ers-wxman1

Family and friends on Long Island where I grew up texting with 1-2 foot forecasts, gusts to 50. This one stings. It was sampled as our storm 5 days ago. “King euro” terminology should be barred from this forum. It’s a used to be king euro. It has sucked since summer. 

16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nam'd dddddddd

48 hours more of frozen of various intensity.  Wintery through Tuesday evening 

Just have to take lsd to find it 

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Root for the best fronto right over my head. I'll root with you if you'd like.  

It’s not happening! It’s a bust here! 

How does everyone like “king euro” from 5 days ago? It was only off by 3 states in its assessment! Its no longer as good as it was and it was awful over the summer. Too much reliance on king euro! Euro, CMC, UKmet, RGEM, all overdone. 

Snowfall in Ashburn ... 3”

Just now, JakkelWx said:

guess ill hug the rgem now

It’s all we got lol 

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

How likely do you think the snows back in Ohio would be at 84hr on the NAM? I know the NAM is crazy, but that seems pretty loco.

It’ll snow up there until that primary fully dissipates. 

High end advisory to warning level snows on the front end of the NAM, but that’s all she wrote with the coastal heading north. CCB deform band will be in southern New England on this run. Lucky we get some light wrap around snow and that will be all. No tuck. 

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Wonder what the Canadian suite is keying in on that the others aren't.   Deep down, we all know it's not going to go down like this.  Would be an interesting case study tho

Maybe they injected the vaccine into it leading to a healthy scenario. 

Just now, Ji said:

2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

18z Icon...looks like it took a step back on both the front end and the coastal. Real challenge this system has been. Tough to get any model to stay consistent for more than a couple runs. 

That's why you gotta run with the rgem lol

If the RGEM is right I’ll cook filet mignon on the grill for 5 people on this forum. My filets are pretty darn good too. Ask Millvillewx.

18z Icon...looks like it took a step back on both the front end and the coastal. Real challenge this system has been. Tough to get any model to stay consistent for more than a couple runs. 

18z NAM is a total front end beat down. 5-8” most places. Little to no snow on the coastal. 

CMC looks impressive. Most will like it, especially the suburbs. Low tuck, stall, bit of mixing then good banding. 

Just now, Ji said:

if this is actually snow on the icon and not rain...............

FF from 21z on

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Seems like it's got thermal issues, gets pretty much everyone in MD not in the Appalachians into rain for a long period of time.

No ice feature on the model, I believe it only shows rain and snow, at least on TT. It has all snow in good bands with the low tucked near the coast all the way into 03z Wednesday. Overdone? Perhaps, but so is RGEM. Perhaps though we are seeing signals that the better stuff might be shifting south again. That’s how I would take it.

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll take it, but might need LSD to actually find it 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

how is that model? I think its the first time ive ever heard you mention it lol

Just like any other model. It has its biases, however in recent events it’s been more conservative when the GFS would bust high. It’s improving. 

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I thought 3K looked a tad better. It's not there yet, but it's way better than 12k and hopefully is catching on.

I think we all just need to hug the hell out of the RGEM. It's been consistently delivering for us.

Agree with what PSU said above about the trend with these tends to be later than modeled redevelopment, so you would certainly not prefer to see yourself on the southern edge of the CCB on models. Looks like somewhere between NYC and Philly is likely the spot to be, but let's see what happens. 

In my opinion this is the best run of the Icon for our area yet. Oddly the snow maps aren’t all that impressive. 

Icon looks good. Faster and further south development of the coastal. Tucks into the eastern shore with nice banding into many areas by 00z Tue.

3 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

Ukmet, CMC, and wxrisk clown maps should be banned in storm mode as fake news. Let's focus on the adult models...

The large discrepancy between all the models is indicative of how uncertain things are. Pattern is fragile with a lot of moving parts, any one of them could be on to something as we do not know what the outcome will be. How ever the model initializes the moving parts is the eventual outcome. Complexity of a Miller B. From climo, they are usually not too favorable for the Mid Atlantic, more so the Northeast and we are seeing those trends. Fact is, the 500 trough and upper low are not all that impressive until later in the game. 

3 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

At least it’s just the nam


.

Attention should be paid to it. The NAM even beyond 48 hours can give insight into how the smaller details may be evolving. Guidance is guidance. We shouldn’t look at it’s QPF verbatim, but more so to understand it’s evolution.

NAM 500 trough is swinging across positively tilted and the upper low is closed, but the best forcing is generally north of where the closed circulation crosses. Trough needs to swing across neutral or even a bit negative tilt. Coastal does not get captured or tuck where it needs to and we torch, stay out of the CCB. 

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sup peeps. I'm new here. How much for Rockville?

The chill is back. Cool breeze man. 

Most of the meaningful snow will happen on the front end thump if these trends continue. 

The concerns we had all along are rearing their ugly heads. Now that the pieces of energy are coming onshore, models are clueing in on them. Biggest change from yesterday is the 500 pattern. Trough tilt has gone more positive and that will push the best forcing out of our area. Transfer delayed, not much phasing. Precip in two phases and no CCB. That will not get it done in a Miller B.