superjames1992

1 hour ago, Dunkman said:

Oh we're all going to be in here for this one I think!

Hey, man, you're going to have a nice storm as long as you haven't bought into some of the "historic" storm hype (maybe for the northern mountains).  Looks like a typical 6-8" snow/sleet/ice mixed bag for the Triad still to me.  A front end thump of snow that's exciting followed by an infuriating length of sleet after that that makes you wonder what could have been.  See: February 2014, December 2009, etc.... 

Wouldn't be surprised if the precip arrives earlier than expected, either, which seems common with these.  The timing with regards to the time of day seems decent for the Triad, at least, not that the sun angle is any significant overriding factor this time of year, anyways.

1 hour ago, Poimen said:

Bet it was the 700mb temps on the EURO. 

1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

 

Probably 750 mb or so, assuming it's on the same wavelength as some of the other modeling.  There's not any good (public) charts at that level aside from soundings, though, generally.  But the WB and SV clown maps won't pick up on this and show it as snow.

On the flip side, I wouldn't be surprised if BL temps verify colder than predicted as CAD at ground level often takes longer to erode than expected.

Partly sunny and around 60.  I'm wearing shorts and was driving with the windows down. 

I would just say the NAM historically has done a good job with 700-800 mb warm noses and the RAP/HRRR are dangerous to use in their longer ranges.  I would also say that, in my experience at least, we often deal with the ~750 mb warm nose before the 850 mb level warms above freezing.  But, of course, you never know what’s going to happen.  It always seems like warm noses overperform as opposed to underperform, though.

Anyways, I am getting prepapred for the rain storm down here.  Good luck everyone!  Looks like a big winter storm for many, even if a lot of it becomes IP/ZR (more likely IP with a 750 mb warm nose since there’s a lot of air under that to refreeze the droplets before hitting the ground).

1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

The plot has definitely thickened. Both of the Hi-res short range models are in lock-step with each other, (hrr and rap).

Both of those models have walhalla to pickens to travelers rest with an isothermal all snow sounding starting at midnight through about 4 or 5 am before they would transition to sleet.

From clemson to easley to DT greenville... both models have us going from rain to sleet around midnight and staying sleet for the rest of the storm. These models also are only .2 ish degree's away from being isothermal from midnight to 4am... the difference between isothermal and not for those 4 hours will be the difference between 5 or 6 inches of snow or 1 inch of sleet.

Friends don’t let friends get RAP’d or HRRR’d!

11 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I really think the wx offices are gonna need to accelerate their WSWs.  RAH has a 1am Sunday morning start for the Triad.  Seems much much quicker than that on radar.  I'd bet we see winter conditions spread across the area by 6pm tomorrow.  GFS hinted at it, radar certainly shows it, maybe it nailed the OTS quicker solution!?

There’s a lot of virga out ahead of it and the mid-levels are really dry with the CAD, so it may take awhile for it to reach the ground in the NC Piedmont (which isn’t uncommon with these storms).

2 hours ago, JoshM said:

I love this... I still don't know what kind of precip I'll get. Do I need a shovel or a generator

I know I need booze

Maybe a rain jacket and an umbrella?

22 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Say, what's the deal with people that gave up on the storm two days ago, but still continue to follow the models and post about the storm?

I gave up on this storm in May 2016. 

I know I’m late, but...

Asheville: 14”

Boone: 13”

Charlotte: 3”

Danville, VA: 10”

Durham: 5”

Hickory: 12”

Jefferson: 16”

Greensboro: 8”

GSP: 2”

 Lynchburg, VA: 8”

Mt. Mitchell State Park : 30”

Raleigh: 3”

Roanoke: 6”

Statesville: 8”

Wilkesboro: 12”

4 hours ago, southernskimmer said:

Gulf is robbing our qpf 

This setup reminds me of January 2000!

2 hours ago, burgertime said:

How in the world are we not in storm mode? 

When the DC metro gets its first flake?

17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks a lot like Feb 2014 Euro Clown map for upstate. This one puts me in the 12-16 range - will never happen. If this were my only piece of info Id go with 1-3 of slush. 

I was thinking the same thing, haha.  I remember the 12-24" clown totals for a lot of us on the eve of that storm (from the Euro and other modeling).  We ended up with 7.5" of SN/IP/ZR where I was, but I know upstate SC got majority jiffed.

I think the NAM identified a warm nose in the 700-850 mb that we ignored and then it happened, IIRC.  The SREF did a good job if I remember right.

I was looking over some 12z NAM soundings over lunch for GSO and noticed a warm nose showing up around 750 mb, so we need to watch that.  That's going to result in lot of sleet that 850 mb maps and clowns do not identify if it occurs. 

