Blizzard of 93

MDT reported light snow the last couple of hours, so maybe we tack on a few tenths today to the monthly tally ?

For Friday, the Latest GFS & Euro both have a little snow for the Susquehanna Valley changing to an icy mix potential. The GFS brings more sleet & the Euro brings more freezing rain at this time. Still time, but for more snow instead of mix, we need that -NAO to flex a bit more to lock in that High in Quebec.

Bare ground in Marysville. If there were any flakes, I missed them.

0z GFS & 0z Canadian both show a sleet fest for many of us on Friday.

With that dew point you should drop to near 30 when precipitation arrives. Tonight is a light event, but it doesn’t take much frozen to cause road issues.

How did the 18z Euro AI & GFS AI trend for us for Friday?

Thankfully Mt. Holly has a very good discussion for the Friday potential… LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high. Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This setup will likely bring widespread precipitation to our area. The more recent trends over the last few runs from guidance has resulted in significant changes to the forecast. The main reason is a much stronger high that suppresses a weaker low. This trend keeps much of our area in a setup for colder air to remain in place thanks to the stronger high to the north. A more suppressed and southern track of this low keeps widespread precipitation for the area but also prevents a lot of the warm air advection from getting into the region. The updated forecast now has highs on Friday in the mid to upper 30s for the I- 95 corridor and west with mid to upper 20s in the Poconos. Areas south and east of the I-95 corridor have highs in the low to mid 40s. Wintry precipitation is now the result for much of the area for at least part of the timeframe from daybreak Friday into Saturday. Mixed precipitation may make it as far south as parts of Delmarva.

I’m not sure what CTP is thinking for Friday, but they have not updated their forecast discussion at all in the long range portion. They updated their point & click grids this afternoon as a few folks mentioned, but they still aren’t addressing the growing concern for Wintry weather on Friday, which again will be a major travel day for many.

MDT & Lancaster airport are both down to 31 degrees this hour with dew points in the low 20s at MDT & high teens in Lanco. Precip at least aloft has broken out in western PA.

For Friday, the 18z GFS still has snow to a nasty wintry mix potential. It will all depend on the strength & position of that High sitting over Quebec. Lots of time, but good to see the trend from last night hold for today’s runs so far.

If the trends from 0z & 6z on the Euro & GFS continue today, the forecasts for Friday will be changing rapidly. The 6z GFS has a snowstorm for southern PA & the 6z Euro shows an ice storm chance. The High is in a great spot, so let’s see how the trends go today.

No disappointment here, just a super busy time of year with the holidays!

18z GFS is bringing 1 inch of snow to Harrisburg & Lancaster on Tuesday am, with closer to 3 inches for the Williamsport area.

Certainly a few things to resolve out towards NY Eve… The 0z Euro says congrats Atlanta, while the 0z GFS says congrats PA. The extent & impact of the blocking will continue to throw models fits for the at least a few more days.

Certainly a few things to resolve out towards NY Eve… The 0z Euro says congrats Atlanta, while the 0z GFS says congrats PA. The extent & impact of the blocking will continue to throw models fits for the at least a few more days.