burgertime

Just now, rduwx said:

I peaked at the old black and whites and it appears to be a WNC special also.  LP tracks slightly inland like the 12z gfs.  Hopefully better maps will give more detail.

Yea I'm only out to 87 but it looks like it's probably gonna track that direction. It's closed off before the GFS though which could make things interesting. 

3 minutes ago, Wow said:

Slower and digs further west which will amp it up too much and allow the axis to go negative further west and draw up a ton of WAA east of the ULL.  Needs to back off of that some.

I for the life of me still can't understand when and where the perfect negative tilt is.

CMC is quicker with the energy out to 78. 

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Wasn't there some talk earlier about how the gfs has a tendency to try and slam LPs into CAD a little too aggressively in it's modeling?

Yea it's certainly done that in the past. It seemed a little strange to me how that low tracked but I guess it's also plausible due to it being slower. Euro should tell the tale today. If it keeps things suppressed then folks in RDU can breath a sigh of relief. Also we're still 4 days out. 

This is a stout ULL. Sort of reminds me of March 2009(???). 

From March 2009

Precip type per GFS

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Surface temps are very cold in NC as well. Where the warm nose does arrive could mean lots of sleet and ZR

IF the GFS is right then that ULL will help drive out that warm nose for those on the edge of this. Want to see what the Euro does cause the NW trend will happen so we need suppression on our side now. 

Look with caution those of you in ENC

This run it's a WNC special. Low tracks across RDU...but it's a strong ULL so if that is verbatim it's probably creating a ton of cold air with it. 

@117 it's a two contour closed low so it's a monster. But more warm air with this run.  Check out hr 123. Still think this probably overcomes the warm air for most. 

It's def not as suppressed due to our northern energy retreating a bit. 

Just now, Sandstorm94 said:

That is going to hurt...

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

It's still gonna get the job done for NC but lots of warm air south of it. Low is still closed but it's got a positive tilt at 114 

Closed off @102. This really isn't far off from the 00z run. 

Still looks like a blockbuster. Slower and slightly more of positive tilt vs. 00z. to my eye. 

@81 the GFS looks a bit slower. Closer to the Euro, but it still has two strong parcels of energy starting to interact in the west.  Our energy in the NE is further west which is gonna suppress this a little more than the 00z if I had to guess. 

Early guess on the 12z GFS is that it and the Euro are starting to come to an agreement and meeting in the middle. Out to 72 and some slight changes between it and the 00z run last night. It still looks really good though. So get the popcorn ready. 

1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

I did not know that was the origin. I implore everyone to not get too caught up in the Diet ECMWF.

Yea it was essentially the German NAM. It was then updated to cover more areas here. It does really well here especially at around 90 hours or so. But I've seen it bust pretty hard here as well. 

5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

For everyone watching we need that ridge in the northwest to act as the highway to to the south. The energy in the NE to play the perfect game of suppression/relief and for the 00z GFS to work out some northern energy to drop down and juice our system. 

Here's a gif of what to look for. Red is the "highway". Purple is the energy in the NE. The arrow is pointing to the phase that juices the system. 

For everyone watching we need that ridge in the northwest to act as the highway to to the south. The energy in the NE to play the perfect game of suppression/relief and for the 00z GFS to work out some northern energy to drop down and juice our system. 

Just now, Cheeznado said:

The trend is the only thing worth looking at on the ICON and it is good. All else is noise. Lets not clog up the thread with every panel of the models quite yet, especially the lesser poorer performing ones.

Bingo. It's hilarious to me a model made specifically for Germany who europeans mainly use for short range is used so often here. (me being the worst offender of course) 

2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Anyone post ICON snow maps?

It's trending towards the GFS 

Someone needs to show the individual EPS panels of the Euro I'll bet a lot of them are total crush jobs. 

6z EPS again goes towards the GFS. Not the monster GFS is but a nice low track with an I-85 special. RDU east across much of the state is 4+. Not so far east with that 4+ as the 00z. Sorry @ILMRoss

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The 6z GFS retrogrades the low back inland in NC. That is definitely not what we want on that run.

6z EPS has the look you want. 

6z EPS is gonna look good. Energy is digging more. Better look in the NE compared to the 00z.