rclab

33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

You should be thankful model guidance isnt always perfect. Otherwise we wouldnt have jobs. 

Sure you will, the Atmospheric Professionals will become MMOM’s: Model Maintenance Oversight Meteorologists. As always..... 

6 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

I'll believe when I eat one my toilet will be on fire

A Preparation H Bomb, as always.... 

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pull my stinger out your behind and move forward 

Like other insects you may not survive the experience, my sympathies. As always.

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Making a prediction  for the upcoming winter in October is foolish. 

Anthony, you can remove the “in October” from your sage sentence and use it ongoing. As always ..... 

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Leaf peeping?

Please be careful; the trunk may not be as forgiving on your way down. As always ....

40 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Add some mythology to the story you want to tell yourself. I find hell to be an appropriate analogy for where we are going and this is something we have collectively set out to become.

40 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Add some mythology to the story you want to tell yourself. I find hell to be an appropriate analogy for where we are going and this is something we have collectively set out to become.

40 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Add some mythology to the story you want to tell yourself. I find hell to be an appropriate analogy for where we are going and this is something we have collectively set out to become.

“Hell” ah mythology is no stranger to you either. As always ....

2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

Such a philosophy is at odds with Capitalism. I know I will keep hammering this idea until we see the changes required to avert this catastrophe.

The only problem I am beginning to encounter is the fact that anthropogenic global warming may be unavoidable (regardless of the economic system in place) but the extinction event is not a certainty. Important distinction

My long term optimism is not as robust. “Not a certainty” well, may your fine statement be heard by whomever or whatever gives us comfort. As always .....

26 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I like to make you guys feel old. Two years until I'm 30. Joined Eastern freshman year of HS. Didn't even have a driver's license. 

Jay, I found the old Eastern weather forums while using Microsoft’s original web tv it was their attempt to drag us into, what was then, the technical present. I considered myself old then and that was, at your young age, before you knew  what “it” was probably used for. As always....

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some climate scientists have calculated that the commitments made in the Paris Agreement only go about 50% of the way toward what's necessary to avoid warming above 1.5°C.

The question/plea, at least in our nation, stands; when will all of us be willing to sacrifice/suffer for the greater good of every one of us? As always .....

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah I don't know ... I was being an asshole. But he's lost credibility in my mind years ago due to quite obvious pandering tactics involving drama/publication efforts.. .Leaving it at that.. 

Confession is good for the soul even when it’s not necessary, besides you were just living up to your screen name. As always ....

5 hours ago, uncle W said:

I heard flurries was the forecast in 47...great bust...

1947...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52878037/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52878066/

 

Thank you for the attachments, Unc

My father told me, when I asked him about it, that it started, got heavy and just kept going. Surface transportation ground to a halt. Many of the trolly lines, still active in the city, certainly weren’t going anywhere. My dad said he hated the snow, yet he was the first one outside when the flakes started to fall. When snow was on the ground a week or so after Christmas, he would create a snow bank, place our large dried discarded tree in it and light it up. Made for quite a brief show on Bay Ridge Oarkway/75th st. Christmas tree burning was a ritual in those days, probably a felony today. Dad was a closet weenie but until his last dat with us, I would never have had the courage to tell him..  As always .....

34 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Think Dec 47 was correctly forecasted..I was born 11 years later,so who knows

You must have had your first experience playing in the snow during winter 60-61. If so only photos or parents/siblings could confirm. Thank you for the reply, as always .....

11 hours ago, KEITH L.I said:

Lindsay and Jan 78 were the best busts when I was growing up.They expected mostly rain on both.There were many bad busts in the 60s and 70s. March 3rd 71 was supposed to be a snowstorm.We ended up with a little wet snow in the beginning,then a quick change to rain.There were a few in the late 60s with Heavy Snow Warnings and you woke up to party sunny.Stars out at night was a bad sign lol

I was in College in Ark. for the Lindsey storm and was a letter carrier for the 78, “ it’s supposed to rain disaster” I remember the radio blurbs saying the change to rain would occur very quickly. 13 inches later the were right. If you count freezing drizzle as rain.  I was only 8 months old for the Dec. 47 storm, I could look it up but maybe  Unc  knows, off hand, if that one was a surprise or, for the time, properly forecast. As always ...

