WinterWolf

Agreed…99% of the time that is true…every once in a while it’ll surprise us, but take the under most every time.

Lots to figure out with that at a week out.. we track.

Ha ha pretty funny.

So what was T Giving 1950…a screaming So’Easter?

But it’s your gut telling you it’s not gonna be a good winter…you say you’re not feeling g it. Sane as us saying we are. It’s a different set up and year already…you can see it. Sure, we’ll mild up, and rain at times. But it’s got a different vibe.

Reached 81 last early November here.

It’s much different than last year already. No guarantees obviously, but this November is nothing at all like last year. Modeling is much different too. We will do better than last year in SNE. Take that to the bank. How much better to be determined.

Oh, I don’t think we will go wire to wire either, wasn’t meaning that, as I said and agree, we will mild up somewhat, which is usually the case anyway. The calls of torch from 3-4 weeks out in time though are a little much. As you said…duration and intensity TBD.

We don’t know that just yet…but some milder weather is likely, which is very common. We thought a couple weeks ago that November was going to be warm….that has not happened as many thought and said in late October. And this needs to be admitted to by the torch sayers about November.

We tried to tell ‘em…but they wouldn’t listen. Torch Torch Torch is all some know, and push. Sad really.

Another solid freeze this morning…fake or not, it’s a good November in that regard. We take.

Overly amped bias of the Euro at work…?

Oh no..completely understood.

Thanks. Agreed.

So did November that year…a nice event in November that year shortly after Election Day in ‘12.

Ya it’s fallen from grace big time…but When we say ECMWF, do we also mean the Eiro ensembles(EPS) as well?

Which became your January blizzard which kicked off the monster 15 season at the end of January…especially for eastern areas.

Great points. I have been doing just that..grain of salt for sure, especially more than 10-12 days out.

At least there is some weather it seems to track going forward…we take.

Lol that’s what happens when we haven’t had any weather in a while…we grasp at anything that looks remotely exciting.

You mean 11/18 right?

Ya..Thanksgiving was supposed to be a torch too….lol. Everything’s a torch I guess.

Fabulous post. And well explained/easy to understand for some of us laymen. Thank you.

Agreed.

At the same time, We can’t expect wall to wall constant cold from mid/late November through the end of March either…there will be relaxation and mild ups where we live in SNE, especially early on. I’ll gladly take some good cold starting next week for 8-10 days, with a shot at some wintry precip, and then a warm up after that; especially if we reload for mid to later December when we start to enter our climatological wheelhouse . That’s a decent trade off to start us out here in SNE imo. And that December period isn’t carved in stone either, just like T Giving was supposedly looking nice and mild a week or two ago…not gonna happen now cuz things change.