The 4 Seasons
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Everything posted by The 4 Seasons
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GFS looks like mainly noise, very similar. A tick west but still great for most. -
Reggie ticked a noticeable bit SE at 6z. Maybe 10-15 mi SE move
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NAMs are getting there, more amped and west..shocker
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Weird ranges again but the color range is 8-12
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No surprise aly going 8-12 in Litchfield cty
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Question for those in the know. Does this site still work for getting the rgem early? It has an option for using the regional but only for 0-24 hours but I can't seem to change that. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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The NAM had a massive shift on the 12Z run for 12/20 giving warning snowfall for CT and adv level snow back to NYC...in 0-6HR range. Which was obviously wrong and didn't happen. But inside of 6 hours was something i've never seen before. I don't trust that model at any range for any storm pretty much ever. That said im pretty much in line with what Will said. GEM settling east and EC coming NW, a track inside the BM to ACK
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I dont know what the deal is with uptons new map. looks like updated graphics but the ranges...
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i wouldn't be surprised, right now we went with 4-8 locally up to 10 which i remember is what you said yesterday, thats where we're at.
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welcome to my world, even NYC has more than me. I think we will do well this system. It was only 2 days ago, this thing was out to Bermuda and a complete whiff on almost every model, looked like a lost cause perhaps. Even the amped GEM, didnt even have a storm on 12Z Tuesday, it wasn't until 00Z it latched on to something
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thats insane. i was just looking at the big storm on Feb 13th 2024 and your area barely got 3-4" and the same with previous Jan storm. So you must have been at what like 13" for the season ish?
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jesus i didnt even pick up on that. Deleted below to not clog up thread. we figured it out..
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For a second there i thought you said southern Tolland county. that would have made more sense if you were tryin to make a joke about adding a circle and reposting it.
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It's actually pretty similar, for this range, id call that noise at the surface. Really the past 4 cycles have been pretty darn similar...being very stubborn with that far western amped track.
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yeah gfs is probably the perfect solution so far for CT. Just beautiful. Only 10-12 runs to go
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Just finished a tri-state season to date snowfall map if anyones interested. Totals are from COOP sites, here, and the 6 climo sites. Ill probably do any update in Feb and March.
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Exactly my thoughts. Kuchera is awful and really should never be used. Sometimes it'll align with what i'm thinking or what the forecast might be but at that point it might just be confirmation bias saying the Kuchera was good this time or its good for "x" event.
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18Z GEM? We pullin' out models from the woodwork with this one
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Comparing the 12z nam to the rgem was pretty hilarious. Nam doesn't even have a clue, esp at clown range
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So the Max Temp in Profile option in bufkit is just Kuchera? And then theres Cobb05 and Cobb11 which i still dont know which is the better to use and what the difference is.
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Safe to say the GEFS is by far the best run yet. A very obvious trend NW each run. Yesterday it had almost 0 members giving SNE any QPF, its not like there was even a spread. As far as i know the GEM was the only model really amped yesterday. Edit: to add the 500mb trend on the GEFS.
