Lookout
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Even for the gfs, that's pretty bad. That's more like the old avn type of busts.
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well the 0z gfs holds in showing much warmer temps. If our suspicions are correct, this could be an epic bust on it's way out the door. Nam is up to 8 degrees colder than the gfs over north ga.
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The 0z nam is a little slower than the 18z run in dropping temps but it happens very quick when it does. Interestingly the nam is showing the core of the cold air at 950mb instead of 925mb this run. I wouldn't be surprised to see it speed up by a number of hours again since i suspect the nam, nor any model, will be able to accurately get down the quick cool down over the western carolinas where the whole atmosphere is quite a bit colder/drier. Also, nam is showing quite a bit of mid level cooling and given the cold low levels i suspect there could be quite a bit of sleet over northeast ga....especially considering precip rates. But watch levels between 850mb and 700mb...warm nose there could screw the upstate's snow for a little while. Nam, not surprising is more bullish with it than the gfs.
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This is pretty crazy......925mb winds of 50 to 55 knot winds across damming regions of ga/sc by sunday 12z. 40 knot winds at 950mb. 10 meter 20 knots. It's Some serious wedging lol
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pretty fun looking run right into next week....although not much fun about damaging ice....although i'm hopeful that sleet might save the day for areas north of athens while snow could pile up north of 85 if this run is to be believed. very wet run though...nearly 3 inches of liquid close to here and approaching 3 inches in western nc.
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yeah this run finally looks like it bought a clue. There have been times the models have shown some cooling of the mid levels over the heart of the cad regions and it's something to watch for as we get closer...could mean more snow/sleet further south than expected. I wouldn't be surprised to see snow/sleet mixing here at times. What i wouldn't give for just 1 or 2 more degrees cooling aloft.
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I've been conflicted about this due to the lack of low surface dewpoints and the fact that most of our ice/winter storms don't have a long period of just plain rain before hand. (instead just a few hours as we wetbulb down) But every other major indicator i look for is there. Some of it is just general things i have noticed over the years...like it normally ices here if the 0c 850mb isotherm starts south of the nc/sc border, Not only does it do that but it touches ne ga as well. 850s never get above a few degrees above freezing, very deep east/northeasterly flow...all the way up to at least 875mb (which is higher than average)......indeed even the 850mb level has that wedge look which is an indicator of a really good one, tight pressure gradient, and strong boundary layer winds.... latest nam is showing 925mb winds at an impressive 45 to 50 knot across north ga by hour 84. The good news for north of 85 is that it might get could enough to make for more sleet than freezing rain because of the cold low levels and mid level temps actually cooling at times. It would be nice if that sleet makes it this far south. Earlier runs of the euro had it very close to doing that but i fear the odds are more likely it's freezing rain for the most part here unless 900 to 975mb temps trend colder or mid levels are a bit cooler.
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after a ho hum run this morning, this run is pretty scary looking for northeast ga in terms of ice potential. 925mb temps plummet by sat evening....on the order -4 to 5c... with surface temps dropping below freezing by midnight or so,,,even down to the northeast burbs of atlanta with a lot of precip left to go.
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lol...amen. Mine too...probably my top one. I understand it if someone is a noob but what's frustrating is you see people who have been around long enough to know better do it.
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I'd be pretty excited if i was in the upstate because i think it's a given right now that most of the precip will be of the winter variety in some form or fashion. It's ok, i wasn't directing that at you but that being said just a little less banter/one liners and taking the gfs at face value with cad would probably be better. As i said above, i'd be happy if i was where you were. Of course my standards are a lot lower probably.
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enough complaining. if you don't like it, leave.
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The pressure gradient and packed isobars are impressive with this system. In general all show a 12mb pressure difference across ga and 20mb from west ga to nc at it's maximum. That's about as good as one can hope to see. Indeed you see it in the 20 to 40 knot low level northeasterly flow across ga/carolinas. If the nam is correct in it's depiction of lower dewpoints, surface pressures, and much colder low levels, you can pretty much toss the gfs surface temps in the trash.
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I'm willing to bet a dollar that the gfs is full of **** for gsp/upstate. canadian is quite a bit colder than previous runs. a whopping 8 degrees colder in fact here.
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i pretty much had the exact same thought in my head...the differences at 925mb for example between it and the nam are something over the carolinas. At hour 78 , nam has northerly flow and 925mb temps 5c colder while the gfs has southwesterly flow at 925mb over the carolinas. Nam is about 4mb higher with surface pressures over the mid atlantic than the gfs at 84 hours.
