canderson

@Eskimo Joe makes a great point about the CMC not being viable because it has the L running directly into and crushing the H

It’s a religious experience.

Epic, epic epic ice storm back home if this happens.

Those nam runs 2 days before that storm were insane. Then they verified.

CTP has this gem from this morning’s discussion Details will become increasingly clear over the next day or two, but now is the time to prepare for a potentially significant winter storm that will affect parts of Central PA Saturday and Sunday.

I don’t think it’ll be but winds. Breezy but not 35+. I’ll let someone way smarter correct me if needed!

6 was my low. It’s funny the gfs had everyone questioning suppression and 12 hours later everyone is concerned about amplification

It gets sleet really close to the PA border. I have read here in those huge 90s storms it sleeted here during them too.

That N trend still has a hundred or so miles to go imo. I wonder if sleet makes it into the DC metro area.

Welcome to the party, 0z GFS

When is the last time the VA southern border north to Albany NY had a foot of snow in the same storm? That has to be pretty rare.

It’s NAM extrapolation time!!

We are of course focused on snow but there is a crippling ice storm coming for the South - from the Carolinas to Dallas. Parents in Texas already in a winter storm watch.

CTP being rightful caution in their afternoon update KEY MESSAGE 2: Medium-range guidance remains consistent in depicting a large-scale winter storm this weekend, tracking from the mid-South across the Mid-Atlantic states. The devil, however, will be in the details, with a tight northern edge snowfall gradient expected to be at play. Where exactly this gradient zone sets up is highly uncertain, with the potential for it lie somewhere across PA. In all probability, the highest winter storm impacts will be south of the Mason-Dixon line, but again with a tight snowfall gradient and the anticipation of heavy snowfall where jet dynamics are maximized, this situation bears watching. Please stay tuned for the latest forecast updates.

The perfect storm amount imo. Not too much to absolutely destroy a week, but enough to kill a a day or two. Fluffy snow makes it even better since it’s easier to clear! FWIW Broadway show runners are already messaging about potential snow impacts.

Thank you

Verbatim when would this start?

10 is my low

Are we at the point we start conceptionizing a 112 hour NAM?

The gfs has been really really bad lately, right? I mean they all seem to suck now, but it’s been behind the pack iirc.

Winds might hit 40 tomorrow and the night.

Lord have mercy

Link please!

Oh I remember that storm well. But couldn’t recall any recent. That’s crazy it’s been so long.