canderson

The NAMs and HRR both keep the extreme severe stuff south of the PA border.

They’re ok - no damage - but neighbor (about 1/4 mile down - it’s Texas remember) lost a part of their roof.

Funny, my parents are currently in the storm shelter because a tornado warning there (in E Texas).

Didn’t want to clutter the other thread. Thank you for that tremendous write up. It was fantastic. Tomorrow will be rough down your way.

Thanks for this. Remarkable this occurred up here back then. Today? Much more likely with climate changes.

I should have mentioned that - yea he’s writing for VA/MD specifically. We don’t have the prime atmospheric conditions VA will have. But that’s mostly for tornadic activity. The QLCS will mix down major winds. LWX mentions this in this afternoon’s write up which I have to say is much more in-depth than CTP’s. Granted however their entire coverage area is in the mod risk. CTP’s isn’t and they have a more dynamic atmosphere than we do. I don’t see tornadoes as much of a thing north of BWI. Once any earlier low stratus are scoured out, expect ample diurnal heating as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. Prolonged south to southeasterly flow should also raise dew points into the upper 50s to low 60s. The seasonably warm/moist low-levels coupled by strong forcing aloft and cyclonic turning of the winds with height will make for a very active convective day. While the degree of vertical shear is impressive on its own (0-6 km values around 55 to 65 knots), this comes with more than sufficient buoyancy levels as surface-based CAPE values push into the 500 to 750 J/kg range. The shear/instability combination will be conducive to supercell development, particularly for any discrete cells that form ahead of a likely squall line. Additionally, the degree of deep-layer shear should make this more of a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) which will be capable of tornadogenesis. Aside from any tornado risk, the strong cloud-bearing level winds should easily mix down in convective downdrafts. With 850-700 mb winds around 60-70 knots, any of this higher momentum air being transferred to the surface could yield surface wind gusts into the 65 to 75 mph range. Thus, SPC has a broad area of significant damaging wind potential (45-74%) advertised from I-81 eastward in their latest outlook.

One of the best posts you’ll read about this event

I remember reading about this back in that 2012 storm we had. Crazy that happened up here.

To today - strong east winds are so rare

I’ll have to go read that new thread I guess. C MD down into the Carolinas - especially S of MD is in the big time tornado crosshairs.

Caveat seems to always applies up here though - cape isn’t that high. If we don’t clear out and get a few rounds of early afternoon showers and even t-storms it realy ramps down the ability for a qlcs to sustain itself here.

I’m bad at timing lol but rush hour give or take an hour. The NAM is like 7 pm but they tend to have these events later than they actually are.

Put it this way: If that setup was in Dallas today it’d be a high risk and you’d probably see stovepipe tornadoes.

I moved to PA in 2006. I cannot recall a more favorable setup here than tomorrow for a QLCS packing 70-90 mph winds, hail and perhaps a tornado closer to the MD border. The fact it will be slower and later than it looked like a few days ago makes it even worse. It’s going to hit right after peak heating and soaring dews.

From CTP Within the line, embedded supercells could support concentrated tornadic winds in the midst of a potentially expansive area of damaging wind gusts.

Schools should have easy dismissals as well as companies tomorrow early afternoon. Edit HRRR has this later - post 5 pm so maybe not. It also has a devastating updraft embedded line from DC north through York. Everyone in this thread should prepare for a QLCS with 85 mph winds. Yse today to make sure you have a safe space with water, pillows to cover your head and a hatchet of some type.

Sorry

That’ll be bad for the crews who will be out trying restore power, cutting up fallen trees, helping those with roof damage and all

The disco is very bullish and if they mention it they likely go that way.

SPC basically said C MD on south to the piedmonts will be upgraded a level 4 risk.

@Voyager https://x.com/brody_wx/status/2032851932704886856?s=61&t=u98k6PBLbHMnYtCcWaeK4g

New day 3 is out Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SC TO SOUTHERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to widespread severe storms are likely on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds appears centered on parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the late morning to afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later outlooks. A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf. This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening. Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont. Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead of morning storms. Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture, setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into the afternoon.

NAM has an incredibly nasty QLCS rush hour ish Monday. It’d cause significant issues.

Today in 2017 I got 19” snow.

Get this! https://www.amazon.com/Hail-Protector-Portable-System-Coupes/dp/B07PLMRKF4/ref=sr_1_6?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.Fq8KpkXQICl1lRFiHN2gGRfIujITEDq_UYnDcPQHQwk0XNEwlH0OTZZ-81iwTePlP0D9KTv36pNkq6g_neRytOA7fXchlP2xFyfUFzuvVM5Tu2mfzfV6NjBhmQbnX-vKrV268hMOyaoqSgKDdXSXsP9Do-npVdS8jnOWUnYs1k0znYJ8SfLeu0jfoiJQS7AiFVu4bNlOq-3zEjSNByvf5bRjodEEsrdDV9Eh58JLAh75vNfOgFZFqom9GsfB_rHbqv33kXoarxtsw4oitGI3xuuRm9CaTbke1AYUb07wXMk.oynQzKBFAhQG9pKT7PWZ3PmisBguaGviRVWlr2gAXzc&dib_tag=se&keywords=hail+bubble+for+car&qid=1773499002&sr=8-6