WinterWolf

Just now, BristowWx said:

Is there that much shear out there?  Can’t be SSTs..so many factors to consider.  

SST are great for development where it is.  Or perhaps she’s just shot/peaked as others have said, and it’s degrading at this point.  

Still so much we just don’t know about these systems that make them so difficult to forecast...proof positive by the way it’s degrading currently.  This certainly wasn’t forecast as recently as yesterday.    

Agree with Snowgoose....this is probably weaker than it’s current estimate at 8:00 pm.  

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Was not expecting the strong sheared look.  A week ago Florence rapidly deepened to a cat4 in a much worse environment. 

Models still really aren't that good at predicting how shear will effect a system.  If this keeps up, it will look like Irene at landfall  945mb Cat1.

There wasn’t supposed to be any shear when it came into this area(at least not any that would disrupt the system at least), conditions looked very very good for strengthening/or at least maintaining it.  So the modeling a couple days ago didn’t even foresee this shear issue on the system.  

1 hour ago, adiabatic13 said:

Tonight's burst of deep convection should rebuild a solid eyewall one last time prior to shelf water disrupting Flo's heat engine; I'm going out on a limb and will forecast Cat 4 for a few dropsondes tomorrow morning...and the unmodeled moderate shear appears to be relaxing as well.

Isn't it always amazing how there always seems to be that unmodeled fly in the ointment with all types of storm systems....so many moving parts to take into account...surprises always abound.

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Eagle Lake possibly.

Im staying on Long lake.  Rode across Eagle Lake today.   There is no Van Buren Lake that I know of??  And I’m very familiar with the area. Van Buren cove on Long lake..but no Van Buren lake.

3 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Eat at Lakeview.  You on Van Buren Lake?  Say hello to the Cyrs and Dionnes.

There is no Van Buren lake.  You mean Long lake?  

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm heading back to Eustis/Jackman saturday.

Nice!!

Already put on 350, hoping for another 150 for tmrw before the snow sets in up here in the evening.  

This is gonba extend the season even longer up here, and for Jackman/Eustis as well!

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Stay NW or down towards Ashland/Mili, PI and CAR won't see as much with this one.

In St Agatha, 6-12 inches forecast For here.

same for at home in my town in CT.  So I’ll probably  see the same here, as at home.   

Just now, dryslot said:

Grab a calculator.........

In the county for this one.

This is a kind of situation where you check back here and there over the weekend, just to see if anything has shifted significantly, instead of looking at each run of the major models.  I wouldn't be investing much time in this, it's almost definitely an Ocean Storm.

Very Fluid and evolving situation for sure...interesting.  Lots of "What if's"  left to be answered.

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS is OTS. If that trough coming through the lakes days 6-8 is true, then it's game over.

6-8 days out is an eternity away....but I'm sure something saves the area from any direct impacts...so who knows at this early juncture..lots of factors at play for sure.  One thing is for sure, the models will change a lot going forward.

2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. 

I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had.....

Great post!  I agree on both points....and was thinking the same thing.  The monitoring and technology has improved Vastly since the 50's, 60's, and 70's.   Which in my opinion would make a huge difference in the results.

And Jose is falling apart, and FAST.

Not only powerful...but BIG in size!!  Very ominous looking to say the least! 

Guys, what time do you think the rain starts tomorrow in Central CT???  Late afternoon?  Noon??  

Have a big event at school, and wondering if we get it in???  

Or do we postpone til Friday??  But Friday isn't looking to good either in the morning????

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure on the PM thing... I don't normally use that feature in recent years on this forum.. There may have been tech changes and so forth with the interface that I am unfamiliar.  It's really about inheriting previous user-ship into a completely different web/social media outlet, to which I am apart.   So...not sure what to tell you on the PM. 

Thanks on the DG circuitry but...honestly, why?   I mean... I have a circle of bros and we play from time to time but we're all 30s and 40s year-olds with families and lives at this point; we don't get out that often anymore, and it's not really devoted hobby really.  It's a fun activity/sport, sure.   More power to DGers in CT though!  

Ok that's cool.  

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Tele's from the GEF camp actually signal SOMEthing different sets in by the 20th, too - 

Tip, tried to private message you about a guy who is a big Disc Golf player here in CT. I told him I knew a guy on my weather forum who loves Disc Golf!  But it says you can't receive PM'S ??

 If you're interested in contacting this guy about the game, let me know.  And maybe I can give you his info, if you're interested.

WinterWolf. 

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

1976 and 2002, but 2 weeks later so 3-4F hotter?  (Easter Sunday 1976 was mid-90s NYC to BOS as we headed from NNJ toward Maine, and we thought we were going to fry the engine on our Beetle - air-cooling isn't that great in that kind of heat.  What a relief to reach northern Maine with temp 60 and still some snow piles.)

Why useless? Beach or open pools 

That's fine if swimming in 50F water is your thing.  (And up here, Long Lake in Belgrade still has ice in its north cove.)  Big early heat usually includes stiff breezes and low humidity, accompanied by brush fires.

And Long Lake in Sinclair and St. Agatha still has Ice on much of the lake lol!!