6 hours ago, Sal Blandino said:

 

Sal, why suffer here? The desert states awaits. Everything you’ve described is there. Brilliant cool to cold nights with a tapestry of stars that would rival Van Gogh's masterpiece. The days would be filled with brilliant light as the night bowed to the ascension of Ra. For you a paradise that the I 95 urban environment will not duplicate. You should rush to enjoy it, albeit being wary of the occasional rattler, scorpion and dust storm. A small price considering what your leaving behind. I’m to old for adventure I will stay, listen to and feel the rain , snow, and wind driven spray of an angry sea. May we both find peace. As always .....

49 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said:

I would love to see this in mid December. Can't imagine seeing that the end of September!

So would I but locally it may be difficult, ongoing, to see it any time at all. As always ......

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I saw a snow plower today

Winter is coming !!!

Good looking out, Anthony.  Better to be prepared nice and early to deal with the salt drifts.As always .....

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center video on this year's Arctic sea ice extent minimum:

 

 

“This Too Shall Pass” are four words that always gave me comfort. In reference to the video above I believe those four words are being answered by another four words: “Now You’ll Get Yours”. As always ......

On 9/18/2019 at 6:46 PM, forkyfork said:

nov 28

Keep the Turkey warm, and yourself also. As always ......

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Correct. Seasons in seasons is all we ask for.

Actually the final lyric of the theme music from the movie The Summer of 42 would be nice. As always .....

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting, so you think it'll take that long - 

My guess, no. It could take that long.   Like anything in this weather game, timing change is the last frontier of technological advancement because as is ... we're really not that good at it.  How often does the ambit of tech and its constituent entangled web of interconnected methods all tell us that it'll definitely get hot(cold) in two weeks, only to have it get hot(cold) in a month?  Meanwhile, forecast' or not, I've seen whole scale changes sweep through continents in a single day.   Just as well ... I've seen step down alterations, where the canvas seemed to carry paint of both regimes, simultaneously, for a long while before committing.   

However, I don't think the latter is favored this year?  Probably not favored in any year since 2000 for that matter, and most likely not so in the future.

Here's why:    Global Warming ... quite plausibly  ( so admittedly supposition ) another in a myriad of emergent properties no one knew would happen because of GW jolting, too.

How's that for necessarily terse ... One could write Flowers For Algernon quality prose to describe this shit, and in today's society it seems mice would ironically demonstrate the better comprehension.   

Short version, when pattern changes occur for colder or hotter, the difference before and after tend to be greater than they used to be.

"Used to be" - that always meant Millennial time spans... But in this context? Single normal human live's are afflicted.  And changes are empirically observable in the environment emerging at a faster rate than model(s) projected GW impacts would register. 

So, that specifically behavior, the difference between warm and cool patterns, may not be a metric that's evaluated in climate models anyway.  They're not really designed for that discrete level probability.  But we're seeing that right now, today, in the models ( for example). 570 to nearly 580 dm thickness's pervade warm sectors, while snow falls in clumps 500 km away, and not merely caused by local topographic forcing, rather ... at synoptic scales.   Systems are rich in gradients these days. And this is true at pattern boundaries, as well; which is intuitively pleasing because ding ding ding, events happen ( or tend to ) at those seams. 

That said ... the way Global Warming effects all this seasonal change stuff is interesting - and I have other Mets that agree with me ... even though saying  that no longer caries the gravitas it used to ... Wild digression in-coming: this post Industrial Revolution has given so much proxy and power ( actually, more succinctly ...the ability to evade the consequence of bad decision making) to the individual, they no longer have to rely upon the million 500 thousand years of evolutionary cooperative instincts to survive. Thus, affording them the ability to flout advice. People deny this shit because they can. So, when it feels better to watch porn, eat twinkies, soak in psychotropic drugs either literally or via emanation, the "get to" impugn the very sources that were always charged with the responsibility to veracity. 

