Flying MXZ

I'll take that Euro run!

7 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

I’m really baffled by how the models have been so consistent on showing such a rare track from +/-5 days out.  Curious to see if it verifies. 

In the aforementioned New England thread, the Mets there were talking about how ALL the analogs were way to the east of the current models.  And all agreed that with the starting 500mb maps (or something like that) they would bet on a typical storm track.  But with all the models showing what they are, they were thinking this west track is the most likely outcome.

4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

HeWhoShallNotBeNamed is usually pretty good with snowstorm forecasts and discusssions.  I love it when he gets emotional and digs into a position that busts. 

 

Yea, he can be........entertaining. 

37 minutes ago, yankees102110 said:

Off topic but great username Flying MXZ. I have a 98 MXZ 440 fanner, it’s my favorite sled that I own. I’m partial to the older sleds. I had a 2013 F570 but was not a fan of the rider forward position. Now I have the MXZ and a 02 supersport but I prefer the MXZ. 

I've had a couple, starting with a 96.5 MXZ670.  Loved that sled in it's time.  Now ride Renegades but I have that name at several places so I have no desire to change it. 

The first map I think I've seen.  He's definitely more of a mid-atlantic forecaster, but I'll take my 6"-10" in our snowhole.

https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/1st-guess-snow-map-for-jan-16-17-tenn-valley-east-coast-winter-storm-d31a02503f1b

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Quite a few complete misses for Buffalo on GEFS, definitely went further SE then 12z.

 

Damn. Pretty much every one good here, while the non ensembles show us with dry slot issues. 

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I can't believe Dolphins fired their coach, they went 8-1 in last 9 games.

 

Yea, wtf?  It's hard being a Dolphin fan recently.

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Whatever town is just northeast of that lake has been getting pounded for a few hours already

"That lake" is the Redfield Reservoir.  Actually Salmon River Reservoir but everyone refers to it as the Redfield Res.  Easy way to locate things up there.

Same “tea kettle” stuff down here this morning. Low of -0.2°. About 4” yesterday, first time I’ve plowed this winter!

3” of snow down here today. Not all that much, but the first time I had to plow this winter!

1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

Somehow I got an inch of snow overnight. 

About 1/2" down here.  At least it's white!

5 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Euro looks a tad nw of 12z, and definitely wetter. Big hit from NE PA to interior NE.

Looks alright I guess.  I'm just happy to have frost back in the ground this morning.  I was around Tug Hill the past couple days, and while it was white there it was sad how little snow there was.

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Aren't people still mowing this year? 

I actually mowed a little area on Monday.  Fixed the mower and one area that was too wet to mow last time was dried up and bugging me.  The area was still snow (dusting) covered, but grass was cut!

Snow flurries currently!

Literally 32.1 rain all afternoon. But the white pines are getting a glaze of ice so it’s a hair colder just off the surface. 

12 hours ago, Flying MXZ said:

Not excited here. It’ll probably be a nice snow to start, but I don’t expect much here. 

Never mind. Started as sleet. This is why I don’t forecast. 

Not excited here. It’ll probably be a nice snow to start, but I don’t expect much here. 

7 minutes ago, cny rider said:

I just got back from a glorious bicycle ride.

If it’s not going to snow this isn’t a bad way to be.

 

My lunchtime walk was in jeans and a tshirt.  

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I’m so sad about last night. So much went wrong but the weather dictated this game. That missed fg lost us the game among other things. We had some intense squalls move through pregaming. 

The Bills d-line got their asses kicked. They’ll need to straighten that out to win any meaningful games. 

Last winter was great around here.  I guess I'm glad I live 2.5 hours from Syracuse.  Hard to believe it was that different.

48 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Alright, crunched some numbers to see how Novembers snow stats have fared in the ROC since the year 2000.

2000    7.3
2001    0.1
2002    16.9
2003    5.4
2004    1.9
2005    7.8
2006    0.5
2007    1.7
2008    11
2009    0.1
2010    0.4
2011    0.3
2012    0.8
2013    13.5
2014    9.1
2015    1.2
2016    15
2017    2.6
2018    17.4
2019    17.8
2020    1.2
2021    3.6
Average    6.2"

If we remove the 5 somewhat outlier years with greater than 13" of snow, the average falls to 3.1" which puts 2021 pretty close to on par with the typical year.  I didnt realize the back to back big Novembers of 2018 and 2019 were so anomalous now that I see a larger data set.  
 

I almost posted that I thought the average for November was a bit misleading as it is probably a mix of great years, and years with next to nothing.  And it sure appears that way based on your chart.  I'm not doing the standard deviation or anything, but looking at the numbers, it appears maybe 3 out of 22 years can be considered near average.  

12 hours ago, champy said:

I enjoyed the mood snows all day today. While it didn't add up to much, just walking outside while it snowed quietly all day was really pleasant. Some people on this forum need to remember to get outside and actually enjoy this thing we're talking about on here. It was a pleasant winter day out there with constant snow! Not bad for November...

The amount of complaining recently about not getting feet of snow in November is, um, interesting.  I know I've enjoyed the past several days, with maybe 3" total snowfall.  

2 hours ago, cny rider said:

What limits are you experiencing?

Honest question.

I go wherever I want, whenever I want.  I can mask if I want, and not mask when I want.  Except for work where I am stuck with a mask (healthcare).

My life is pretty normal and has been for over a year.

 

I like this post, and I agree about most of my life being normal, minus a mask in some places.  But there is one thing that is still driving me crazy.  School BS rules.  It appears that it is up to the individual school, but a lot of schools will have limited spectators for winter sports.  I've heard from one school with no limits (just wear masks), our school only allowing 2 or 4 (not decided yet) spectators per player to another school allowing only "home" spectators.  Why the different rules based on how afraid the superintendent is afraid of COVID?  From what I hear the DOH is setting no limits.  So 20,000 can watch the Nets or Knicks, but most of my family can't watch my kids!

Nice snowy morning here down south.  About 2" possible, but only sticking in the hills right now.

32 minutes ago, cny rider said:

The Bills were so putrid today nobody can bear to even speak of it here LOL.

Time to start hitting the panic button, or just a bump in the road?

On 11/12/2021 at 8:37 AM, Flying MXZ said:

Agreed.  The prosecution either did a terrible job here, or he shouldn't have been brought up on murder charges.  From what I've seen, every time he fired was in self defense.  But he had no business being there in the first place.

 

Duff's wings were excellent!  Crispy, which is the way to make them.

Not guilty.