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Crazy to see a mean like this. 10 plus inches for Raleigh westward. 

 

FYI, I'm pretty sure a lot of that would be sleet/freezing rain, especially for areas on the S/E edge  (like Raleigh).  Still a significant storm, though.

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Maybe it's on crack? I have no clue since I just have accumulation maps. Very strange indeed but usually RGM is money. 

Yeah, I agree the RGEM usually does a decent job.

Regarding DPs, the DP is 36 this morning down here in the tropical panhandle of FL, BTW.

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock?

Looks like it, which is somewhat odd since Little Rock isn't under an advisory of any sort with only a chance of a little snow/sleet at the end according to NWS.

I suspect that map is showing ZR/IP as snow, but even so...

1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

Seriously though, are we still in this? I mean I'm further south than you but I still cant help but to feel it's slipping away. Guess for SWVA it's 3K NAM/ICON/RGEM vs 12K NAM and the globals?

LOL, you guys always do this in SW VA, then after that last minute NW jog end up getting 8-16" all snow while the areas south of the state line turn over to a raging sleet storm. 

Just now, weatherheels said:

Can I just get a foot, please.  Every year I ask Santa for the same thing, just a foot of snow.  Dude has never come through before.  Maybe this is the one?    I smell a 6" snow topped off with some sleet and ZR.  Hope I'm wrong, which is usually the case.  

Feels a lot like that for the Triad to me.  Usually mix with a lot of sleet in these storms.  I think 6-8" is a good call.

Or maybe I'm just vindictive and bitter since I live in Florida now and the Triad looks in line for a good storm.  I don't know!

The NAM looked pretty mixy to me.  850-700 mb thicknesses looked problematic outside the mountains.  Maybe I didn't look close enough.

34 minutes ago, Poimen said:

By 18Z Sunday the NAM has a sleet sounding over the Triad with a pronounced warm nose above 850. 

The NAM is good at spotting those and I've noticed a lot of our storms have warm noses in the 700-800 mb range that you won't pick up on the "normal" 850 mb 0C charts (or on the clown maps).  Soundings are important.

I think my call for the Triad at this point would be for 6-8" snow/sleet with freezing rain on top.  A lot of storms end up in that range in the area.

I'm betting rates will overcome all down here in Florida.  The 10-15C low-level and BL temps shouldn't be an issue with the sick dynamic cooling we're going to get!!!!! 

Take the warmest model and add 1C.  Take the driest model and slash that by 50%.  There's your forecast.

Kidding...hopefully...

I would say the NAM usually does a good job with mid-level thermals with these systems, so there's a chance it's on to something.  We've all been burned by those warm noses many times...

Of course, it's pretty far out still to really trust the NAM, but closer in it will be interesting.

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

You know, I still can't shake the feeling that SOMETHING unforeseen is going to go wrong with this storm.  An under-modeled warm nose, anomalous dry banding,  aliens from space using their death rays to zap the snow before it hits the ground.

And when it happens, this board is going to be near catatonic.

The storm is still 3-4 days out, so there’s plenty of time for this one to head south in a big way.  It’s not like we haven’t seen that song and dance before...  Not that I expect that to happen here, but there’s always that chance.

I would imagine there’s going to be some sneaky warm noses, maybe in the 750ish mb range, that are going to cause more sleet than some might expect.  That seems so common with these systems.

I know I’ve seen many storms in GSO where there would be 12-24” gaudy clown map totals for days leading up to the storm only to end up with 6-8” of snow/sleet because of that mixing.  Which is still a nice storm, mind you..

The NAM seems like it usually does a good job with the mid-level thermals, so that’s probably one to pay attention to when we get closer (<48 hours).

6 hours ago, burgertime said:

I feel your pain! But hey at least it's warm where you're at. My climate here during the winter is a constant 34 - 38 degrees with rain and wind. Biking too and from work every day. 

At least you get nice summers.  Summer is a nightmare here.  Winter must be brutal there, though.  Cold and it gets dark so early in Northern Europe, yet no snow...

Winter is pretty nice here temperature-wise, but I miss the snow.

I need to make it to Amsterdam sometime.  I haven’t yet made it to any of the Benelux countries for some reason, though I’ve been in every adjacent country.

I know you’ve been there for awhile, but are you there permanently or will you be moving back at some point?

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Oh my god, I see Mr. it will snow but not stick on the ground guy is back

But soil temps!  And the Gulf is warm! 

But yeah, it’s fairly chilly in the leadup to this one and this is nearly the perfect time of year with regards to the sun angle, so it shouldn’t have much trouble sticking, especially with the higher rates that look likely.