canderson

Eyeballing 1.5” at 5 am. CTP has removed the word sleet from Harrisburg’s grid forecast; 8-14” predicted still. Crossing fingers to get to 12”.

It busted pretty bad in Oklahoma and ET iirc - it has Tulsa getting a ton of s kw that hasn’t happened

It’s NAM vs NWS

Can’t wait - regardless we’re getting is heavy snow! Reason to celebrate.

I plan to be a first shovel at 1 p.m. if it flips after it’ll have snow on the grown, if all snow basically cut in half. Praying to baby Jesus it’s all snow and I get 12”. That’s my goal - a foot.

Basically if rates are fairly heavy you stay snowy. When it gets light it flips. We went to Devon for dinner and it felt like the last night before Jesus returns. Wall to wall people celebrating life.

Parents reporting near Longview say it’s been dry for hours, no power issues, and generally a minimal issue since precip ended (they just drove to my sister’s place about 25 miles away without issue). Round two looks to have sleet more than any freezing rain.

Amen! And it’ll stick around a long while afterward too, which is pretty rare overall

Roughly what time would MDT flip to sleet according to that NAM (which I think is pretty dialed in)? Was realy wanting 12” snow but don’t think it’s happening. Oh well.

HRRR is an all out ice storm for the 95 crew, it seems, and gets more than .10” of zr in Lancaster and York counties.

Latest disco from CTP Minor adjustments made to hourly precip type across the Lower Susq Valley and Somerset County later Sunday morning into Sunday evening as models have become more bullish on a deeper layer of Wet Bulbs in the +2 to +4C range nosing into Somerset County and areas SE of I-81 in the Lower Susq Valley (within the 5-9 KFT AGL layer), leading to a mix or even a change to sleet there. The wedge of slightly above zero C wet bulbs aloft, spreading in from the south/southwest following the strong isent lift at the nose of the 65 to 75 KT LLJ (will be 2-3 kft thicker across Lancaster and York Counties, compared to the Laurel Highlands), so snow totals across the far SE part of the CWA could be 10" or slightly less - depending on the duration of the sleet.

There was just enough time between those February storms for the city to get its act together.

Today is the anniversary of the 2016 storm that dropped the most snow in a single event ever in Harrisburg. 32” was actually too much snow - had to have front-end loaders and dump trucks remove snow from our area to get out many days later.

Shovel early, while still snowing, so you have a base layer of snow to help the sleet not fuse with pavement

Crossing fingers Dr No is Dr Yes

A true nowcast storm!

Yea they’re doing well it seems - my extended family SE of them not so much.

That’s part 2. Part 1 underperformed for them. We’ll see how it goes the res if the way. Sleeting this am in the Ozarks is a bad sign to me. My parents have had no precip for 2.5 hours now. Edit: it’s not a bust - just not meeting modeling from last night outside the NAM.

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff.

CTP with some humor this morning Forecast remains largely on track with only minor changes compared to the previous cycle. What could go wrong? Typical uncertainty surrounding the depth and northward push of the mid level warm nose. This shows up the most along and south of the PA Turnpike where sleet/freezing rain could cut down on snow totals.

This makes the fact we are talking sleet and zr honestly quite infuriating

The last GFS lost the weekend blizzard in its entirety lol

The NWS is going to look very bad if the nam is right. Yikes.

Ok so let’s say we know meet is coming. Should we shovel the 10” or whatever if slow late afternoon or let it all fall and deal with it Monday as a frozen icebox?

1-3 6-10 2-4 for me they say