Orangeburgwx

Eye looks ragged, the storm size is about to explode after its EWRC... Still moving due west atm based off both the IR and visual aids

3 minutes ago, BFF said:

Levi's site is crawling but it is out to 48 on the Euro.

And a tick south of 0z

Just now, bigshaq00 said:

New to weather, so what could the triangle see from this storm. Could we see hurricane force winds or tropical force winds? Wind?  

How about everything

That dropscond though.... 

2 minutes ago, Solak said:

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

Notice the doubled forward speed and the flatter track compared to 5am

Back in a bit, gonna see if I can stock up just in case ... Wish me luck

2 minutes ago, lj0109 said:

Hello pinhole eye...

Hugo redux, it isn't turning yet

Finally correcting to the EURO

27 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Bluewave or Typhoon or anyone else let me ask you or anyone a question if I may , the reason that the Hurricanes over the last 50 years all shifted North eventually and that none have hit the coast ( regardless of those storms setups ) is because at this time of year the Bermuda Highs are NOW usually moving West To East and allow storms to escape and head north,,,,,am I wrong ? I understand that the Ridge is "historical" and "theres a first time for everything" but to say the Ridge no matter how strong it appears right now can't move, weaken or shift EAST as it has done in the past and as it usually does this time of year would be a mistake , especially that there is still time (granted not a lot but its not hours its a day or so if not more ) again I am new to all this and still learning. Thanks guys for any replies

You are not wrong (that is what drove the initial wave of shear that tore Florence apart), but there is another high pushing southeast from Canada that is building and will basically merge with the Bermuda High. That will strengthen it, and force Florence south, hope this explaination helps

3 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said:

After 36 hours, the most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in the 06Z GFS.  However, that run appears to be an outlier from the rest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight westward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids.

That speaks a lot right there...

Location: 24.5°N 54.3°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

this is heading right for me

6 minutes ago, Solak said:

Recon is in the outer fringes of Florence now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

It is just upper level sampling... Said so on TWC

7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Julian I respect you and your posts are always informative. I realize that the HIGH to the North of Florence is " appearing " strong and it appears that it will steer Florence due west. That said I don't know how anyone can discount the history ? I know many of you guys deal with the science of all this ( stuff which I am learning but know little about ) but I cannot see how anyone disregards the History ? I also understand that those previous storms did not have something STRONG steering them West but maybe the High here now is overdone ? I think theres still time for much of this to change and absolutes are impossible ,,,,maybe Im wrong thanks again for your reply it is appreciated 

Since you want to talk about history...

This is the strongest (or damn well near it) ridge IN HISTORY for this time of year, all those storms in the past have not had this kind of set up, so you are WITNESSING history 

EURO is hellbent on a Hugo repeat (need the rain... But damn those winds)

15 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Wouldn't get locked onto one model just yet; during Irma GFS and Euro had two different out comes; both ended up off with their tracks and Ukie end up nailing the track.

Where is Ukie heading right now?

8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

   I feel like Frankenstein today with all my aches and pains from protesting muscles      

 

I've really missed chatting with you all      

 

  

Welcome back

Back to back runs of the EURO with a Hugo redux... It has its' target now the GFS is the chaser,other models are starting to side with the EURO so watch the GFS cave with a Cat 5 Hugo track

27 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Yep the latest Ukie has it south of Charleston now at 144,close to the GA border.It's also pushing the 594dm death ridge further west covering all of VA and northern N Carolina then too

It's not making a hard right if that's there in my opinion.

What wind speed at landfall?

1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

GFS looks unchanged 

No, it's a bit slower

I would not mind taking the hit for everyone on this board (have never been in a hurricane)

5am: W at 275 degrees, 25.1N

11am: W at 270 degrees, 25.0N

Better watch that trend 

Oh boy here we go... She's starting to look healthier on the IR with a possible eyewalk forming 

Move 150 miles south, drop the mb by 40, and I will be happy

2 hours ago, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb:

How much below normal temp is that darkest blue?

Calling it now, Hugo redux