superjames1992

15 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

That is the 5th run in a row of the NAM with double digits for Durham on the Kuchera maps. 

We’re playing with fire here, but verbatim we got destroyed on the Happy Hour NAM.  I’m sweating sleet pellets, though.

The Wake County gradient depicted was classic and painful for those down there, though.

On 1/3/2020 at 5:12 PM, bluewave said:

2nd warmest year for the Arctic behind 2016.

 

I'm surprised 2012 isn't higher.

Jammin’ January is back on!!l. Maybe.

We are running above the 2010s average for sea ice extent right now (above all years this decade except 2011 and 2014, from what I can tell), which is encouraging after the slow start to the refreezing season.  I don’t think it much matters for next summer’s melt, but it sure beats still being at the second lowest extent on record, like we were at minimum this summer.  Of course, 2011 was followed up by the record-setting 2012 melt, so it may not mean much, as I said.

Fab Feb will save us.

Nice warm day today.  Reminded me of a normal winter day in Florida.  Snow, what's that??? 

No need to freak out.  It’s mid-December.  It’s fairly rare most of us get snow until January.

Now if we’re still sitting here like this when the calendar is near to flipping to February, it’s time to start panicking, although even that’s technically not too late.

I think the GGEM typically overdoes low level cold.  Or at least it used to.

On 12/4/2019 at 2:18 PM, Waiting on snow said:

Time to get this b***h jumping again since the fantasy storms are showing up!

 Glad to be back for the heartbreak and broken promises after three winters in Florida. 

49/mostly cloudy.

19 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

I know you werent here last year James so I will remind you we banked more than this forecast in one single event....in December......drops mic.....

I'm underwhelmed.  Tell me 20"+ for the triad and I might perk up.  

Haha, I know, but I haven’t seen more than a dusting of snow since 2017, and that was just because I was on vacation.  I’m desperate. 

On 11/26/2019 at 7:19 PM, BIG FROSTY said:

Van says, Best be getting winter gear ready................................................

 

Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV

Yesterday at 6:40 PM · 

Are you ready for winter and snow?

For those of you interested, I have finalized my Snowfall Outlook for 2019-20.
Posted Nov. 25, 2019
FEEL FREE TO SHARE

Forecasting winter weather months in advance is far from an exact science. Still, many want to know what we (meteorologists) think. I do try to put some science behind my seasonal guesses.

The most popular sources for helping us predict long range weather patterns is to study the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The water temperatures in the eastern pacific near the equator plays a big role in weather patters.

Many people know about the El Nino (warmer water) and La Nina (cooler water) in this part of the Pacific. This impacts our precipitation and temperatures. When neither are present it is a LA NADA year. Neutral.

This year we are in a La Nada pattern. Given that, I looked at our snowfall in La Nada years. Since 1950, there have been 21 years that were La Nada. Average snowfall for the Piedmont-Triad is 8.9" in a La Nada year. Our most recent 30 year normal for snowfall done by decade (1981-2010) is 7.5" Our 105 year average is 8.5". So La Nada is above both of these.

In addition, I see December being colder than normal, January normal and February again being colder and then there is always March with big swings.

Given all of the above, La Nada, colder than normal winter temperatures, I have bumped snowfall projections up by 10-20% above normal.

Here in the Triad, our winter total would be close to 10" with closer to 15" on the northern side. and 6-8 over our southernmost counties. Mountains see a big range due to elevation change, but a general 20-40 inches with areas above 4000 feet seeing more than 40 inches.

I will have the complete winter outlook next week.

I would cash out with this...

7 hours ago, Tacoma said:

wow, this isn't like the old days, I keep looking to see what the future may look like from the computers but no one is chiming in with anything, even if its eye candy some discussion is better than none.  

It's only mid-November.

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Ended up with a nice rain event (the liquid over performed..). As of 2:51 RDU received .93". 

...but you know that won't happen when the dominant P-type is snow. 

I didn't notice any snow here though I was in meetings a lot of this afternoon.  Good to get a bust in early so the subsequent, more meaningful busts later this winter will be less painful.

Rain/snow is officially in the forecast here after 4 PM.  Neat.  I hope to see some flakes.

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Usually no but it’s happened before. 11/11/13 is my example. I think we’ll see some flakes in my part of Durham County but hey, flakes in November is a win anytime. 

I think this event in 2003 was also a case of the exception.  I recall it being in the 70s the day before but it was snowing pretty good by mid morning the following day.  We got a pretty solid coating on grassy surfaces.  Of course, it warmed up to 40 by the afternoon and it all melted, but it was neat.  I was in Greensboro.

I think I might remember the 2013 event you refer to, as well.  I recall it being in the 60s early in the day in Greensboro, but by early evening flakes were flying.  It was a sloppy mess, though, and didn’t last long and never stuck, though.

Anyways, I would definitely think flakes tomorrow are very possible, I just think seeing accumulating snow would take a near miracle, despite what the clown maps might say.

—

On another note, I suppose I need to re-up my WeatherBell subscription now that I live in a place that actually gets snow again.

Cold air usually doesn't come as fast as the models show in these setups.  I don't have any scientific evidence to back this up, but that has been my experience.  Maybe we'll see a miracle.

I don’t like our chances with this setup.  And even if we did see flakes, they will be meaningless flurries.  Then again, I haven’t seen any flakes fall from the sky since our historic dusting of snow in Tallahassee in January 2018, so I better take what I can get, LOL.

That really isn't a LP track we want to see outside the mountains.  We want it more offshore.  Running inland isn't going to work.

And that it's November and not mid-January certainly doesn't do us any favors, either.

2 hours ago, Solak said:

12z - the cold is 12 degrees warmer (35), and it's all rain (0.58") for RDU.

Winter cancel.

3 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Obviously book it. Snow I 40 north? Mix 77 west? You know it's true.

I am going to be sad when GSO gets a yuuuge winter this year while I don't get much.  I wish I still lived there during wintertime, at least.

Well, MBY got 11" last December, but that didn't help considering I lived in tropical Florida then....

Since I live 15 miles NW of KRDU, I plan on scaling up any model output snow totals for KRDU by 250% IMBY.  What could go wrong?

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

What's everybody's take. You rather have a front loaded winter and take your chances on the back end or have a crappy warm pattern front end and loaded back end? For me I'd rather take front and roll the dice on back end. 

The sun angle is better this time of year.  Haha.

I saw a coating of snow on the ground in some areas high in the Great Smoky Mountains this weekend where I was hiking.  Mostly on northerly facing slopes above 5,000-6,000 ft., it seemed.