canderson

Like all things severe, it can crash down for no expected reasons lol But Friday seems primed for a big outbreak.

The 3k NAM for the MS Valley through the Ohio Valley is WILD for Friday. Serious storms. Very interested to see if SPC issues its largest-ever MOD warning tomorrow. Between spinning tops and the wind shear getting pushed down - Jesus. If timing works out Saturday in PA I’d think sees an enhanced - timing doesn’t look ideal but who knows. Just depends on the front timing. If it can pass through from 2-5 pm all bets are off. Next Tuesday/Wednesday probably is a repeat of Friday/Saturday. Any cold front over the next few weeks unless the jet changes is going to cause major storms. We fly Tuesday afternoon - might not happen. Time will tell!

Hey did your area have any power outages / trees down Saturday? Friend out in Butler is still without power and lost a ton of trees. I know it’s way east but not sure if it got rough up north near Clearfield.

Here is the latest from CTP’s afternoon discussion: Ahead of and after the cold front sweeps through, expect gusty winds to develop thanks to a deepening surface low over Quebec. The wind threat looks formidable with this system and gusts in excess of 40mph appear plausible for most of the area Saturday afternoon.

Gusts look very strong though, it sounds like (50-65 mph) from reading around.

We do get strong winds that aren't mentioned quite a bit, but I think in general it lines up pretty decently.

Anyone have access to the GFS wind product? @MAG5035? Mid Atlantic thread says it is showing winds 60-65 mph Saturday. Which doesn't seem too far from unlikely given what's coming but CTP just mentions 40+ so far.

SPC has the mid Atlantic in its discussion for a day 8 threat. And the area of a enhanced on the day 3 forecast is HUGE. Not sure I've ever seen that large an area. Going to be a very, very active 4 or so weeks for severe weather. PA looks to get in the game if not Saturday then next Wednesday. A 100+ mph jet stream will do that for you. My flight next week is going to be buuuuumpy lol

Also I land in Austin next Tuesday and the high will be around 95 it seems. Might hit 100 just to the city’s west. That is insanity for early April. Mid 80s is common but not pushing 100.

And with the polar jet and upper latter in flux, April looks rough for anyone east of Colorado possibly. This creates super fast systems that can spin up tons of severe weather. I’m in Texas for a week starting next week so expect some gnarly stuff (and to miss some here).

I’m getting intrigued for severe Saturday, especially the western parts of our region.

May 26 2011 HBG had a big storm that downed 3 massive trees on Front Street. It ripped a gutter of my house too. Lots of down signs, poles, trees, etc all throughout the city. Here is one on the pics I took that day.

Huge front with big winds coming Saturday for sure. I'm not sure about high wind warnings, but would expect lots of wind advisories in the plains, Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic. PA might even see a good bit of severe weather Friday evening/overnight. Not tornadic but some strong storms and hail will be possible.

To be fair ice is ice so what’s the difference? Haha … Until it gets larger than golf ball sized then well you have issues. I’ve seen softball size hail - that was something.

Hail isn’t always cylinder - I’ve seen a metric ton of it and it can be boxy, long and somewhat narrow, etc.

.15” on the gauge today. It was sunny due probably half that amount too. Weird afternoon.

I was wrong. It rained for 5 minutes, sun's back out now. Had less than .1"

No kidding. Looking at radar, this light rain might last all of 10 minutes.

I thought it was supposed to rain all day? It's sunny and mostly clear at 1:45. 65 degrees.

I have the windows open - zero breeze here.

Tons of spinning in these storms the last 10 minutes. Wow.

I haven’t touched a snow shovel since 2020. Maybe next year.

Olympic Valley, CA - crazy! https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cplnl5iojFB/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

There have been fishing boats on the water for a month already here. Tipsy feels like a Jine day to me, honestly.

For sure. We went to Rita’s and the line has like 25 people! Then came back and weeded more - this week stuff is going to absolutely explode growing.