Distrust and fake truth paranoia emerged along the way, and is coming to a pernicious parallax in history - and is causing a fracturing of the very institutions and "faith" in the system the Industry helped create ...  Man, that's a special kind of f'ed right there.   And so... bring this home, no one believes that the Hadley Cell is bloated and hot.   ( see how I did that ...? )

Anyway, the polar regions ...although empirically warming at a faster rate - like dem total full-of-crap dumbass scientists report - are still mightily cold by comparison to the lower latitudes ( Hadley). The gradient between, in the interim ( ...prolly the next 10 to 50 years depending upon which climate modeled apocalypse one ascribes to...) is larger than it [ probably ] has been in the preceding ...well, epoch. 

It's probably time to start thinking in terms of having crossed over into a new epoch and in fact, I've heard the phrasing, holocene vs anthropocene bandied about in recent years.  Makes sense to me...  Humanity, for better or worse, is a geological force.  Our power registers above the back ground din of other processes that have come in and out of the greater "Gaia" system - but did/do not comparatively leave/have anywhere close to size and vibrating footprint.  That, imho, put us on the list, even if we are at the lower end of the significance scale.  And, seeing as those totally dumbass scientist warn that long after we've completed our [ clear intent of .. ] phasing ourselves out ... the effects of us having been here will continue to rage onward for 10,000 years, hm -   

So for the next few decades we'll likely have autumns ( and springs for that matter ) where dividing lines are enhancing baroclinicity. Lower tropospheric temperature variances between "cold" and "hot" regions, is greater.  When the sun slips below the Equator ... that gets more noticeable too, because it's ability to modulate the cold regions is obviously attenuated(ing).  Comparing pre-Industrial or now... warm arieas below the 35th ( or so) latitude stay warmer later as seasonal migration inextricably encroaches from the N...  

 

Perhaps a defendant of Algernon will deposit seeds on the grounds above Charlie Gordon’s grave and the flowers will take care of themselves.

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks for sharing this. I believe a number of climate scientists were puzzled why the latest research and evidence concerning the recent increase in strong hurricanes wasn't fully considered.

Thank you also Chubbs. What frightens me is the fact, as stated, that the analysis was largely ignored. Somewhat like having a mystery where everyone, in fact, knows who did it but no one wants to admit it. And when the bell tolls it will toll for thee.

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I was reading about that a few months ago. It's another observation in a cornucopia that suggest unanticipated accelerations - to put it nicely. Changes are simply outpacing many model-designs of when/where we would begin noticing specific warming effects amid specific systems - quite possibly because the "Kevin Baconism" of the larger gestalt and sensitive transmitted relationships are just unknown.

It is ... disconcerting.  I feel - personally - with growing conviction, that there could be "jolt" events.  Scale and degree of "cataclysm" to be determined, but short duration adjustments that really didn't have much hope of being well predicted because they are/were brought about by previously unanticipated emerging "synergistic" feed-backs.   I read a paper once about the basal flow rates of Antarctic causing the land-based aspect of the western ice sheet to accelerate well beyond climate models, and something similar in Greenland may already be taking place. 

If these thing happen, then...relative too, even accelerate further - no one can say that can't happen, when acceleration is already empirical and that's pretty much adios muchachos global coastal environments when/if land based ice lets go en masse.  

 

When serious, full political spectrum action plans are implemented, I wonder which floor of the UN building the floating docks will be moored to. As always ...

23 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

A dry spell is usually in college or early twenties when trying to find yourself...flash drought is when you really screw up and your significant other makes you sleep on the couch.

When your young p, you end up doing yourself. When your old, yourself ends up doing you. As always ...

58 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

shame yours did.

Even when the Forkster is All Wrong, as is his comment reply on Anthony’s engagement. He may actually mean well in his own disjointed way. As always ......

46 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Im going to phoenix. A desert. It hasnt rained in months.

 

 

theres a flood watch. Who do i speak to about this bs?

Noah. As always.....