TSG

DCA: 98

IAD: 101

BWI: 99

RIC: 101

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. So on March 31, it's wet and cool. On April 16, still cool but drier. Meanwhile, it's been a very warm April. This forum is hilarious.

5th warmest [of 64 years] at IAD.

13th warmest [of 153 years] at DCA.

While only beaten out by 12 years since records began in 1871, the DCA ranking is misleading as heck as well. Prior to 2006, there are only four warmer Aprils to date (1941, 1945, 1980, and 1981). And one of those four (1980) is a negligible 0.1F warmer. This would have been considered an exceptionally warm April in the 1990s or early 2000s when I started observing the weather. That's only 20-ish years ago.

In one generation, what would have been considered a near record warm start to April is now considered "cool." How did we let this become normalized?

 

 

You crunching those numbers in Excel or is there a webpage that let's you create those tables?

Two thoughts:

1. Recency Bias. Yeah this would be a warm April pre turn of the century, but look at how many of the last 25 years are ahead of this year at DCA. #1, #2, and #7 are all in the last 7 years! That's what people remember, especially last year.

2. I'd be interested to see the average High / Low for the montth compared to normal. Avg temp only tells part of the story. A gloomy, cloudier than normal spring may have near average temperatures because of lower highs and higher lows. That doesn't mean it'll feel "warm"

Odd night in Albemarle. CHO hit 39 by 1am, but then the wind kicked up and we were at 45 at 3:15. Managed 36 before sunrise after the wind died off again.

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

DCA messed up again , running mostly +10 versus surrounding stations 

53 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The 5-minute obs haven't been coming in since 2am.  But you are right, the 62 high is 5 degrees warmer than any of the local stations.  I've only been to 54 today.

Water temp in that part of the river is in the low/mid 60s right now, an East wind is the culprit.

21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How we lookin?

Backdoor cold fronts and gloom through June 1 

lol

41 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Well, as someone earlier posted, my experience was VERY different. In 2017 I was on top of a mountain off Foothills Parkway in eastern TN, seeing that darkness close in from a distance was awesome! Being in central TX with small elevation changes you couldn't tell/see it closing in. However, it WAS a longer period of darkness than 2017. We had partly cloudy skies and missed about 30-45 seconds of the start of totality because of it, but the rest was awesome. Their neighbor has chickens and both the roosters carried on like it was morning once the sun broke back out. We saw an awesome bright eruption on the south/lower side of the sun during, and then the ring once the moon started clearing the sun. We got to our location about 4 hours in advance (visiting her relatives) and then stayed another day, so travel was not an issue for us. 

Yeah we were close! I was just a bit further south at one of the overlooks on Cherohala Skyway

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

F-ing wind

It's what we do best. Embrace it.

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I hear you on this, I was looking at the maps (https://eclipsewise.com/eclipse.html) and really gets you thinking in timescales that illustrate just how brief a trip we get here even if all goes well and makes you appreciate getting to see this one. 2090s looking good for grandchildren though from an eclipse viewing travel perspective.. 

I'll be amazed (and maybe ready for the sweet kiss of death lol) if I make it to the 2090s. I guess modern/future medicine should make 90+ a more enjoyable existence down the road, but idk if it's something I'd want to experience today

22 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Well I hope I can start the thread in 21 or so years.  It was a great time.  Next time we should have a meeting place for all of us old people.. lol

Thinking about how old I'll be for that one was an odd feeling. 52...

14 minutes ago, George BM said:

Question for those of you who saw totality in both 2017 and 2024. I notice that the width of totality with this eclipse was larger than it was for 2017. My question is: Did this eclipse's totality seem darker than 2017s?

I would say yes, but my two viewing locations couldn't have been more different so hard to be sure. 2017 was on the side of a mountain in Eastern TN. This year was on Hope Memorial Bridge in downtown Cleveland. Way more artificial light this time around, but it felt about the same, and the 360 degree sunset effect seemed more pronounced.

16 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

We got a hotel room where it's 99.7% totality, in Utica. Our daughter goes to school up near there so we're hooking up with her since her friends can't get their act together to see it. I think we're just going to stay at the hotel and if we miss out on 0.3%, it'll be worth it to have access to a bathroom and not worry about traffic. One thing giving me a little pause is the NWS threat matrix product, which shows 49% sky cover for Monday for Utica at 12 pm. But the p-and-c forecast is mostly sunny. 

 

Not to be a bummer but anything short of totality just isn't worth making the trip. That 0.3% makes it a completely different experience. I would recommend finding a spot within the path you can drive to without hitting too many major roads.

2 hours ago, Interstate said:

I wonder how long it will take them to clear the channel. 

I saw a rough timeline posted somewhere yesterday, from what I remember:

- short term goal is to clear the channel enough for one-way traffic in 3-6 weeks.

- Two-way traffic coming a month or more past that once they've pulled the ship back to port

- ~6 months for full cleanup of the bridge structure

4 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

True to us sensible scientists, but not to State of Maryland. The only thing that redevelopment buys you now is cutting inches of rainfall from 2.2 (roughly) down to 1 inch. If you put impervious on impervious, you still have to do quality control (ESD) as of c. 2015. (Was phased in 50%, 75%, now 100%) . And, in Prince George's, as of 2019, you have to do quantity control too, even though you are replacing roof with roof.

Redskins stadium made some covered parking by making their carport roof out of PV panels. Clever.

VA is more sensible than MD.  But I've long told clients...never try to make sense out of environmental laws.

ahh yeah definitely referencing my experience in VA with that last statement. When I was working on projects in DC they had similar stormwater requirements.

