Blizzard of 93

Thankfully Mt. Holly had a good update this evening on their discussion… KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a coastal storm Thursday and/or Friday. Impacts/details are very uncertain as these will depend on how close to the coast the low tracks. For Thursday and Friday, the upper air pattern is forecast to become more amplified across the East. The sharpening of an upper-level trough will develop a storm, however the details are much less certain at this time. The model consensus is pointing toward a storm, however whether this will become a coastal storm or one that simply goes out to sea is the forecast challenge. Some guidance suggests a significant winter storm while others are a miss. If the southern energy can remain out ahead of the northern stream energy along with a trough axis more neutral or becoming negatively tilted, then the surface low would tend to be closer to the coast. The guidance that has more of a positive tilted upper-level trough shear the system northeastward and keeps it out to sea. The closer to the coast scenario would favor more precipitation westward across our region, with the timing either Thursday or Friday. Given the wealth of uncertainty in the details, did not alter the forecast away from the NBM guidance. This continues to show low chances for now of rain and/or snow Thursday and Thursday night, however it currently is dry for Friday. If some of the guidance is correct, then PoPs would need to be added/increased for Friday. A colder air mass is forecast to be in place at the of next week and to start next weekend.

Lol, they updated it with No update. Their forecast discussion says updated 723 pm, but it must have been just a short term update. No mention in the discussion or grids of Thursday or Friday storm chances. It’s going to be a shock to some of the general population if the GFS or Euro were to verify.

Decent 18z Euro run for the 15th chance.

Yes, but I would still gladly sign for it.

Let’s go!!! I am happy you are back on here for sure!

It will be interesting to see if they start changing their tune with their update this evening.

The Euro is a miss for next weekend at this time. Nothing close this run for the second event on the 12z Euro.

The good difference in the 12z Euro vs. the 0z Euro last night shows well in the 48 hr. total precipitation through Friday early afternoon. Quite the positive jump.

The good difference in the 12z Euro vs. the 0z Euro last night shows well in the 48 hr. total precipitation through Friday early afternoon. Quite the positive jump.

Yes indeed, good step by the 12z Euro for Thursday.

Thanks, as always, I’m just showing potential chances! As @Itstrainingtime says, we can’t shovel potential… but it’s great to see we have chances to score next week.

Please if only… Lol!

12z GFS says we could go 2 for 2 ! Second storm next Sunday this run produces another Warning level chance. This snow is ONLY for the Sunday storm chance.

@paweather would only need to chase to see @mitchnick or @anotherman got the jackpot this run, lol!

12z GFS is wow… If only…please please, lol!