Blizzard of 93

Saturday- still a chance of light snow on most models. Monday- Most models have the coastal too far east to impact us, but still need to track for another day or two. End of Next week to end of month- active with moisture laden storms & cold air around. The 0z Euro had 2 Winter Storm chances in this window. All of the ensembles have been ramping up snow amounts for this period. The pattern & telleconnections look to be in a good place to support our chances.

It will be fascinating to watch this unfold in the next couple of days. Hopefully the Euro takes another positive step tonight.

3k NAM is delivering a solid Advisory event to the LSV on Saturday as well At the end of its 60 hour run.

Good, hopefully the rest of 0z is similar.

18z GEFS also likes the late next week potential.

Really strong signal for this range on the 18z AI EPS for Next weekend.

18z RGEM & NAM were interested in a Saturday light event as well for us.

I’m most interested short term in the Saturday chance at this point. The coastal chance on Sunday will likely be too far to our south & east to impact most of CTP, unless we see significant changes the next few days. The 18z Euro gives many of us near 1 inch on Saturday.

After reviewing the overnight models, there is still a lot of uncertainty for the period from late tonight through Monday am. There are a few northern stream systems dropping down into our region, but impacts appear to just be minor to possibly nothing at this time. We will need to keep tracking to see if any of these minor systems over the next few days can get their act together to produce a widespread light snow event. If not, the period from later next week & beyond looks more active with Winter storm chances through the end of January.

Back to the short term, the 0z NAM is not giving up on Thursday and gives even the LSV 1 to 2 inches.

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Great post & reminder of what our seasonal averages are in the LSV. MDT averages 30 inches of snow per season. The monthly breakdown if I recall correctly is 1 inch in November, 5 in December, 9 in January, 10 in February & 5 in March. Currently MDT is sitting at 5 inches for the season to date. By the end of January, MDT needs to score about 11 inches to stay on pace for the seasonal average.

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I’ve looked at a lot of snow maps in my lifetime, but I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a 16 day map for Central PA that produced these insane amounts. I think most would be thrilled if we approached near 1 foot in the next 16 days…

Moving forward, the pattern looks active in week 2, with perhaps a chance of some moisture laden storms approaching from the south & west, instead of this never ending Clipper parade that we’ve had since mid December. There should be cold air around to tap into, so hopefully we can reel in something specific to track for later in the month.