Want a great example of horribly written legislation? In DC, 50% of total rooftop solar panel area counts towards the "green area ratio" requirement on new/re-development. A majority of the reason that bill was enacted was to improve the water holding ability of the local landscape. Solar panels definitely do not retain water 

2 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

About 8-10 years ago, MDE gave in to Big Solar and declared that PV panels are not really impervious, thus avoiding SWM for those thousands of acres  of solar farms. I predict they do similar for new Key Bridge if it becomes a pet project of the State. Otherwise, you'd be right... no bridge for you.

Oooo a topic I know well! I'll keep this short, I know it's off topic. The pervious vs impervious debate on solar panels has been happening in many states and the legislation typically falls well short of common sense... like a lot of things these days. My view as an engineer is they shouldn't be considered completely one or the other except for very specific cases. On a typical ground mount installation, the only truly blocked off portions of the ground are where foundations enter the ground/sit. The panels will of course redirect and concentrate rainfall a bit, but you have gaps between every panel where water can drip down to the ground below. Water running across the ground is also not prevented from entering the ground when running under panels. A more useful piece of legislation would take all this into account, but that would require doing more legwork to figure out. And lawmakers are lazy. So we get half-baked decisions like "totally impervious" or "totally pervious" when the truth lies somewhere in-between. 

Rooftop/garagetop solar won't affect stormwater calcs since they're going on top of already impervious surface. 

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

PSU need not  stalk reply

Worst internet winter ever

Such promise and so many cocky “promises”  Around 12/20 I identified the “delay but….” That was setting up and received tons   of wailing criticism.  That delay pattern continued until a one week late  January blessing with Insistence and constant dumb ass model projection showing indisputable favorable condition reemerging 2/10 thru end of month.  Abysmal failure but Tons of model defenses.  That delayed but horseshit continued on for  late Feb thru mid March and flopped also.

Unlike 90% here I post all seasons and the huggers disappear.  This place needs to decide if it wants to be a fantasy continuous 10+ day drum banger or a mature site for realistic weather discussions  Models  need a huge overhauling and have progressed very very little in last 20 years.  It would be wise to stop denying that. 

.

 

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How much does a ski trip out west cost?

Depends on how early you book. I did trips to Breckenridge/Keystone/A-Basin 5 years in a row ending in 2020, if I booked my flights with Southwest in like September/early October for Jan/Feb I could usually get a round trip for about $300, sometimes even less. Paid only $160 one year! 

Lodging and your lift ticket/pass end up being the majority of the cost. Plan on ~$1000-1500 combined for those for a 5ish day ski trip with maybe one break day. Again the earlier you book the better

And then food/drink.

Add in ~$50/day for rentals if needed. I always flew SW so I could bring my gear for free.

So probably ~$2k all-in these days. I did it for about $1500 total usually, but the last time I went out there was end of Feb 2020. Amazing how the world has changed since then!

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

One of the best March storms was the St. Pattys Day one. We had about 13 inches here. Can’t remember the year…

2014? That's the one I remember from my senior year at JMU. We got ~9" in Harrisonburg, but just 15-20 miles south was bare ground. The N-S gradient was pretty crazy in the valley with that one.

NAM overamped 2+ days out?

wow we've never seen that before 

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Room for a north trend 

Just about 15 miles should do it. Let's get CHO under some dark green/blue. We've been screwed by the last two events!

1 hour ago, Wxdood said:

I would rather not debate this in this thread.  I lurk the forum to read talk about models, patterns etc.  Not discussion alluding to you-know-what causing warm temperatures in winter or our patterns.  There is an entire section of this webside devoted to you-know-what, there is a panic room thread, and a banter thread inside the Mid Atlantic Forum.  It would be nice to keep the Long Range thread for Long Range discussion.  I realize I may not have much pull in this request because of my post count.  Just saying it would be nice.

It's already been somewhat said but completely ignoring the MAJOR geographic differences between the two is bad science/forecasting/discussion. Hoffman's point holds true whether CC is happening or not. This has nothing to do with that topic. Siberia is not North America. Never was, never will be.

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

bruh

We need this emoji as a standard option on here. Who's got access to that?? @stormtracker?

5 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

*Models show legitimate cold airmass but no snow* 

WHERE IS THE DIGITAL BLUE!? ITS OVER! 

*Models show snow*

WHERE IS THE COLD AIR!? ITS OVER! 

Some of yall really need to take the PSU approach right now and see that the overall pattern becomes much more favorable from the 15th on forward, and focus on the details once we get closer. 

I think my favorite oddball takes are from the people who check in here like once a week and then make "all hope is lost" posts when things don't look the exact same as they did 7 days ago  

The GFS has me excited. Solid chances are coming and that's all we can ask for rn.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I thought. I'm telling ya I can't win with this board. I get weenied for saying to relax, weenied for being too much of a deb...I'm the forum piñata basically.

This board gets a little bit more insane every year

5 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

 

Read this post very very carefully.

 

I could find you like 100 others posts just like it talking about a late Jan early Feb epic pattern change. The can has been kicked a month. Soon we will be tracking spring!

So you latched onto a single post from Jan 10th and then ignored the next 2 weeks of pattern discussion. Cool.

And you know the people discussing the forecast can only discuss what the models are spitting out, right? Hoffman's post was effectively "if this look holds, this is our best chance in forever".  You chose to interpret that as gospel 3 weeks out. You've been in this hobby way too long to expect models to be that accurate...