WhiteoutWX

6 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

Although the trends are encouraging one thing to watch is early/midday convection. Looks like a lead impulse is leading to pretty widespread convection/rainfall over the central OK warm sector by morning/midday which would put a huge dent in potential for Sunday. Obviously things can and will probably change but as we enter realm of better predictability, this is a growing concern. 

At least for now, the GFS and Euro seem to be keeping areas west of 35 relatively rain free during the afternoon before CI which could leave at least some area of potential open over western/west-central OK.

45 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Recent GFS runs would support some degree of severe threat in the southern/central Plains next Sunday, the 25th. Warm sector SRH and EHI took a big jump from the 00z to the 06z run, popping some impressive analogs. Remains to be seen if it has legs, but it's the next thing to watch.

Something to watch, although the GFS has been wildly inconsistent on placement/magnitude of potential threats (to be expected from this range I guess). Euro is slower with the trough and would shift any potential focus to Monday and beyond.

ETA: On closer inspection even with the slower trough the Euro would still imply at least some severe threat in Texas/southern Oklahoma for Sunday.

00z Euro and 12z NAM looking a little better for Sunday. Moisture return at this point is marginal but the trend with the surface low and upper wave has improved the shear profiles. Definitely time for it to trend better.

Until this blocking pattern over eastern North America breaks down I’m not excited about early season severe in the Plains. Moisture will continually be a problem in that setup with a trough parked on the east coast and northerly flow over the gulf.

GFS has hints of the blocking holding on all the way to the end of the run, so we’ll see. I’m highly skeptical of the ERTAF forecast for above normal tornado activity in the southern plains and Midwest for next week.

Just no July like ridging in April this year. Almost the entire month of April last year was wasted due to substantial ridging over the Rockies and Plains with the jet stream up in Canada at times IIRC.

I’m just hoping to see a hodograph that looks like that in May when when know moisture/instability will be there. So many junky hodographs the past few years in the southern plains.

i think my question is if we can get convection to fire on the dryline. The ejecting shortwave is rather robust but the cap is definitely there and will still be hard to overcome if we can’t get some amount of warming to the east of the dryline. Hints of extensive cloud cover and showers in the models don’t lend confidence to that happening IMO, but obviously that type of thing is hard to forecast. It only takes a small window for something to produce with that shear profile.

Been mostly sleet here in the south okc metro. Roads are completely covered white.

32 minutes ago, NJ_Ken said:

It is a really, REALLY raw, cold day out there.  It is 22 F here and the wind just cuts right through you.  Nothing is falling from the sky yet, but it's close.  You can feel it. FYI, it sounds like sleet rather than freezing rain has been the predominant precipitation for everybody to our south and west.  I don't know if that will translate all the way here or toward Tulsa and beyond but I suspect it will.  

I expect sleet to be the main ptype for most of central Oklahoma. Thickness values are lower today than they were yesterday when we saw a lot of sleet. Though the convective influence will be less today so that may offset a bit. Either way, based on current radar I doubt any areas in central Oklahoma will get more than 0.25” qpf. The heavy  precip sheild is mostly skirting through southern Oklahoma.

21 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Doesn't surprise me, and with another shield of precip headed that way with temps in the mid twenties, I find it hard to believe we won't see some ice storm warnings issued.

I'd say there may be a swath a couple counties wide stretching from SE OKC metro on ENE that may overlap with the cold air enough to meet the Ice Storm Warning threshold today, definitely if you include forecast amounts for tomorrow. But it is probably better to have separate headlines given the two events will be separated by nearly 24 hours. I think if the models had done a better job today in anticipating frontal positioning and precipitation amounts you would have seen the ice storm warnings in that narrow path I mentioned. But everyone has been playing catch up to this event. It might not be worth putting one out now given it will be ending by early this evening in most areas.

1 hour ago, NJ_Ken said:

The front has been literally hovering in my backyard all night.  It was 44 F when I went to bed.  It is now 68 F.  El Reno and Guthrie, both less than 30 miles away, are at 37 F! 

Edit:  and just like that, the front is heading south again.  Literally minutes later, it is back down to 37 F in my backyard on the north side of OKC. 

Edit #2:  Wow.  A thunderstorm popped up just to our west and it is nasty out there.  34 F with hail and a few rumbles of thunder.  

Been a fascinating forecast the past 24 hours. Models have been playing catch up to the frontal position the whole time (per usual) but this event has been impressive in that even the usually better performing high res guidance have been busting pretty badly with the frontal position even at a couple hour lead times. It now looks like a potentially more impactful ice event across northern and even central Oklahoma than it looked just 12 hours ago as the front sneaks south behind the departing precipitation today and now the next wave tomorrow is looking a bit more robust and needs to be watched closely.

32 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Nice pics, we had the ever so slightest glaze here in the Tulsa area over the weekend. Some slick spots on Saturday night was the worst it got. 

So since every model shows a great storm until about 5 days out and then squashes it, do we have a different change in pattern coming up that might let me be a little more hopeful?
Because I see a few ice storms on the horizon on the models but figure there's no point to even hope that we may see something if the overall upper pattern is the same.

I would say the upcoming pattern on the surface looks much improved, with a deep trough in the West and ridging along the east coast. I’m worried though that these trough aren’t digging into the central US but instead are burying themselves along the west coast then weakening as they lift northeast. That pattern has the potential to leave the southern plains with quick shots at precip but nothing substantial in terms of drought busting precip. I’ll take the advertised upcoming pattern over the endless dry NW flow we have been stuck in for the past 3 months, but I’m hesitant to get too excited just yet about the prospects of widespread heavier precipitation, much less a widespread winter event. I wish I had something more optimistic to say but this winter just hasn’t wanted to cooperate on the whole!