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yes it's the 84 hour nam but fwiw, looks like precip would start as snow or snow/sleet/rain mix by the time it gets to the savannah river sat morning. Nam has temps into the mid to upper 30s, dewpoints in the upper 20s..with even colder/drier air and ne flow off the surface. Nam sure looks a lot more promising than the gfs still.
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I know everyone is focused on snow but even the fv3 has surface temps near or below freezing for a lot of the storm in the northern upstate. And that is not taking into consideration it's warm bias with cad. I think the icing potential in the upstate is quite high.
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That is the general rule of thumb, especially with respectable dewpoint depressions. Which again is the one ingredient that's been missing with this system south of nc on the models. Even so, it's almost a given that the models will be at least 1 to 3 degrees too warm even without much dry air to work with. Sometimes it's more though, like the last cad we had where models across the board were showing temps bottoming out in ne ga from 38 in the far north to as high as 40 and 41 here right up until it happened....in reality the temps dropped as low as 33/34 at cornelia and gainesville and 36 here. Much of that was thanks to some colder air just off the surface but it was with dewpoint depressions of just a few degrees. Regardless, it was quite a miss for the models. I've been watching this...and it would have ramifications obviously. I'ts not just at the surface though. the new 12z nam is much colder/drier in the low levels in general. Huge differences at 925mb between the nam and gfs over the carolinas. It's the long range nam so we should throw in the usual disclaimers but this is a big and notable difference and if right, the gfs surface temps are likely quite off in cad areas. Note the nam has northerly/northeasterly flow being established quite a bit sooner than the gfs over the carolinas/ga. Up to 7c difference over eastern sc. Also, Interesting to note gfs has winds quite high in the boundary layer...with surface winds up to 15 to 20 knots and winds up to 925mb winds increasing to 35 to 40 knots across ne ga/upstate by late saturday afternoon which is pretty impressive. Given the isobars, it's not surprising. One would think caa would be rather strong. We will see if the nam is on to something. nam first/gfs second
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yep, if there was , this one would be a no brainer for big ice at least where im at but because there isnt im not too bullish on much yet.
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It's frustrating that it keeps hanging on to the further north track of the low...i want to see it's profiles with the further south low track. As usual a lot of conflicting signs...the gfs has a decent low track but it's lack of high pressure over the mid atlantic results in little in the way of cad/caa. The canadian has a much better high but terrible low track and the end result is the same. Short of this low getting totally squashed, it seems like nc is likely to get something rather significant.....whether it's snow or ice. The same can't be said though for ne ga/upstate...especially ne ga. Biggest concern for areas south of nc is high pressure strength/not building in time and lack of any low dewpoints which means CAA will have to do the trick.....which we all know doesn't often work out. Really want to see that high building into the mid atlantic faster....certainly a lot more than the gfs.
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yeah this run is awfully sleety looking for a lot of folks...including north ga...850s only marginally above freezing with a deep subfreezing layer....925s are very cold down to around -6c. I'll take that over 2 inches of freezing rain for sure. Freezing line gets into central ga but fortunately a lot of the heaviest precip is over by the time it does so freezing rain accumulations look marginal there...though i suspect we will see a band of fairly significant freezing rain still somewhere. Sc looks to do much better with snow. Interesting it also has the upper level system hanging around for a while too providing light snows afterwards. Rather impressively the fv3 doesn't have most areas getting much above freezing again until tuesday.
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I'm wondering if convective feedback isn't an issue earlier on in texas causing the low to be too far north there initially. Euro has the heavy convection quite a bit further south near the tx coast. Gfs also seems to travel south of due east from there, which would be unusual. I think what this shows is that there is very little margin for error south of nc with any adjustments to the north likely resulting in ice or rain.
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Although the nw trend is the norm, it can go the other way too. I can't recall if it was last year or the year before where there was good agreement on a major storm with lots of precip showing up for a few days around this range and in the end it got crushed and i don't think we even got a sprinkle.
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Yeah, it's pretty crazy. Indeed, considering how far off this is, there is some remarkably good agreement among all the modeling. Considering that, Although the usual precautions should always apply given how far off it is, it's hard not to be optimistic of something significant..whether it's snow or ice. Still though, it's not unusual for a generally agreed upon modeled major storm turn to nothing even with good agreement at this range...but we are in a better than usual spot i would think.
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it sure does, This never ending heat has been so depressing. Extremes normally average out in the long run and One would hope that maybe all this extreme heat means we will have lots of cold later but watch this winter end up being summer light.
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ffc has gone back to mid to upper 80s here all week. ****!
