CT Valley Snowman

Euro Ensembles and Op locked in the day of the event. This model suite just took a massive hit with this storm.

The Rgem snow map west of ORH-Tolland is brutally low. This has honestly been my go-to model outside of the Euro in many events. When is the last time it was this far off the day of an event?

Im totally stunned at the model variance. Nervous feeling in the pit of my stomach.

any general ideas of QPF on the RGEM?

any more details on the rgem?

sorry it's probably me that's melting down the most, I just need to take a step back and see how it unfolds

honestly I wouldn't be shocked if it setup right on the valley floor, subsidence downsloping and shadowing FTL

call me Debby downer but I've seen it too many times in this area

that sucker hole on the NAM better be wrong

This was always a central and eastern SNE special.

not really,the euro is an all of southern New England special. 2 inches of QPF right to the New York border.

the nam needs to hold ground and the other models need to tick slightly west or its going to turn into a central and eastern New England special.

is anyone concerned that it still corrected somewhat northeast and that the trend may continue?not to be a Debbie Downer it looks like an absolutely beautiful run I just want to make sure it can hold.

anywhere between the berks and kevin will get in the good band euro tics east other models come west a bit

and I really hope you're right, RGEM and GFS do not look like they want to push west at all.

it looks like there was another dual low pressure on the

Gem at hour 24, without an nice clean and early enough capture ,Western New England could be toast.

honest assessment Mets please, how concerned should we be from the Connecticut River Valley points west?

Wow Western New England is really up in the air right now!!!

I'm just starting to familiarize myself with sref, at what time does the next set come out?

Sounds good to me. Everyone is going to get smoked and elevation there is good. The deformation band is still an unsettled matter in my mind but that may be a nowcast situation.

http://i1163.photobucket.com/albums/q560/

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Taunton Disco talks about how banding can pivot further west in intense cyclones. It could be right but I think it could tick west if that same track holds.

Yeah, but their forecast maps have to be plastered all over social media by now.

starting at 12 to 24 would have been better than 20-30 down there.

Wondering if we converge on a Feb 2006 type placement on the Deform band?

taking a closer look at the RGEM , that deformation banding was definitely a little heavier and a tic west of the previous run. The overall track looks almost identical.

Lock it in boys. Time for the hammer.

GFS ticks NW. Beautiful run.

Gfs looks like its a tick NW at 24 and pounding.

Thundersnow looks like a decent bet under the heaviest banding.