The 4 Seasons

HERPES gone wild

BOX cut totals a bit, now more realistic with widespread 3-4 rather than 4-6. ALY pretty much cancelled the storm, they really slashed totals less than 1/4 of what it was.

Clown map. I'll take my 6.0" of digital snow

18Z GFS actually ticked up a bit on the qpf side. Soundings still look fugly tho.

Where is he, still at work?

BOX PM UPDATE: Both ensemble data sets from the EC and GFS including deterministic guidance from the NAM/HREF/GFS/EC suggest heaviest qpf will be confined to the south coast of MA/RI/CT. Ensembles offering 0.25 to 0.33 in this area and obviously deterministic guidance higher with 12z NAM showing a stripe of 0.75+ inches from Cape Cod to MVY. 12z HREF ends 12z Wed but also has some members supporting higher qpf 06z-12z Wed. In fact the 12z ECENS has over 30 of its 50 members supporting at least 2 inches of snow for much CT/RI and MA! At this model time range (42+ hrs) typical model error for a frontal boundary is probably in the +/- 50-100 miles range. Thus this heavier qpf band could shift and verify offshore but also could shift inland to perhaps HFD-ORH-BOS. So there remains a range of possibilities. Tracing back the short wave that will enter the Great Lakes early Wed that will back the mid level flow across southern New England and impact our forecast, this feature traces back to the Arctic circle this afternoon. Obviously this is a data sparse area so expecting models to initialize this feature differently/better once it reaches lower latitudes with more data. Typically these arctic short waves verify stronger/more robust given poor model initialization at higher latitudes in data sparse regions. In addition this approaching arctic short wave will be accompanied by an anomalous upper level jet streak across northern New England into southern Quebec Tue ngt/Wed with speeds of 180+ kts! Thus a lot of jet dynamics to watch unfold. So at this early stage our preliminary snowfall forecast could range as little as a coating to an inch (our 10% percentile snow forecast) to possibly 2-4 inches (50% percentile snow forecast) if arctic short wave verifies stronger with mid level flow backing more to the SSW and with longer duration yielding higher qpf. Also can`t completely dismiss the more extreme NAM/HREF solution with 4+ inches, albeit a low prob but within the envelope of solutions. Nevertheless will need to watch this portion of the forecast given its potential impact to the Wed morning commute. @weatherwiz ha! Not sure why they are talking about NAM as the extreme solution when it appears to be on the lighter side of the envelope atm, at least comparing it to GEM/RGEM/UKMET.

RGEM still looks like a good hit, this is all i have to go off so far thats updated. Looks like it'll be a little toned down from 12Z but still probably .3-.5 qpf for most i would guess. Here's the link. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

This isn't looking good but i still think a low end advisory snowfall is still in the cards for some.

I'll await the entire 18Z suite and make a first call map. We still have the 00Z runs overnight 6Z, 12Z tomorrow 18Z tomorrow and 00Z tomorrow night before anything starts anywhere.

Never said or impied they were. The last forecast was 7:15AM so they didn't get a chance to see any of the 12Z runs yet. The PM shift, this map, would be based off the entire 12Z suite probably not taking into account the 18Z NAM at all.

aaaand NWS OKX bumps up ???

Well overall i guess its better than the 12Z run but not good.

Not that i give it much weight but NAM is ugly. Literally yesterday it had warning snows now it's like what snow? Unreal, that model.

Not what you want to see.

NAM looks very dry so far.

NAM 12Z, is not nearly as dry but putting out less qpf than GFS. 18Z is rolling now out to 30 will see if it comes back up

Oof.

Those are the best ones. ? They have 2-3 and 3-4 ranges though. If they wanted to do 2-4 for SNE they could do a wide area of 2-3 and 3-4. What Scott's saying is that 4-6 aint happening on that wide of scale like they are painting it to be.

they went from the lowest to the highest (out of the 3 CWAs) in one shift change.

Damn thats a lot of snow, we lost coverage on day 1! Some small piles left at the Stop & Shop. I took my sled to the very top of the 5 foot brown pile and sledded up and down for hours. People kept staring at me and i couldn't figure out why.

@SnowGoose69 I'm really not either but tbh i have not been reading or following anything from him since i left WXBell. I used to watch his daily Weather Avenger videos or whatever the hell they were called. I used to trust him and really try to follow what he was saying but my opinion has since changed. He's really biased to snow/cold and has a business to run, i was pretty green back 4-5 years ago and couldn't see that.

NWS thoughts ATM. Coordination seems better but now BOX is more bullish than OKX, wide area of 3-4, 4-6 for 95% of CT.

I'm thinking a general 2-4 for CT, maybe less on the immediate coast SE CT. I started a threat thread.

This is my first ever thread for a snow threat, so hopefully it's a good one. (I promise to never start another one if it busts, ha.) We are now about 36hrs from the start of the event and the December Disco thread has a lot to cover so thought it was a good idea to seperate it. Right now this looks to me as a general 2-4 or so over a wide area of SNE. I don't think there will be much of a difference from coast to inland with the exception of elevation. This is a marginal situation where we will have snow falling on wet roads and places that had temps in the 50s for the past 2 days...so i think there will be a higher impact and more snow covered roads at higher elevations in the interior. There's definitely quite the spread amongst models right now with the GEM/RGEM/UKMET the most bullish and NAM/GFS/ICON/EC on the other side. There's a lot of red flags and things that can go wrong with this one with dry air in the mid levels, delayed precip changeover, etc. I think it's important to keep expectations in check. If everything works out i think the absolute cap with this one is a stripe of 4-8" somewhere in interior CT/MA. I want to look into this a little closer and checkout BUFkit before i issue a map. First map will probably be later today and final call tomorrow. All in all we are looking at our second widespread SNE snow threat and it's only 12/9, so we're off to a good start. Discuss on...

Did you issue a map yet?