WhiteoutWX

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I want to point something out. In actual SSTs for Nino 3.4, each month for Jan-Aug, 2018 is closest to 2006 and 2012. In 2012, we had similar warmth in Nino 3.4 to now, but the subsurface began to rapidly decay, ahead of the fall to a cold Neutral winter. I really don't see that happening, at least as of late September, in the subsurface -

 

 

 

Yeah from a subsurface standpoint this is looking nothing like 2012. Subsurface warmth is increasing still. Looks more like 2006 to me.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Trend is going to being to be towards less impact should this trend continue....main threat being fresh water flooding.

Tell that to Wilmington... I think the Euro shows lots of possibilities still on the table. This would spare inland area for the most part but could be devastating for coastal locations with prolonged impacts from wind, surf, rain.

PBP of the NAM looking for track clues belongs in banter thread 

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Well, they threw in a little 10% for NE CO at 1630 so maybe today will grow a pair after all.

Figures, just in time for my vacation to end action picks up a little bit, although yesterday and today's threats by themselves probably wouldn't be enough to draw me that far out.

I think I'm done taking a week off each spring for "chasing." This is the fourth straight year I've booked one based on late May/early June climo and each year it has coincided with the deadest period possible. I'll just try to take off for the significant troughs as they show up on the models and if they go to crap, then just do something else with the PTO day.

I've always thought the idea of a chasecation seemed pretty risky. Even excluding this years absolute trainwreck into a pile of dumpster fires of a season...during a normal season a week of poorly timed troughs could mean the whole vacation is a wash. Maybe I'm just not a "dedicated" enough chaser though lol. 

11 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What an epic bust today was. Not sorry I bailed on chasing after looking at things this morning, although I still expected there to be widespread severe across NE KS/SE NE/SW IA/NW MO. Just a low chance of photogenic/tornadic storms. Not the complete lack of storms in the area.

2018...everything that can go wrong, will go wrong. 

29 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The GFS shows a decent synoptic setup for severe weather on Saturday, with CAPE of 4000 J/kg in OK and KS. There is a cold front, warm front, and dryline. There could be 70-73 degree dew points in Oklahoma. 0-6km shear values increase from 18z to 00z.

With quite the stout cap to go along with it. I think Saturday the only hope is further north with stronger forcing. I haven’t looked to closet though tbh.

This is mostly in jest, but when the long range GFS has been consistently showing hurricane landfalls in the gulf in May you know the overall pattern is total crap. 

I’m hopeful that either one of the days, Tuesday/Wednesday, will end up being a decent chase day. The synoptic pieces are there so that gives some confidence at this range. But I’m also trying to not get too excited given the 6/7 day lead time at this point. That said, Euro is really nice looking. 

Just the simple fact it’s showing a legit ridge on the east coast for what seems like the first time this year has me encouraged. 

The 00z Euro looked to be a nudge towards the GFS regarding more significant troughing over the west starting around day 7. Let’s see if we can get some persistence now.

Euro doesn't look anything like the GFS unfortunately with relatively weak flow across most of the plains. Still like 10 days out there and definitely a period to watch (the only thing to watch at this point).

As a local in Oklahoma who also enjoys winter weather I think the biggest source of frustration has been we have now had to endure two consecutive almost record breakingly boring and snowless winters which sandwiched last spring which was rather meh from a chasing perspective. And now this spring looks to at the very least be dead for the first half. It’s hard not to get antsy as a weather enthusiast when you’ve gone this long without any real stretch of interesting weather. I know the season ain’t over but it’s a real exercise in patience waiting for *something* interesting to happen. 

There always the chance for late May magic, I’m reserving calling the season for at least another few weeks, even as bad as things look at the moment.

22 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

The GEFS GWO phase space plots do have me somewhat concerned but again, even that hardly touches on May at this point. At some point it comes crashing down and climo wins out. If we still see progs like this by May 10th, then I’ll talk about reaching “awful May” status. 

Can you elaborate on why the GWO phase space plots have you concerned? From everything I’ve read Phases 1/2 are the best phases for tornado activity in the US. The current GEFS forecast has us solidly in phase 2 in about 5 days, with the long range taking it into high magnitude phase 2 territory. Is there something else you were seeing?

