paulythegun

Just checking to see if….oh

god bless the AIs

Next weekend quietly trending toward some VERY cold rain for the city

Lol

Extended range models show a rug late March. I think I'll go stand on it, seems stable

DAS BOOT!

I know, I know, it's an anafront and will end up being a put on, a put on! like the Who said. But the system keeps trending more progressive on GEFS (slight step back at 12z) and that's the trend we want for an overrunning anafront whatever event right? 

The sun shines...and people forget.
The snow packs...as the skier tracks.
People forget
Forget they're hiding

Behind an Anafront. An anafront (it's a put on! it's a put on!)

Seems weird to analyze weather without factoring in temperature trends. But to each his own.

It seems like it hurts people’s feelings that it’s warmer. And that’s why it cant be spoken of...

That’s ok. It hurts my feelings too.

I didn’t even look at the run. It was a joke. 
 
But….and I promise this is the last time (at least in this thread) that I’ll say this…but several years ago when I did that case study of every Baltimore 4”+ snowstorm I was shocked how many actually featured a totally shit god awful pattern with reds and blues in all the wrong places with a pile airmass where it was 50 degrees the day before and the only thing that went right was somehow by some means the storm took a perfect track and so we got a 6” wet snow paste bomb storm.
 
Obviously that wasn’t the majority of our storms and it’s not how we want to roll. I’m not saying we root for crap patterns. But it was enough of the storms that if we can’t ever get that kind of thing anymore, where it snows just because of a good track in an awful pattern, then it’s going to hurt us A Fooking Lot!   Way more than some here want to admit!  
Just off the top of my head without even looking at the files…
Our only real snow in 1997 came in a god awful pattern because we got lucky with a wave track. 
Look at this BS…we got a 4-8” snow from THIS BS on a stick pattern.  

1976 would have been a completely snowless winter if not for a 10” wet snow storm that came in a pattern that had no business snowing in.
There was another year in the early 90s where our only 2 significant snows both came in a pattern that had no business snowing. Yea it was a crap year but most had like 10-15” not NOTHING!  
 
You know what they all have in common. They’re a long ass time ago. It’s not happening anymore.  There were a lot in the 50s, 60s, 70s, then they started to decline and they’ve gone extinct the last 10 years.
 
Lately our bad patterns are so warm that it doesn’t matter what the track is.  And every time I hear the same thing…but this wasn’t perfect. That wasn’t perfect. The high was too this or that. There was too much ridging in front.  Yea no shit I know it can still snow if every fucking thing goes perfect. Yea if we get a 980 low off VA beach with a 1040 high over Montreal and a -3stdv block with a -epo arctic air mass yes we will get a shit ton of snow. But that’s going to happen once a decade. What about the rest of the god damn time?  We had so many bad but not awful winters in the past where if you take away a couple snows that came from pure luck in a shit pattern they are suddenly a 3” snow year instead of 12” or absolutely nothing instead of 10” like 1976!  
 
lastly I know it’s impossible to prove what storms would or wouldn’t have been a snow 30 years ago. Not without tools I don’t have access too. There were perfect track rains in the 50s too when it was just too warm for any track to overcome.  But there were some snows too!  So while I can’t prove anything because of any one storm…when it happens over and over and over and none of them seem to be snow outside the higher elevations anymore…the preponderance of evidence is damning. 

3 hours ago, paulythegun said:

*nerd voice*

EXTRAPOLATING....EXTRAPOLATING

18z: Moved up a few days (instead of drifting out to sea and then retrograding to merge with a cold front). Very sad. I wanted to see what the panel after 384 showed.

PAIN

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

P27 drops 4 feet so it might be skewing the mean lmao




.

Only 58 inches in Salisbury, MD so you've gotta figure this hits Georgetown pretty hard

*nerd voice*

EXTRAPOLATING....EXTRAPOLATING

11 hours ago, Jebman said:

No its not. We got one more snowstorm!

Bowling Ball Season is upon us! anything is possible when a cut-off low "makes its own cold air!"

Might as well jump!
Go ahead and jump!

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

At this point you might want to root for warmer... spring skiing up there can be awesome.  Soft snow, light jacket...what you don't want is a cold front after a warm up and you get a sheet of ice.  I just hope they have enough base to make it to April.  I got some good news from the MRI on my knee but even if rehab goes well I won't be able to get out there until April.  In a typical year April is my favorite month up in Vermont and Maine actually...but it looks so freaking warm up there the next 2 weeks with possible big rain events...I wonder if they will have much base left by then.  

ETA:  To explain, with the rain coming up there it would take a LOT of snow to actually cover the ice base that would develop if it gets cold again.  They would need to make or get at least 18" to actually have good skiing conditions again.  A lot of the snow initially would just blow or get skiid off the trails with hard ice under it.  Following a thaw like that it typically takes 2 feet before conditions are good again.  So your better bet is to root for it to stay warm and get nice soft spring slush.  

100% agree on slush. There's a right kind of spring slush where you haven't seen the freezing mark for a few days. It's way better than the freeze/unfreeze/freeze/unfreeze stuff. I went to Timberline the morning of the super bowl. Light rain, 50F at the bottom, felt almost like powder (just a bit slower and more tiring). Every slope was open. Very little ice outside of some shaded, north facing patches.

PS: People in the west laugh at this sort of talk

For laughs, still checking on the ECMWF Extended. Here are the last two runs showing March 8th 00z. And...shocker... The March 12th/forward pattern it's been advertising keeps moving forward as we get closer. 

Wow. Thread?

Just wait til you see what the superheated ocean plus nina is gonna do to tropical this fall. Gonna have some interesting hurricanes to track. I live too far inland to ever be concerned about super hurricanes hitting my backyard. I am quite safe.
Miami, Outer Banks, New Orleans, Washington DC,  well better relocate to much higher ground NOW. It's gonna be hell tryin to evacuate big metropolises in time, especially these days.

Just wait til you see what the superheated ocean plus nina is gonna do to tropical this fall. Gonna have some interesting hurricanes to track. I live too far inland to ever be concerned about super hurricanes hitting my backyard. I am quite safe.
Miami, Outer Banks, New Orleans, Washington DC,  well better relocate to much higher ground NOW. It's gonna be hell tryin to evacuate big metropolises in time, especially these days.