canderson

The NWS could use your help

The weenie suicide rate in the MA thread makes Wall Street in 1929 blush.

Feels like really nice 6-10” as a baseline storm for Harrisburg to me.

Extrapolation says game on

This setup reminds me of the New Year 2000 ice storm in East Texas, but with a lot more sleet. We were without power 12 days then. it SUCKED.

Holy moly next eeek will be COLD.

Oh no you are smart to alert it. It spurs good discussion! Don’t die of heat exhaustion please!

Yup! 1/5 So here's my take on the impending #WinterStorm this weekend. Over the last few days, I've seen talk of this being a VA/Delmarva special & have been quiet due to skepticism on such an outcome. Let's take a step back & see why this could continue trending even farther north.. 2/5 First, the "50/50 Low" is displaced north. When combined with a trough axis going neutrally tilted over the Plains, this allows heights to rise over the Eastern States & gives the storm room to track farther north/west. A PNA ridge axis over the E. Pac also supports this.. 3/5 Next, the timing/interaction between a powerful, cutoff low within the #JetStream's southern branch & northern branch disturbance diving southward out of Canada will be vital. A sharper trough/more "digging" of the northern branch & faster ejection of the Baja low will.. 4/5 .. allow the systems to "phase," or join forces, sooner &, therefore, strengthen more quickly. Basically, the Baja low can get out ahead of & its energy then be absorbed into the northern branch of the Jet Stream sooner (EURO/CMC/ICON). A slower Baja low comes out flatter.. 5/5 .. & gets suppressed by the northern branch system due to a messier interaction with it (GFS). See the GIFs below for how each model handles the subsequent evolution of the system. My bet is on a continued trend N/W with mixing issues perhaps well into PA.. #StayTuned

@Eskimo Joe makes a great point about the CMC not being viable because it has the L running directly into and crushing the H

It’s a religious experience.

Epic, epic epic ice storm back home if this happens.

Those nam runs 2 days before that storm were insane. Then they verified.

CTP has this gem from this morning’s discussion Details will become increasingly clear over the next day or two, but now is the time to prepare for a potentially significant winter storm that will affect parts of Central PA Saturday and Sunday.

I don’t think it’ll be but winds. Breezy but not 35+. I’ll let someone way smarter correct me if needed!

6 was my low. It’s funny the gfs had everyone questioning suppression and 12 hours later everyone is concerned about amplification

It gets sleet really close to the PA border. I have read here in those huge 90s storms it sleeted here during them too.

That N trend still has a hundred or so miles to go imo. I wonder if sleet makes it into the DC metro area.

Welcome to the party, 0z GFS

When is the last time the VA southern border north to Albany NY had a foot of snow in the same storm? That has to be pretty rare.

It’s NAM extrapolation time!!

We are of course focused on snow but there is a crippling ice storm coming for the South - from the Carolinas to Dallas. Parents in Texas already in a winter storm watch.

CTP being rightful caution in their afternoon update KEY MESSAGE 2: Medium-range guidance remains consistent in depicting a large-scale winter storm this weekend, tracking from the mid-South across the Mid-Atlantic states. The devil, however, will be in the details, with a tight northern edge snowfall gradient expected to be at play. Where exactly this gradient zone sets up is highly uncertain, with the potential for it lie somewhere across PA. In all probability, the highest winter storm impacts will be south of the Mason-Dixon line, but again with a tight snowfall gradient and the anticipation of heavy snowfall where jet dynamics are maximized, this situation bears watching. Please stay tuned for the latest forecast updates.

The perfect storm amount imo. Not too much to absolutely destroy a week, but enough to kill a a day or two. Fluffy snow makes it even better since it’s easier to clear! FWIW Broadway show runners are already messaging about potential snow impacts.

Thank you