dilly84

Perfect snowfall here. Movie-like. Have about an inch and a half so far in about 2hrs. Sure makes the Christmas lights look nice.

So my grade for the winter, is going to be a D. The expectation followed by the lack of major storms. The only reason I'm not going with an F is due to the deform bands we had in January with the system. Hopefully next winter is our winter. 

See y'all next November, barring major severe outbreak. Enjoy your spring and summer!

Yea, I'm over this cold. Sick that we get only 2" of snow prior when its actually overcoming the sun angle

30 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I’m thinking Coating to 2” covers it for the state now.  Euro has been dethroned the last few weeks.  Been way off and beaten by the gfs on several systems. 

Oh yea, it's been bad. It's consistently put out big systems only to fold later on. Not too sure what's going on with the euro. Never seen it so bad, but would say it's been one of the worst this year. ICON has had better accuracy lol

20 hours ago, OHweather said:

 

Bravery right here. I'd think if someone gets 3" anywhere in Ohio will be lucky at this point. Looks like a general 1 to maybe 2 in spots... for now... still trending south. Fv3 is a miss altogether now with the exception of extreme southern Ohio. Crazy how poorly this trended. May wanna consider remaking your map, Jim.

Well all models in agreement now (await ukie and euro) that Ohio looking at 1-3" general accums. 

12z nam, and 3k nam both 1-2" compared to last nights 0z of 3-6"

No reason to believe the GFS will change but we'll see. I'd guess this will be a big bowl of nothing in the end. Certainly doesnt look good if you thought this system would be something.

Womp womp. Outside of any major shifts, the euro sits alone and even it is folding to the other models now showing only a marginal snow.. System looks to be south. Central Ohio may see 1 or 2 inches and parts of southern Ohio 3 to maybe 5" according to models now. See what 12z does before tossing in the towel, but it's becoming evident that a towel tossing is imminent lol.

Dayton has to be rocking right now 50dbz high chance of thundersnow there.

Nam and hrrr still looks good

12 minutes ago, OHweather said:

In terms of warnings it is debatable.  There is no where near the required 80% confidence in 6”+ occurring in any given spot (even if it’s possible, it’s not that confident)...but based on impacts an argument could be made that several counties near I-70 particularly near/E/NE of Franklin could be upgraded on an impact based basis.  Even that is a little flimsy as confidence still isn’t great, though at this point most signs are pointing towards that area getting hit reasonably hard for a few hours. 

Yea, the criteria is what it is, but I'd have to think NWS can also issue one if the impact will be great enough. I know I'll be up all night to see what happens.

I'm blown away that no WSWs have been put up. The fact that some areas could see 3" an hour rates with tomorrow being a weekday, and the impact that would have is crazy to me that they'd all stick with an advisory

21 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

TT is a hot mess when it comes to mixed precip types and snow totals. If this system gives Newark a foot of snow I'll ride up to Apple Valley on my Unicorn and buy you dinner.

(I secretly hope its right!)

Well it has 3k NAM with what looks like up to 3" an hour rates. Wouldn't take much at that pace to get a lot of snow. Patiently watching the radar. 

10 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Loving the 00z HRRR for MBY. Nearly 6".

However, this kind of setup has huge bust potential for my neck of the woods. Fingers crossed!

Nam sticking with a foot lol

I think it may be time to start taking the NAM seriously here... Not very often is greatly off base this close.

Ya know, I've learnt over time never doubt the NAM short range.

Let's bring on spring. Pattern sucks and I couldn't care less about March snows. Itll just melt in a day. Unless its 2 feet, I'd rather it just torch. It's quite comical how wrong every winter outlook was for here. I dont even think we're gonna reach average lol

Took 10 minutes here for the roads to be covered and icy.

Well the gem drops 7" of snow through Sunday night then changes to rain. Wouldn't be surprised at that outcome with this winter lol.

3 hours ago, jbcmh81 said:

Hancock where?

I'd assume Michigan 

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

I didn't know we had a storm to track lol.

The one that was posted about above lol

So much for tracking that storm lol. Died as quick as it showed up.

6 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

I remember you doing that and asking if anyone wanted to come with you. You posted some pretty cool pics. 

Yea was fun aside the getting pulled over in Youngstown on our way, forgot to renew my license was forced to wait til 8am when the bmv opened to renew it and was 5hrs behind. Had to drive in it, was nuts.

41 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Child’s play to the Blizzard of ‘96 in Philly!  I was fortunate to experience both.

Childsplay to the Boston blizzard of 2013 as well, but was still impressive. Chased the 2013 storm. Stayed in Worcester Mass. Got like 33" of snow and 85 mph winds. Was wild.

33 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Forecast sounding for tomorrow morning suggest a brief period with a robust and very deep DGZ (~90% RH, marginal omega values, GFS looks almost identical but more saturation).  20:1 seems reasonable but I wouldn't rule out somewhere seeing as high as 30:1.  I can definitely see this clipper surprising some people Friday morning. 

That's what I was just looking at. Didnt read the forum before posting lol. I was thinking the same. I'd guess 20:1 average but at 9° would be very easy to get higher ratios.