically forecasting for Lanco, which is very much on the fence for Tuesday. I think 90% of CTP is in good shape for our first measurable to plowable event of the season on Tuesday.

If I was in Lanco, I’d be concerned about Tuesday, but I think most of us are in good shape for at least our first measurable to maybe plowable event this season.

18z ICON for the win

12z Euro very similar to the Canadian. Im signing… again, lol!

The 12z Canadian is a solid middle ground, similar to recent Euro runs. I would sign for this on Tuesday.

We also need to look at the light chance early Sunday as well for minor potential of an appetizer.

0z Canadian looked decent as well for most of us.

6z Euro & 6z GFS are keeping CTP very much in the game.

Turkey hangovers for some of us …

18z GFS & 18z Euro say that most of CTP is still in the game for Tuesday.

12z GFS snow for just Tuesday.