On 2/9/2018 at 2:21 PM, WhiteoutWX said:

I’ll start paying closer attention if it is still on the models in 2 days. We’ve seen many a storm get dampened out on the models in the 6-10 day range this year. It’s been impossible getting it inside 5 days. So that’s my signal it may be legit if it can make it to day 5. For an example of how this goes wrong, look at the 00z GFS, or today’s 12z Euro. Northern stream crushes the southern wave, which has also been the theme this year with a Niña driven dominant northern stream. I’m just hoping for some precip of any kind at this point.

2 days later and like clockwork the models have dampened out the southern wave in favor of a more dominant northern stream. This winter has been very easy to forecast.

I’ll start paying closer attention if it is still on the models in 2 days. We’ve seen many a storm get dampened out on the models in the 6-10 day range this year. It’s been impossible getting it inside 5 days. So that’s my signal it may be legit if it can make it to day 5. For an example of how this goes wrong, look at the 00z GFS, or today’s 12z Euro. Northern stream crushes the southern wave, which has also been the theme this year with a Niña driven dominant northern stream. I’m just hoping for some precip of any kind at this point.

Can we start a drought contest lol? Guess the next widespread 0.25”+ event. This pattern is getting ridiculous. 

15 hours ago, wxmx said:

But the AO and EPO are forecasted to go negative

While the model forecasts may technically be showing a flip to -AO in the longer range, they're also showing a very strong and in-tact vortex over Canada, which does not bode well for extended cold at lower latitudes. 

3 hours ago, wxmx said:

Models are showing the coldest and most expansive air mass of the season in Canada, with the NE Siberian and West Coast ridges joining up in Alaska, in a classic -EPO configuration. Temps < -40C/F bottle up and are ready to burst the dam by the end of the first week of February. The question is if it's going to be a direct hit or a glancing blow, as these super dense air masses can't be kept forever up there.

 

* First time I see a 1070mb high in NW Canada in the GFS...although it's day 13

+AO argues for glancing blows at these latitudes, but we'll see.

2 hours ago, bdgwx said:

It's still more than week out so a lot could change. But, the EPS and GEFS means for the QPF swaths are not encouraging for Oklahoma.

Until we get the mean trough axis over the Rockies and not over the Mississippi nothing will change. Northwest flow is DRY for the plains in almost any month, but especially in the winter. Until that changes expect no significant precipitation over the majority of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. People looking at specific model runs showing precip here and there are ignoring the overall pattern which indeed has not changed since the beginning of November. Which is why basically every storm shown 8+ days out has disappeared or shifted east or south as it gets closer in time.

There hasn't been a single major storm system since October for the majority of the southern plains. Long range pattern generally more of the same...storm systems amplifying to the east or northeast. Just give me one system ejecting out of the southwest...we've got drought conditions exploding across Oklahoma and Texas. We need precipitation badly.

21 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Mike Morgan from KFOR already talking about the possibility of wintry precipitation on Christmas, 11 days away. Such a bad representative for mets everywhere, despite being in a state whose flagship university is known for meteorology. 

"LATEST LOOK at Christmas Day in OKC. This forecast is based on a LOT of different and constantly changing forecasts from about 150 computer models a DAY. General PATTERN of all of these COLDER with MOISTURE POSSIBLE. Still 12 days away but will track it."

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/941163647463813120

 

 

Love his EF+/- forecasts on severe days. Those are *super* helpful

While I think the chances of snow on or near Christmas are greater than average this year...to make an 11 day forecast with hourly timing is absolutely absurd and dishonest as to the current capabilities of the field of meteorology. 

Finally feels a bit like December out there. Bottom line for anyone looking for real snow: it’s not gonna happen in this pattern. It’s not amplified enough for northern stream systems to make it south of us, and the trough axis is too far east for pretty much anyone west of the Mississippi River if a system were to amplify. The GFS/Euro and their ensembles have been hinting at more troughing to our west in the longer range, but they also suggest a general deamplification of the trough to our east, meaning any systems coming out of the west may draw too much warm air ahead of them. All of this is long range speculation and subject to change, but so far nothing I’ve seen on the models screams favorable snow pattern for this part of the country.

On 11/30/2017 at 6:48 PM, raindancewx said:

Canadian model has trended somewhat colder (to only a bit above average) and much wetter for this area of the US, as the Jamstec did last month, and as I forecast(!).

Those temperature anomalies would be quite the reversal of what the models are showing for the first half of December for large parts of the country. 

Probably the best GFS run I’ve seen for this part of the country. Keeps the trough more towards the center of the country, retrogrades to our west by the end of the run with continued ridging into Alaska/western Canada to continue funneling cold air. Models have been bouncing around a lot with the post 7 day period so we will see if it lasts...

I think it’s safe to say the models are struggling badly with the upcoming blocking pattern. Huge differences run to run, even as close in as day 4/5. Expect many more changes to come. But man that 12z GFS is nice to look at! 

14 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

I fully expect to see an interesting storm in our area near Thanksgiving.

The general idea of blocking showing up is good, but the details as to where the troughs and ridges are setting up do not look at all favorable for our area. I think we are a good 2+ weeks from any real opportunities at winter weather. We need the pesky GOA low to get replaced with ridging and force a downstream trough into the western/central US. Until that happens we will mostly be dealing with brief cold intrusions but mostly dry conditions.

00z GFS continues with an extremely impressive blocking pattern in the long range. By the end of the run has TWO closed upper highs in Canada/Greenland with the PV basically trapped over the Great Lakes. Given support from the GEFS and the Euro/EPS this is about as encouraging a sign as one can get for cold/snow at lower latitudes, especially if we can keep this blockiness into December.