Those are some very intense circulations. Rotational velocities have exceeded 40-50kts at times with that northern cell.

8 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Sounding climatology suggests that 60F dew-points would be high-end for the time of year.

MAF sounding climo suggests a 55F dew would move into the 90th percentile, while lower 60s is the max for the 64+ year period of record. 
At AMA, 50F is already well above the 90th percentile, with almost no soundings eclipsing 60F dews in April.

Remember that West Texas has a similar elevation to the CO/KS border region, as higher terrain does not necessitate higher dew-points as lower terrain areas. Dew-points in the mid and especially upper 50s would be sufficient. Mean mixing ratios of 11+ g/kg (which GFS shows) will get it done. With that said, I don't think there's any reason to believe this will be a major event, but it certainly has the ingredients for a respectable April event in the High Plains, assuming storms remain at least somewhat isolated. 

Let's keep an eye on it and see how moisture return looks. If it trends lower than it is now, then maybe we'll have a problem. At the very least. the setup should bring some much needed rain to the panhandle region, which has been plagued by a major drought and destructive fire season as of late.

I guess I should have been more specific as to which part of Texas I was referring to. I meant more in the Big Spring to Wichita Falls area which is at a much lower elevation. On closer inspection though the dryline will likely be much further west and you’re right those dews would go further at higher elevations.

And agreed on the much needed rainfall! Will help with ongoing fire fighting efforts in some of those areas as well

GFS and EURO with sub-60 degree dewpoints even in west/central Texas has me underwhelmed for Friday. The low-level shear is good but that’s some pretty meager moisture for this time of year. I’ve been following this for days waiting for this aspect to improve but models have been very consistent. I find it hard to expect anything more than a low end threat exists at this time. 

Eventually the gulf will stop getting bombarded with crashing cold fronts but doesn’t seem like that will stop for the foreseeable future.

23 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

seems like both the Euro and GFS are seeing some troughiness out west at day 10?  I can buy it - there's strong support for low heights in the Maritimes and with the wavelengths this time of year that's not inconsistent with something coming out of the four corners. We shall see.

Problem is the front late this week plows south basically to the equator...will moisture recover quick enough for whatever next system may approach?

Gfs and euro are worlds apart with the timing of the wave ejection end of next week. Gfs says late Thursday, euro says Friday. Severe potential much greater on the Euro with better moisture and shear.

2 hours ago, andyhb said:

The idea shown on the Euro/EPS mean is a more low amplitude pattern that doesn't necessarily mean a big SE ridge.

Low amplitude can work but I’d be worried about moisture return this early in the season if systems are spaced too closely. 

34 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

Am a fan of the euro/EPS mean for mid-late next week. 

Will be nice if we can actually get some decent ridging for an extended period in the east. The general pattern since November, with a few exceptions, doesn’t lend much confidence to that. 

4 hours ago, bdgwx said:

All I can say to that is wow...

6 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

Although the trends are encouraging one thing to watch is early/midday convection. Looks like a lead impulse is leading to pretty widespread convection/rainfall over the central OK warm sector by morning/midday which would put a huge dent in potential for Sunday. Obviously things can and will probably change but as we enter realm of better predictability, this is a growing concern. 

At least for now, the GFS and Euro seem to be keeping areas west of 35 relatively rain free during the afternoon before CI which could leave at least some area of potential open over western/west-central OK.

45 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Recent GFS runs would support some degree of severe threat in the southern/central Plains next Sunday, the 25th. Warm sector SRH and EHI took a big jump from the 00z to the 06z run, popping some impressive analogs. Remains to be seen if it has legs, but it's the next thing to watch.

Something to watch, although the GFS has been wildly inconsistent on placement/magnitude of potential threats (to be expected from this range I guess). Euro is slower with the trough and would shift any potential focus to Monday and beyond.

ETA: On closer inspection even with the slower trough the Euro would still imply at least some severe threat in Texas/southern Oklahoma for Sunday.

00z Euro and 12z NAM looking a little better for Sunday. Moisture return at this point is marginal but the trend with the surface low and upper wave has improved the shear profiles. Definitely time for it to trend better.